CRYPTO₿IRB Profile picture
Mar 11, 2023 19 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Selling $BTC now might be a big mistake.

A thread🧵👇
1/ Disclaimer:

Please know that I will combine technical analysis, historical chart patterns, fundamental factors of #Bitcoin scarcity, and seasonal patterns in the next tweets. The future is unpredictable. Profits are not guaranteed. Losses are inevitable.

Ready? Let's roll👇
2/ As the #Bitcoin prices retraced ~20% from the peak, the 200-day mean trend moves sideways, regardless of the recent price drop. This confirms that the local breakdown of $21500 does not impact the long-term trend shift. Instead, it is a casual correction following a 65% surge.
3/ Overall, until proven wrong, $BTC is in a long-term accumulation zone within the $15500-25200 zone, a horizontal movement full of indecisive price action.

Local slides toward $18500 are possible without invalidating the dominant upward tendency.
4/ Full transparency: my trend system is cashed, and I hold no particular stake for $BTC to go up now. There's little bias.

The HTF Trailer trend indicator flashed a sell signal at $23700. The bears are in charge until the $21700 resistance is reclaimed.
5/ Locally, the magical $20000 level remains the main support level. Traders will often frame their minds at such round numbers, which are easy to remember.

It also coincides with the 200-day mean support, giving traders a reason for magical thinking (buy the support).
6/ In fear, traders act irrationally, falling for recency, cognitive dissonance, loss aversion, hindsight, and self-attribution to defend their egos. When markets move up, it’s their genius. When it dips, they’ll blame easy outside targets, politicians, influencers, or weather.
7/ The 9-year seasonal review suggests that March is consistently a bearish and losing month. With -64.39% annualized return and only 33.33% winning trades, #BTC investors should not put much trust in this month being bullish.
8/ On the contrary, the 11-year “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern proves strongly favorable odds for traders waiting to bid on the bullish April-May odds. The annualized return of +202.53% with over 72% winning trades gives an optimistic outlook for the next two months.

However,
9/ Following a sharp increase in mining difficulty over the last few weeks, the average production costs of a #Bitcoin block have jumped over $27000.

That puts miners under severe pressure again, as $BTC trades closer to $20000.
10/ Overall, #Bitcoin is now exposed to selling pressures, reinforced by the #SVBCollapse, inducing fears around the de-pegging of USDC.

Upon individual risk preferences, it is recommended not to be exposed to big investment risks ahead of the more bullish April-May season.
11/ On a more personal note, I found the $20000 support area attractive enough to add $50000 worth of $BTC to my long-term holdings.

My main trading account is waiting in cash until a trend breakout signal is confirmed by abnormal volatility.

12/ TIP:

If you want to know why 2023 should give multiple strong rallies for $BTC, check out the thread below
13/ You might also want to watch this $BTC video explanation for why you should not ignore the long-term trends.

14/ Even though $BTC has dropped $2000 since this video was published, the long-term trend shift suggests it is no longer the old 2022 bear. Learn why👇

15/ Before I go, you still have a chance to celebrate our discounted trading bundle launch in four days and win free $100 or a limited hoodie (1 of 100).

All you need to do is Like, Retweet, and Comment on the tweet below. Do it👊

16/ BONUS:

Here's how buying $BTC in April and selling in May could give a staggering 1000% profit!

17/ BOOM!

Congratulations!

By studying this thread, you've given yourself a chance to become a winner among 90% of traders who constantly lose money.

If you enjoy following my works, consider sharing the tweet below to help others learn, too!

Thanks🧡
18/ “If only there was a good rule of thumb to make money”

I've found there is one bet you can never lose.

110% guaranteed.

In four days, you'll get the last chance to learn this👇

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More from @crypto_birb

Aug 19
If you got rekt, your risk management sucks.

90% of traders blow up life savings by ignoring risk.

Here are 10 best practices to manage losses and come back stronger.

(Thread)🧵
1/ Humans are loss-averse: we fear losing more than we love winning.

That’s why unchecked emotions = bad trades.

Step one: accept losses as part of the game. Image
2/ Every trader goes through the grief cycle:

1. Denial

2. Anger

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4. Depression

5. Acceptance

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I'm starting the Bitcoin Cycle Peak Countdown.

We’re 997 days in. Halving math + history say the clock hits zero in a little over 70 days.

Here's alpha pack you need to exit before blow-off top.

(Thread)🧵 Image
1/ We’re really late.

Since the Nov 21, 2022 cycle low, it’s been 997 days — that’s about 90% through a typical Bitcoin bull market (which usually lasts 1,060–1,100 days, bottom to top).

But, price-wise, the best is yet to come... Image
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2016 halving ➡️ 2017 peak: 526 days

2020 halving ➡️ 2021 peak: 548 days

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This one puts next peak between Oct 19 & Nov 20, 2025 (518–580 days). Image
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Trading is simple but it's not easy.

Took me years of practice just to master the basics.

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Read 16 tweets
Jan 2
7 Market Indicators To Predict Cycle Top In 2025👇🧵

1. MVRV Z-Score: Image
MVRV Z-Score (Market Value/Realized Value) is BTC valuation model. Z-score shows how many standard deviations a value is from the mean.

Historically, BTC peaked only when MVRV pushed & stayed above 7.0.

Peak projection: $260k (2.62X from $97.2k)

Available @BitcoinMagPro Image
2. NUPL:

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap.

0 to 0.5: Moderate bull, potential growth.

0.5 to 0.7: Strong bull, profit-taking.

> 0.7: Market top area, high selling pressure.

Available @cryptoquant_com Image
Read 10 tweets
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2024 was wild for crypto traders & entrepreneurs.

With all the noise on 𝕏, it was easy to miss (real) alpha.

Let's grow your wallet & mindset in 2025.

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Their bull case predicts ETH will reach $154,000 by 2030 with a base case target of $22,000.

Here are 9 reasons behind their thinking: Image
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The ETH price target for 2030 is estimated to hit $22,000 per coin, driven by $66B in free cash flows. This estimate is based on a projection of Ethereum generating $66 billion in free cash flows by 2030 and applying a 33x valuation multiple. Image
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Read 13 tweets

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