Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ I could not agree more with Michael @michael_wasiura on that subject (& on other situations by the way) as it just drove me nuts for months... here excellent paper :
Undersupplied #Ukraine prepares #SpringOffensive with limited western arms newsweek.com/undersupplied-…

2/ so this morning i have posted this (see link below)
& have received numerous questions from friends, but i can't answer all (first of because i'm no psychic & also because there are too many variables now)
But i just wanted to let people know that this

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1638876363808468992

3/ famous counter attack #SpringOffensive could appear (maybe not in some areas) as an "anti climax" situation, for months, and then things can suddenly change. we don't know, just don't expect sudden actions like in a Hollywood movie.
i mean even D day was followed by terrible

4/ battles.
we could witness also (if Ukrainians don't have enough materials to overcome all the RU defensive lines, to something like we have witnessed last September on Kherson Oblast.
so it could be weeks of apparent "slow moves" but with amazing rate of destruction... and

5/ then in an area we do not expect ( i mean we kind of know what are the possible scenarii...), suddenly a real breakthrough somewhere..
so my "hunch" about this & because of several other solid indications (like real raise of ammo delivery rate etc) is that the Spring offensive

6/ might reach really a "peak" in July.
and by then i think we'll really have a clear picture of what remains of Ru potential and if they are still able to keep some grounds in Ukraine or if they are simply 100% punished and forced to really withdraw from major locations.