Transferring frozen Russian reserves would be morally right, strategically wise and politically expedient — particularly with a restive U.S. Congress.

Read our @PostOpinions column with Philip Zelikow and Robert Zoellick #Ukraine️ #Russia

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
There is elegant justice in using Russia's state funds, now lying idle, to counter the cost of Moscow's destruction.
Govts would have plenty of legal justification to move ahead.

Those who hold Russian assets are entitled, under int'l law of state countermeasures for a grave breach of int'l law, to cancel their obligations to Russian state & apply Russian state funds to pay what Russia owes
The mistaken focus on Russian oligarchs’ yachts & other seized assets involves a comparably minor amt of money, not very liquid, and much more complicated legally.
In state action against another state’s property, there are no due process concerns. Russia is not a “person” under the U.S. Constitution, and property being taken is not “private.”

There is no sovereign immunity issue, b/ this is state-on-state; there are no private litigants
Some financial types will wring their hands about harming the U.S. dollar. This is an important issue. That is why it is so important for the G-7 to move in concert, including with euros and yen.
European leaders have stepped up. The @JoeBiden administration has not yet followed suit. It should use Russia’s frozen funds and its diplomatic leverage now, while it can decide the outcome of the war.
The time has arrived for @POTUS to tell his advisers what FDR would have told them: This is the right thing to do. Find a way.

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More from @LHSummers

Mar 17
I am not surprised that the group of big banks deposit in #FirstRepublicBank has done little for confidence. The banks committed for only 120 days whereas government money is in for a year, so there is not obvious economic substance.
There is no transparency on what understanding there are, or are not, with the @USTreasury. And it projects more than a whiff of alarm. Policymakers can do better.
I am also concerned #SVB bonds rallied on the news @ the holding company bankruptcy. If these bonds enjoy-as markets expect-substantial recovery while taxpayer funds are used to support deposits it will be highly problematic for the strong principles @POTUS has rightly laid out.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
There is much fog of war surrounding the #SVB situation. Impossible to assess or prescribe with confidence, based on public information. 1/
I hope and trust that the authorities are on a path to doing what is necessary to restore confidence. Acting decisively and rapidly is both the cheapest for taxpayers and the best for the economy. Failure to act strongly enough would be a Lehman-like error. 2/
It is a clear imperative that all #SVB segregated assets and uninsured deposits be fully backed by Monday morning.

Also imperative that sufficient support be provided to other banks to insure full availability of deposited funds across the banking system. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
New analysis with @asdomash of Phillips curve models first put forward a year ago confirms very substantial grounds for concern that inflation is not yet on a path back to 2 percent
cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
Contrary to what others have claimed, standard models of labor market slack are not overly pessimistic as predictors of inflation, and can readily explain observed ECI wage disinflation in recent months
Many argued that the slowdown in ECI wages to 4.2% last quarter was evidence that disinflation is possible in a very tight labor market. On the contrary, we show that this level of wage inflation is consistent with what a traditional Phillips curve model predicts.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
I told @FareedZakaria @CNN: This has evolved towards a war of attrition. That is going to make what happens to the Russian economy, and even more importantly what happens to the Ukrainian economy, central to how this plays out.
Russian economic sanctions haven’t really bitten that hard because less than half the world has been involved as part of the sanctions. A large part of the worlds' GDP --China, India, Turkey-- have not been part of the sanctions.
If you look at Russia's neighbors, their trade with us has ramped up considerably in the last year, which suggests they are serving as a weigh station for goods to get into Russia.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
Friday’s PCE figures, with both core and headline inflation running at 7 percent last month and big upward revisions for the 4th quarter, are very troubling.
They suggest that the @FederalReserve may have made much less progress in containing underlying inflation than has been generally supposed and make a soft landing look less likely.
If the economy keeps growing at recent rates, inflation is unlikely to settle near the 2 percent range, though there may be temporary sharp declines in inflation.

There is no real historical precedent for the idea of a managed disinflation from current levels without recession.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
1/The Fed's been trying to put the brakes on and it doesn't look like the brakes are getting much traction. And when your brakes don't get much traction, two things happen. You can be moving too fast, that's the inflation pressure.

via @YouTube
2/And you can be setting yourself up for some kind of collision or a crash down the road.

And both of those things, I think, are real risks in this environment.
3/We clearly have an economy where demand is super strong. The highest ratio of vacancies to unemployment we've ever seen. Retail sales on fire. The economy creating jobs faster right now than population growth by a factor of five in the latest month.
Read 4 tweets

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