Keyser Soze Profile picture
Mar 18 5 tweets 2 min read
Time to talk about #gold. Gold does well during destabilizing deflations/depressions as real interest rates fall. It is a time tested (longest used currency) store of value (supply grows slowly due to mining activity). Gold is likely to burst to new all time highs as Fed panics.
One can physically own gold (always advised) or can own a fund that can be redeemed in gold (eg $PHYS ) or own precious metal streamers (eg $FNV) or own miners. Streamers are expensive now though and miners as a whole have a very bad LT return track record: Image
I currently preferred jr miners w/ a gold component because 1) the entire space is bombed out & dirt cheap, 2) super inefficient markets, 3) insane upside leverage if pick correctly, 4) company specific catalysts separate from gold bull market, 5) also get #copper bull.
Amongst my other activities, I have poured over hundreds of miners the past 2 years. Some high quality out there (eg Lundins, Friedland) but generally paying up for them. Interesting cheap plays like $ARIS.TO $CKG.V w/ huge resources & hurdles to get over.
My favorites are $DBG.V , $DSM.V , $LBC.V & $ESAU.CN. Why? 1st 3 are very large Au/Cu porphyry deposits (but puny market caps).

DBG is polymetalic & groundbreaking Sc.

DSM $1.5+ b NPV w/ low capex req & still room for expansion/improved recoveries

LBC massive, historical PFS.

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More from @James56487175

Mar 18
World will be significantly short # of tankers needed for what will be record WW oil demand over the next 3-5+ years (outside of ST hit from global recession). Mid-sized tankers (Suez/Afra) especially (sanctions).

Party’s just beginning.

$TNP $NMM $TK
(The “uninvestable” crew)
Although all 3 CURRENTLY have suboptimal capital allocation (low/no dividends), none of them have made materially value destructive actions in the past few years. Shareholder returns will come as we are early in the tanker cycle. Too cheap!

Insider ownership is ~22%, ~12% & ~39%
*TNP did dilute using an ATM in the past few years during the down cycle. They do this in down cycles, but not up cycles. ATM usage is over going forward.*
Read 9 tweets
Mar 7
Aside from Andy’s independent quotes, uninformed bashers fail to address need for a “dump” for something to be a mgmt pumpndump.👇 CEO has not sold in YEARS & has no exit liquidity event (>30%!) but for a buyout. What benefits him is long-term substance not short-term hype. Image
8 years with only two immaterial private market transaction
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Best risk-adj returns are often from investments with a lot of “hair”/“warts”/“red flags”, exactly why they are so cheap to buy! While many can indeed be fatal/frauds, the SKILL is the ability to see beyond bias/groupthink & identify rare opps where issues are not fatal/frauds. Image
I’ve certainly made mistakes over decades. But a somewhat diversified portfolio of uncorrelated ugly ducklings has been my best source of alpha.

The groupthink fakers on here who post about only the obvious surface issues but can’t generate verifiable alpha should be ignored.
Here’s a mini case study of waves of BS you see on here, with my first pound the table idea posted. There were a LOT more bashing posts that have since been deleted by self proclaimed “industry experts” who were generous with their industry lingo but sparse on brain cells. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Mar 5
You should ask the people you follow if they have ever been paid by anyone for their posts or paid by any companies they have touted.

I have never been paid by any of the companies I post about. I have never been paid for any of my posts. I have nerve charged a subscription fee.
No “finders fees”, no warrants, nada.

I just clip away massive investment returns every year. The portfolio is constantly at or neat all time highs.
My free posts makes me a threat to all the poorly performing industry “experts” or paid promoters or subscription services, many of who are absolutely buried in red right now. So they attack. But they have already dug the graves of their credibility…

Read 4 tweets
Feb 22
1/n

My Current Top 3 Ideas (Alphabetical)

$DBG.V / $DBLVF
$FEC.TO / $FECCF
$VXTR.V / $VXTRF

What do they have in common?

1) Base businesses likely worth 2x-3x+ current value.

2) Free options w/ better than coin flip odds of making them 5x-10x+.
2/n

DBG has drilled sufficient tonnage at slightly below average Cu/Au grades for the Golden Triangle to be worth a few hundred million at some point.

+ It has 3-4 billion ton potential based on its 3DIP, which is massive compared to most.

+ Economic Sc/Co recovery
3/n

Many smart value investors have recently bought into EC/PXT. FEC rivals their cheapness on its base Colombia business of >40k BOEPD.

+Already hit a discovery & drilling on fairway w/ other’s major discoveries in hottest basin (Guyana) where it has a ~90% interest.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 22
1/n “EUR ING Andrew Carter B.Sc. CEng. MIMMM, MSAIMM SME of Coffey, Tetra Tech noted “Even at moderate recoveries, the HAT deposit has the potential to meet international demand for scandium for the foreseeable future…”
2/n “As scandium is a by-product of a waste stream, recovery is not the fundamental driver, cost is. If it can be demonstrated that scandium can be recovered at an acceptable cost, then scandium has the potential to add significant value to the HAT deposit…”
3/n “A techno-economic evaluation for the production of scandium as a by-product of HAT copper-gold production will be evaluated on conclusion of the test work phase. Carter also noted that… the potential for HAT deposit [is favorable] as it is targeting an 80-90% recovery rate.
Read 5 tweets

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