We spoke with S. Naren, CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC.

25 takeaways.

(Don't miss points 13-18)

1. At 17k, valns more reasonable

2. Macro funds too short on everything

3. Tactically a good rally possible

4. Dont think we will see big returns from here though

1/8

#StockMarket
5. Banks much more reasonably valued, but are well owned

6. Autos are attractive, implied assumptions are reasonable

7. Telecom ARPUs can grow over 2-3 years

8. I.T. svcs can see a re-rating over a longer term

9. Pharma has done badly,scope for returns over medium term

2/8
10. Will be interested if we get new age stocks very cheap in IPOs

11. PSU banks have corrected in last 3 mths, maybe there is scope for near term rallies

12. For banks to perform consistently, should not have 'credit events', that is the challenge for PSBs

#StockMarket

3/8
13. Between 2008-2021 we had printing presses running non-stop in US & Europe

14. You have to take a call whether printing presses will re-open in US & Europe

15. If money printing does not resume, cannot look at valns of last 10 years as a reference point

#StockMarket

4/8
16. When I tell investors, that 15% is not a given anymore, people think I'am a bear

17. I'am not a bear, but a believer in moderate equity returns, since we don't have money printing in US & Europe. If Fed restarts QE, I will change my view

#StockMarket #Nifty

5/8
18. Without QE, we will be in a moderate/low return world, not a high return world

19. Multi-asset is the way to go in terms of allocation

20. 'Value' has done very well, thinking about 'growth' now in terms of coming back into favor

#StockMarket #Nifty

6/8
21. Pvt equity & VCs have realised that they can't IPO new-age cos at absurb valuations

22. Many of the new age cos have already made corp governance mistakes

23. New age companies have a lot to learn from older listed companies

#StockMarket #Nifty

7/8
24. Anything which the govt does to help the rural sector/bottom rung of economic strata, will be viewed very positively by markets

25. This year (2023) is a year to invest to reap returns in 2025 & 2026.

#StockMarket #Nifty

8/8 *End*

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More from @_prashantnair

Mar 3
Comments from Rajiv Jain, founder of GQG which has put in > Rs.15k cr into Adani cos yesterday.

Source - Australian Financial Review

On Hindenburg - “They have their view & we have our view, & we happen to disagree, but that’s what makes a market"

1/6

#stocks
On Adani assets -

“fantastic,” “irreplaceable”

“About 25% of India’s air traffic passes through their airports & 25-40% of India’s cargo volume goes through their ports. The biggest competitors are actually the Indian govt, not the fastest running horse in the race.”

2/6
On Adani Green -

“Adani Green Energy is by far the fastest & largest pvt sector, green energy co in India. They’re rolling out almost 3 GW annually. So, so I think some of their assets are fantastic. Countries like India need to make the energy transition"

#stocks

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
Today's headline is, Bank of Japan.

Bigger question - Is Japan (finally) exiting deflation ?

10 points.

1. Japan has been in a DEFLATIONARY phase for 25 years.

2. Companies refrained from passing through costs to consumers even when input prices rose. Instead, they cut wages.
3. As a result, Japanese companies saw 7–8% avg annual earnings growth. In the same period though, Japan's economy trend growth fell from 4% in 1990 to 0.2% or so now

4. So Japanese corporate earnings growth outpaced GDP growth quite handsomely
5. BUT this corporate behavior created DEFLATION

6. To explain - households have not envisaged income growth because wages have not risen & personal consumption/economy thus moved towards a contractionary zone
Read 7 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
I spoke with the Fertiliser Secy, GoI today.

Very important (and interesting) takeaways.

10 points.

1. Nano urea is part of supply chain now

2. Will make 17 crore bottles of Nano Urea next year. This would be equal to 75 lakh metric tons of urea

1/4 @fertmin_india #stocks
3. KEY - One bag of Uurea would translate into 100 bottles of Nano Urea. One bottle of Nano Urea is as effective as one bag of Urea. So efficiency bgoes up 100X

4. Scientists estimate that 2/3rd of all urea consumption can be replaced by nano urea

@fertmin_india #stocks

2/4
5. 350 lakh metric tons of urea consumed a yr, 200 lakh metric tons can be replaced by Nano Urea

6. Will not have to pay subsidy on 200 lakh metric tons of Urea

7. Nano DAP has also been developed by IFFCO & Coromandel, close to being approved

@fertmin_india #stocks

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 5, 2022
Gas Pipeline Connecting Russia to Germany Shut !

Quick 10 point explainer.

1. Gazprom announced on Friday evening an indefinite shutdown of Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. This seems to be in response to G7 decision to impose a price cap on Russian oil.

#Europe #stocks
2. Gazprom cited an oil leak during maintenance ops & said the pipeline would not restart until repairs were implemented

3. This issue was dismissed by Siemens Energy: “As a turbine manufacturer, we can affirm that such a finding is not a reason to stop ops”

#Europe #stocks
4. Moscow justified previous supply cuts by the absence of a turbine sent to Canada for repair & which could not be returned to it because of Western sanctions.

5. Germany, where the turbine is located today, assures it is Moscow that is blocking its return.

#Europe #stocks
Read 6 tweets
Jul 1, 2022
We spoke with Viktor Shvets, MD, Macquarie Group.

Strong & clear views.

Link - tinyurl.com/3dzbvrws

Here are the TOP 20 takeaways.

1. Markets are skirting a recession & not yet pricing in a full blown global recession

(1/9)
2. Need substantially worse numbers for a full-blown recession

3. Central Banks will start changing their tightening policies by end of 2022

4. You will find communication from CBs will start changing at the end of this year & into 23

(2/9)
5. Sometime in 2023, probably by the middle of the yr or later, Central banks will again cut rates, & we will swing back from QT to QE once again

6. Towards the end of 2023 & in 2024, in my view, all the compression of fiscal deficits right now, will reverse itself

(3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Jul 1, 2022
2. Need substantially worse numbers for a full-blown recession

3. Central Banks will start changing their tightening policies by end of 2022

4. You will find communication from CBs will start changing at the end of this year & into 23

(2/9)
5. Sometime in 2023, probably by the middle of the yr or later, Central banks will again cut rates, & we will swing back from QT to QE once again

6. Towards the end of 2023 & in 2024, in my view, all the compression of fiscal deficits right now, will reverse itself

(3/9)
7. What we are seeing is a disruption of the global goods, services, commodity & labor markets. But it is not an embedded inflation

8. My view is that inflation globally will start to come down rapidly in the next 12 months

(4/9)
Read 8 tweets

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