Momentum Profile picture
Mar 17 8 tweets 3 min read
What would happen if $UBS takes over $CS?

Short 🧵👇🏼
If $UBS really takes over $CS, the new $UBS would become so big that there wouldn‘t be a Nr 2 in Switzerland any more. For decades.

We would have a $UBS on steroids.
The new $UBS would hold more than 50% of all deposits in Switzerland, it would have over 110k employees and it would manage over $4.5 trillion Assets under Management (AuM) with a market cap of $65 Billion. UBS would become the second largest employer in the country after Nestle.
The next largest Private Bank with an international setup like UBS is Julius Baer $BAER with $420 Billion AuM and a market cap of $12 Billion and 7k employees.
The new UBS would have more assets under management than $JPM, the largest Bank in the US with $3 trillion AuM but with a striking market cap of $370 Billion.
However, $UBS and $CS are archi-rivals. It‘s like Barca and Real Madrid becoming best friends and merging because they were forced to. Who can imagine that?

A forced marriage rately works.
But a part from that, would the Swiss regulator FINMA allow to have a monster bank with a monopoly in #Switzerland ?
The Swiss Competition commission (WeKo) wouldn‘t be happy about a takeover of $CS by $UBS since both institutions have a leading position in the Swiss banking sector.

swissinfo.ch/ger/alle-news-…

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More from @Momentopflop

Mar 18
There‘s a small fly attempting to fly through the glass of the windowpane.

It is imposible for the fly to try hard enough to succeed at breaking through the glass.

Not even with raw effort and determination. Image
Across the room the door is open. With only a fraction of the effort now being wasted, it could be free of this self-imposed trap.
Why doesn‘t the fly try another approach, sth dramatically different? What logic is there in continuing, until death, to seek a breakout with „more of the same“?

„Trying harder“ isn‘t necessarily the solution to achieving more.

Sometimes in fact, it‘s a big part of the problem.
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Jan 21
Has the stock market bottomed out?

MEGA 🧵👇
Let’s analyze the following pieces of this puzzle:

1. Inflation
2. Central banks
3. Corporate profits
4. Real estate
5. Consumer
6. Stock market
7. Conclusion
1. INFLATION

Inflation peaked in June (9.06%). Now it is at 6.45% (December 22) with a downward trend.

We have probably seen the peak and according to the Fed, everything indicates that inflation is going to continue to decline.
Read 45 tweets
Jan 21
Ha tocado fondo la bolsa?

MEGA 🧵

👇
Vamos a analizar las siguientes piezas de este rompecabezas:

1. Inflación
2. Bancos centrales
3. Ganancias corporativas
4. Bienes raíces
5. El consumidor
6. La bolsa
7. Conclusión
1. INFLACION

La inflación toco pico en Junio (9.06%). Ahora se encuentra en 6.45% (Diciembre 22) con tendencia bajista. Probablemente hayamos visto el pico y según la Fed, todo indica que la inflación va a seguir bajando.
Read 45 tweets
Oct 14, 2022
PERFORMANCE OF THE 11 S&P SECTORS IN 2022

🧵👇
JANUARY 2022

TOP
Energy +18.77%
Financial +0.03%
Consumer Staples -1.48%

FLOP
Telecom -10.17%
Consumer Discretionary -9.53%
Technology -8.75% Image
FEBRUARY 2022

TOP
Energy +7.07%
Industrial -0.84%
Health Care -0.97%

FLOP
Consumer Discretionary -4.07%
Technology -4.48%
Real Estate -3.48% Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 3, 2022
Is #CreditSuisse going bankrupt?

🧵👇🏼
Credit Suisse’ CDS (Credit Default Swaps) have soared.

„CDS“ are used as insurance against bankruptcy of an entity.

The price of #CS CDS jumped because there is a rumor in the market that #CS may be go belly up.
First of all, it must be stated that $CS is a systematically important bank, which DOESN’Tmean that the Swiss government will bail it out, but more, that the Bank must comply with high and strict liquidity requirements.

sif.admin.ch/sif/en/home/fi…
Read 11 tweets
Sep 20, 2022
What drives the price of #gold?

👇🏼🧵 (1/25)
Introductiion

Gold is often thought of as a hedge against everything. Most investors see gold as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks or stock market downturns. But it’s not as simple as that.
Introduction

Gold doesn’t generate any interests (like bonds) or dividends (like stocks).

Therefore, there is an opportunity cost to hold gold.

That means that if stock prices or interest rates rise, it is more attractive to hold stocks or bonds rather than gold.
Read 20 tweets

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