Rating Research reports can make you rich.
But only if you know how to use them correctly.
@iManasArora uses rating reports to take contra bets with almost 100% accuracy and here's how: 🧵
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
But only if you know how to use them correctly.
@iManasArora uses rating reports to take contra bets with almost 100% accuracy and here's how: 🧵
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Rating Agencies reports to filter stocks:
Most international rating agencies issue a downgrade only after a significant correction in the stock.
Similarly, they come up with an upgrade report after a sharp rise in the stock.
Most international rating agencies issue a downgrade only after a significant correction in the stock.
Similarly, they come up with an upgrade report after a sharp rise in the stock.
But don't take their reports on face value and DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before investing.
Because rating reports are a lagging indicator and price is always a leading indicator.
Because rating reports are a lagging indicator and price is always a leading indicator.
2/ Ultra Bearish articles:
Depressive articles from rating and brokerage houses are used to make retailers sell their stocks.
This gives an opportunity for big players to accumulate them at rock-bottom prices.
Depressive articles from rating and brokerage houses are used to make retailers sell their stocks.
This gives an opportunity for big players to accumulate them at rock-bottom prices.
Example 1: Adani Ports
The best example would be the current year's Adani Fiasco.
When the Adani Ports news came out, after the fall the report came out saying they have downgraded the outlook on Adani Groups to negative from stable. (2nd Feb)
Look what happens after.
The best example would be the current year's Adani Fiasco.
When the Adani Ports news came out, after the fall the report came out saying they have downgraded the outlook on Adani Groups to negative from stable. (2nd Feb)
Look what happens after.
Adani Ports
The stock responds by locking in a 10% upper circuit.
Currently, the stock is up about 55% from when the report came out.
The big players utilized the opportunity to buy the stock at rock bottom and make money in a short while.
The stock responds by locking in a 10% upper circuit.
Currently, the stock is up about 55% from when the report came out.
The big players utilized the opportunity to buy the stock at rock bottom and make money in a short while.
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1631504493543030784?s=20
Example 2: Paytm
Again the sell report came for the stock. It was near the bottom for that year.
Post the report, the stock went up 43%.
The bottom was near.
Again the sell report came for the stock. It was near the bottom for that year.
Post the report, the stock went up 43%.
The bottom was near.
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1504293870045401096?s=20
Example 2 PayTm (Continued)
Here's his tweet of the stock performance post the downgrade.
Here's his tweet of the stock performance post the downgrade.
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1528616859662446592?s=20
Example 3: Russia
When Moody's downgraded Russia's rating to junk.
The currency/ruble appreciated 2x post the downgrade.
So it is becoming obvious the downgrades are usually the bottom of the stock/underlying.
When Moody's downgraded Russia's rating to junk.
The currency/ruble appreciated 2x post the downgrade.
So it is becoming obvious the downgrades are usually the bottom of the stock/underlying.
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1499655000360112129?s=20
Example 4: Tata Motors
S&P downgrades #TATAMOTORS
S&P downgrades #TATAMOTORS
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1246055392699793408?s=20&t=sPNIFbve9lpfs8rVV3uI1Q
Example 5: UBS downgrades #BAJFINANCE
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1275098248932290560?s=20&t=XpTiW-90FbnTHD0EA5EylQ
Example 6: Moody's crack down on 5 Indian PSU's
@iManasArora utilized this opportunity to go long in PNB
@iManasArora utilized this opportunity to go long in PNB
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1336249502966063104?s=20&t=klFpPegLMkSRjCJUr-VU2Q
3/ Ultra Bullish Articles:
@iManasArora shares how ultra-bullish articles from rating/broker houses are used to dump stocks to retailers.
While new traders provide liquidity for big players to offload their stocks.
@iManasArora shares how ultra-bullish articles from rating/broker houses are used to dump stocks to retailers.
While new traders provide liquidity for big players to offload their stocks.
Example 1 - HEG
HEG trapped all retailers when it started making new highs, as they got lured by ultra-bullish reports from the rating agencies.
Tried to buy the stock for quick gains and got dumped.
#HEG
HEG trapped all retailers when it started making new highs, as they got lured by ultra-bullish reports from the rating agencies.
Tried to buy the stock for quick gains and got dumped.
#HEG
Thread on HEG
Read this thread to know in detail about #HEG and why it was scary to buy.
Read this thread to know in detail about #HEG and why it was scary to buy.
https://twitter.com/iManasArora/status/1053244351244103680?s=20&t=klFpPegLMkSRjCJUr-VU2Q
Conditions:
Certain conditions have to be met for these upgrades and downgrades.
The pattern where the move is over has certain conditions which are covered in the next tweet.
Certain conditions have to be met for these upgrades and downgrades.
The pattern where the move is over has certain conditions which are covered in the next tweet.
Taking contra bets is easy if the following conditions are met:
BUY:
1. The stock has already plummeted by 90-100%
2. The rating report then downgrades the stock
3. The stock refuses to go down any further
Buy when all conditions are met.
BUY:
1. The stock has already plummeted by 90-100%
2. The rating report then downgrades the stock
3. The stock refuses to go down any further
Buy when all conditions are met.
SELL:
1. The stock has already had a fabulous run-up (15-20x in a short span)
2. The rating report then gives an ultra-bullish target of 100% up from CMP
3. News-based rally on low volume
Sell when all conditions are met.
1. The stock has already had a fabulous run-up (15-20x in a short span)
2. The rating report then gives an ultra-bullish target of 100% up from CMP
3. News-based rally on low volume
Sell when all conditions are met.
So, next time you see an upgrade/downgrade report from some major rating agency, check whether the conditions mentioned above are met, and learn stage analysis & do your own research before investing.
Don't forget to check out @iManasArora's Extended Moves & Reversal Plays set up and his Twitter timeline, where he shares his tricks that no textbook has covered.
Hope you discovered something new today!
If you liked this thread, here's another one:
Hope you discovered something new today!
If you liked this thread, here's another one:
https://twitter.com/niki_poojary/status/1634411325488259072?s=20
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