Please know that I will combine technical analysis, historical chart patterns, fundamental factors of #Bitcoin scarcity, and seasonal patterns in the next tweets. The future is unpredictable. Profits are not guaranteed. Losses are inevitable.
Ready? Let's roll👇
2/ As the #Bitcoin prices retraced ~20% from the peak, the 200-day mean trend moves sideways, regardless of the recent price drop. This confirms that the local breakdown of $21500 does not impact the long-term trend shift. Instead, it is a casual correction following a 65% surge.
3/ Overall, until proven wrong, $BTC is in a long-term accumulation zone within the $15500-25200 zone, a horizontal movement full of indecisive price action.
Local slides toward $18500 are possible without invalidating the dominant upward tendency.
4/ Full transparency: my trend system is cashed, and I hold no particular stake for $BTC to go up now. There's little bias.
The HTF Trailer trend indicator flashed a sell signal at $23700. The bears are in charge until the $21700 resistance is reclaimed.
5/ Locally, the magical $20000 level remains the main support level. Traders will often frame their minds at such round numbers, which are easy to remember.
It also coincides with the 200-day mean support, giving traders a reason for magical thinking (buy the support).
6/ In fear, traders act irrationally, falling for recency, cognitive dissonance, loss aversion, hindsight, and self-attribution to defend their egos. When markets move up, it’s their genius. When it dips, they’ll blame easy outside targets, politicians, influencers, or weather.
7/ The 9-year seasonal review suggests that March is consistently a bearish and losing month. With -64.39% annualized return and only 33.33% winning trades, #BTC investors should not put much trust in this month being bullish.
8/ On the contrary, the 11-year “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern proves strongly favorable odds for traders waiting to bid on the bullish April-May odds. The annualized return of +202.53% with over 72% winning trades gives an optimistic outlook for the next two months.
However,
9/ Following a sharp increase in mining difficulty over the last few weeks, the average production costs of a #Bitcoin block have jumped over $27000.
That puts miners under severe pressure again, as $BTC trades closer to $20000.
10/ Overall, #Bitcoin is now exposed to selling pressures, reinforced by the #SVBCollapse, inducing fears around the de-pegging of USDC.
Upon individual risk preferences, it is recommended not to be exposed to big investment risks ahead of the more bullish April-May season.
11/ On a more personal note, I found the $20000 support area attractive enough to add $50000 worth of $BTC to my long-term holdings.
My main trading account is waiting in cash until a trend breakout signal is confirmed by abnormal volatility.
13/ You might also want to watch this $BTC video explanation for why you should not ignore the long-term trends.
14/ Even though $BTC has dropped $2000 since this video was published, the long-term trend shift suggests it is no longer the old 2022 bear. Learn why👇
15/ Before I go, you still have a chance to celebrate our discounted trading bundle launch in four days and win free $100 or a limited hoodie (1 of 100).
All you need to do is Like, Retweet, and Comment on the tweet below. Do it👊
We’re 997 days in. Halving math + history say the clock hits zero in a little over 70 days.
Here's alpha pack you need to exit before blow-off top.
(Thread)🧵
1/ We’re really late.
Since the Nov 21, 2022 cycle low, it’s been 997 days — that’s about 90% through a typical Bitcoin bull market (which usually lasts 1,060–1,100 days, bottom to top).
But, price-wise, the best is yet to come...
2/ Halving → peak timing is the market secret sauce:
2012 halving ➡️ 2013 peak: 366 days
2016 halving ➡️ 2017 peak: 526 days
2020 halving ➡️ 2021 peak: 548 days
2024 halving ➡️ 2025 peak: 550 days (?)
This one puts next peak between Oct 19 & Nov 20, 2025 (518–580 days).
VanEck is 9th largest ETF provider with $66.5B AUM.
Their bull case predicts ETH will reach $154,000 by 2030 with a base case target of $22,000.
Here are 9 reasons behind their thinking:
1) ETH Price Target: $22K by 2030?
The ETH price target for 2030 is estimated to hit $22,000 per coin, driven by $66B in free cash flows. This estimate is based on a projection of Ethereum generating $66 billion in free cash flows by 2030 and applying a 33x valuation multiple.
2) Portfolio Boost: 6% Crypto Allocation
Adding 6% crypto to a 60/40 portfolio boosts the Sharpe ratio, with a minor drawdown impact. Analysis of 169 sample portfolios showed that including 3% BTC and 3% ETH significantly improves the risk-adjusted returns.