Thread by @benraue

Today's blog post analyses preference data that could shed light into which way crossbenchers could jump if they find themselves in a kingmaker role in a hung parliament. #nswpol tallyroom.com.au/51212

Most of this data is based on the full ballot paper dataset. I don't know when this dataset will be available for 2023 but the 2019 data might still shed some light.

This chart shows how those who cast a '1' vote for the nine crossbenchers marked their prefs between ALP and Coalition.

GRN voters flowed very strongly to ALP. Greenwich and Butler had a noticeable lean to ALP but the exhaust rate for the INDs and Shooters was very high

Let's look at the 2PP for all voters in these seats.

Apart from the urban Greens seats, no major party wins the 2PP in any of the others outright. The Coalition leads five seats, with Labor leading in Lake Macquarie and the Greens seats.

It's worth noting the narrow Liberal win in Sydney - I suspect this is a creature of progressive voters not bothering to preference Labor. It probably isn't an accurate reflection of what would happen in Greenwich's absence.

Now I'm looking at the LC vote. Unsurprisingly GRN and Shooters were strong in the seats they won.

The right vote in the four rural independent seats (Lib/Nats, Shooters, One Nation etc) is dominant, but Sydney looks quite different. ALP + GRN + Keep Sydney Open polled over 51%.

This data demonstrates why it would be so hard for the Greens to not back a Labor government.

Piper and Greenwich have more room to move but their seats have a leftward lean. I think it would be quite hard for the other four rural independents to back Labor.

It's worth noting that Roy Butler generally has a larger Labor presence on each of these metrics compared to the other rural independents. #nswpol

Finally this is the first part of a chart showing the primary vote origin of all votes for each of the candidates in the 2CP in these seats. Interesting to see which other parties contributed the most to these MPs winning. #nswpol

BTW today's SMH profile of Alex Greenwich by @JordsBaker features Clover Moore describing his seat as "notionally blue" - technically true but I think misleading, and ignores that Greenwich's voters are mostly from the left.

Oh also @shane_easson has reminded me that Sydney is now notionally Labor post-redistribution - his calculations are 50.5%, mine 50.8%.