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Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 9 min read
1. Otto Wels 23/3/1933

1933 ended German democracy. Our choice: let (1) "Live with SARS" policy remove democracy; or (2) "Live without SARS" through international cooperation, restoring a liberal IS.

Wels, SPD chairman 1919-1939, succeeded Friedrich Ebert (🙋‍♂️@FESonline alumnus)
@FESonline 2. "How can SARS end democracy?"

Welcome to reality. This is no game. As @RealCheckMarker says, life expectancy is lagged. Policy will change thanks to our work, but IF it doesn't, LE will fall below 65 years. Read AIDS history/medicine, a close analogue.
@FESonline @RealCheckMarker 3. If the data is correct: How did SA life expectancy fall 4 yrs in two yrs, and faster than at the height of the AIDS epidemic? Only 1995-2012 levels were lower.

Feel free to share your knowledge, everyone. It's no spectator sport, and twitter's purpose.
@FESonline @RealCheckMarker 4. I share this graph to help westerners imagine how fast their children's life expectancy will drop in "Living with COVID" world. You can't repeatedly infect them with SARS-CoV and expect long lives.

#LongCovid and HIV share chronic systemic immune activation, i.e. lymphopenia.
@FESonline @RealCheckMarker Good article, thanks @pauladepoju.

Links: ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-e…
merckmanuals.com/professional/h…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_…
devex.com/news/over-6-5-…
@FESonline @RealCheckMarker @pauladepoju 5. Good question. Does LE of 65 years mean 'mass death'? I'm no teacher, but quick note so people can read deeper. (1) Period life expectancy is a picture of the population you shoot at one moment in time. (2) Intro and stata code: publichealth.columbia.edu/research/popul…
@FESonline @RealCheckMarker @pauladepoju 6. Here the big question. This thread is from 2020, no replies or active work on solutions since. After the Omicron era 2021-2022 now starts the XBB era, soon to be named Pi era. I'm told it will last from 2023-3.141592, until we end it, just as SARS 2003.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
Outstanding rhetorics. 🔥 IR masterclass. Mentions climate. Misses public health & WHO because --what pandemics--? (Yes, plural because Ebola and SARS)
2. Be precise: two pandemics because we're good on mpox [monkeypox]/smallpox/all poxviruses. The PHEIC is ensured until 2032. (not that anyone worldwide outside twitter would have noticed lmfao)

You see how we would treat SARS if we were serious?

Focus.
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
Remind me in 2025: Strong prediction—expect a 15 yr drop in life expectancy in Germany, from 80 to 65 yrs.

Can take longer to show in the data. Can stop any time if states implement binding international law (IHR 2005). 🤷‍♂️

Yes we've been saying all this for half a year already. Image
Make sure we all talk about the same, so keep reading. SARS is here to stay until we eliminate it.

I recommend aiming for Zero SARS 2030. It will demand high-level attention even if we decide not to eliminate as society unravels under chronic disease and shortened time horizons.
Feel free to make it interactive learning & a teachable moment, everyone. Interesting hypothesis here that it’s impossible for LE to drop by 15 years.

Think like a virus, what would you need?

Don’t take WW2 as example, China’s Great Leap Forward is a better historical example.
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
Every time I try a tweet-break the IPCC releases a thousand-page report OR some person is wrong on the pandemic again. Why care?

As hardcore climate activist I could let us find out the hard way, but I also care. Most regular people would care, if it were well explained to them.
Anyway definitely don't eat these. Pretty sure not overly healthy. And see, face masks a decade before the pandemic!

It is not unthinkable that we may yet overcome current institutional dysfunction.

It is equally absurd for the US, a domestic failure, to hold the world hostage. Image
Just need good people to grow a spine. We'll be waiting.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
If you want to play hard, kein problem, we can play hard.

Two more years of pandemic denial will clarify open questions. I discourage it—effective public health policy can start any day. We know how.

Sustained high-level political attn—resources—good people needed. Your choice. ImageImageImageImage
Why two years?

Expect clearer trends by 2025. If we are unlucky, a close analogue is the onset of AIDS in Southern Africa's pre-ART era. You won't be able to tell for sure in everyday life—such is the nature of high-order nonlinear feedback structures. 😀 Image
This thread to snap back to reality, for anyone who feels like population-wide cognitive dissonance won't work out well, as of course it won't. 加油大家, good luck us,
Read 20 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
1. What to expect if the PHEIC ends in May?

Seriously. In the meantime the funniest pandemic meme: Someone explain like I’m 5 why anyone talks about some market in Wuhan in Dec 2019, when we’ve known for three years the virus had by then been circulating for months already. 😂🤦🏻‍♀️ Image
2. You don’t need to follow @Harvard2H’s views (I think you miss a few key details on SARS-CoV pathogenesis Dan?—not my role to judge) to appreciate his valid wider point: policymakers & anyone obstructing justice will almost certainly be held accountable.
3. Nothing says “incompetent media” like the silence on this (@Harvard2H), the first peer-reviewed paper hypothesizing SARS-CoV-2 origins in serial passage through animal hosts or cell culture. But yes everyone, look at Chinese markets, fun & great food! ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 24
Idiopathic staffing shortages, air accidents, worldwide SARS-associated neurocognitive disorder (SAND). Have fun guys - call us if you want to end this, any time! ImageImageImageImage
Trust your eyes. Arrogant westerners thought they could let a coronavirus rip with or without vaccine, because we would get 'herd immunity'. For influenza they'd be right if eugenic. For SARS this didn't happen, and never will. Society will go down. Unless
We could also stop the collapse of western civilization and learn how to solve real problems like climate any time. Have fun!
Read 5 tweets

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