#CPI “really doesn't matter. What has happened over the last 3 days has done Powell's job for him. Credit creation at banks will collapse and the economy will slow even in a good scenario. Inflation is almost certain to taper off as a result ..”. (con’t)
- JPM desk
2.
Any rally “on the view that the Fed does not need to raise anymore is silly IMO. If they don't need to raise it is because of downside risks to growth and systemic risk to the banking system... Not a positive.”
3.
“.. I recognize we are close to the low end of the range, but I’d argue the range has changed and we are back in sell rallies mode .. we could see a re-pricing of yields as we get an update on the DOTS. Terminal rate expectations are under 5%, down from 5.50% last week.”
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“.. We will be monitoring the weekly data on commercial bank deposits and money market mutual funds .. currently available through the week of March 1 ..”
3.
“.. We obviously are more convinced that the 10-year bond yield peaked at 4.25% .. We are less certain that the S&P 500 made a bear-market bottom on October 12, but that’s still our position. As for our economic outlook, we remain in the soft-landing camp.”
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. we see the situation at #Twitter potentially exposing $TSLA to risk along a number of areas including: (a) consumer sentiment/demand, (b) commercial partnerships, (c) government relations/support; and (d) capital markets support.” [Jonas]
2.
“.. $RIVN could emerge as a short-term beneficiary of any potential commercial disruption/eroding customer loyalty at Tesla. .. Even if 10% of the unwinding of the ‘Tesla trade’ was re-allocated into other auto stocks... this could have material sector ‘flow’ implications.”
MORGAN STANLEY: “Layoffs in the tech sector are making headlines. But while we expect a substantial labor market slowdown in the coming months, the tech sector likely reflects more idiosyncratic than macro factors. Overall, staffing remains lean ..”
2.
“.. The information sector accounts for only 3 million workers, less than 1.5% of total payrolls... More precisely, total tech layoffs since December of last year only sum 187,000 .. barely more than 0.1% of total US payrolls, which stood at more than 153 million in October.”
3.
“.. Tech and tech-adjacent businesses have also followed a very different path on hiring and staffing than the rest of the economy. .. Hiring freezes and layoffs are therefore more indicative of increasing discipline ..!and an adjustment to a weaker growth environment ..”
A great appearance on @Letterman, where she said her parents — worried about her acid problem — needed someone to talk some sense into her, so they called Cary Grant.
3.
Still one of the best GIFs of all time, @MarkHamill 💕
MORGAN STANLEY: has a 56-page report on inventory:
“.. We believe many will turn to aggressive discounting .. which is likely to spark a ‘race to the bottom’ as companies attempt to cut prices faster than peers and move out as much inventory as possible ..”
2.
“Based on a macro analysis of different industries, Consumer Retail, and IT Hardware appear most at risk while Machinery appears least at risk.”