Listening again to the recent Full Committee Hearing to Examine the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, I've realized it's more bullish than I thought. Senator Barrasso (00:52:00) asks the DoE what's REALLY causing the delay in their ...
"inter-agency review process", to release the First Draft of their Solicitation for Fuel Acquisition Proposals for the HALEU Availability Program. He is suspicious of anti-nuclear politics at the OMB. But, I think the delay is actually at the NNSA (within the DoE).
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They have been working on this for over a year and the pressure on the DoE to get it released must be getting intense, from both Congress and utilities. The NNSA is not anti-nuclear, but are responsible for security and non-proliferation issues. They also must have agreement ...
from the DoD because they will rely on the commercial sector for HALEU, too (from Centrus and/or GLE, eventually).
So, what IS the problem? It's most likely because GLE's laser technology has always been a security concern and now the DoE must "stand up" a new public/private ...
framework, under which GLE can participate, even though the traditional methods of monitoring compliance at enrichment plants won't work for lasers. But, they can't exclude GLE because they are needed to solve the current supply crisis sooner than Centrus can, as well as to ...
recycle acres of depleted UF6 tanks at Paducah. The Senators and DoE know that both are needed, plus the Urenco expansion too. They have a mandate for more "fulsome domestic supply" and 3 enrichers is much better than 2 (or only 1 for the DoD). Since GLE's lasers are the only ...
part of this new framework that is really new, I'm guessing the delays are to accommodate GLE by designing a new security regime, and the long delay to "Get it exactly right" shows the importance of including GLE. It's very bullish for Silex and Cameco, IMHO.
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Listen to the Constellation CEO include "the need for DoE funding for laser enrichment" in his 3 main points (00:40:00). It also shows that GLE (the only fuel-chain company mentioned specifically, albeit not by name) is really at the center of the delays.
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Barrasso's new bill includes $3.5 Billion of new funding for the DoE to kick-start term contracting for several domestic fuel projects, like the DoE recently did for ConverDyn. This will be a huge increase over the $700M the DoE has now for the fuel supply chain (from IRA).
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This is sure to get a lot of attention considering that the market caps on Silex and Centrus are only about $500M, for each. Urenco and ConverDyn will get some of it, but there's just not that many players.
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A major market catalyst for #uranium will be new conversion plant capacity coming online this year, since it will enable the transition to overfeeding by UF6 enrichment plants, which will create up to 20% higher U308 demand. That's needed just to keep ...
the existing commercial #nuclear fleet running, without continuing to import fuel from Russia.
ConverDyn's restart of the only US conversion plant is delayed to April, but it is secured by a 5-year, sole-source contract from the DoE/NNSA, as part of ...
a new US program to stockpile UF6. But, that's still not enough capacity to replace Rosatom imports. What's needed is for the Westinghouse Springfields conversion plant to also return to service, in the UK. The problem there has been that ...
1) A diagram to illustrate the huge transition occurring in the #uranium industry.
The lemonade business (fuel enrichment) used to be so bad that they were squeezing every lemon extra long and hard (underfeeding) to get every possible drop (of U235)...
2) But now, no one wants to use Russia's juicers (centrifuges) anymore and we don't have enough (SWU/enrichment capacity) in the West. So, to maintain the same production rate of lemonade (LEU), the lemons will be squeezed faster (overfeeding)...
3) But, this requires more lemons (U308) because more juice is left in the lemons (higher tails assays).
Look at how much the switch from underfeeding to overfeeding increases uranium demand while also producing more depleted UF6 feedstock for the Silex/GLE PLEF project ...
#Silex just announced testing is complete and they will ship the First Full-Scale Laser System Module to the US by years end. They are building more of these lasers and Cameco's independent engineering assessment gives it a thumbs up! #uranium $SLX.AX ...
These lasers were custom designed for the frequency and pulse rates required to pop fluorine atoms off of UF6 molecules of the U235 isotope. Process is 2-20X more efficient than gas centrifuges, so it's ideal for harvesting acres of depleted tails at ...
decommissioned enrichment plants that the US needs to recycle. This should motivate more utilities to get on board the GLE/PLEF consortium bandwagon and Cameco's shares will benefit too.
I'm bullish on #uranium for the long-term. But, there is a significant bearish case for the next 2-3 years that needs some attention. It's a bit complex, but here it is. The short version is that the import ban on Russia is not happening. How do I know this? ...
Prior to June, the DoE never spoke publicly about the risk of Russian nuclear fuel imports stopping, even though they supply at least 40% of US commercial EUP needs and this dependency has existed for 30 years. The DoE still claims it's 20%, but it's at least 39% according to ...
Cameco (who won't embarrass their customers), but it's really 50%-60% according to me (who will).
But in June, we learned that the only cargo ships that will transport the radioactive fuel to the US were stopped because new sanctions on Russia are ... fnarena.com/index.php/2022…
Dr. Kathryn Huff (@katyhuff), the DoE's Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy was just added (tentatively) to speak at the @NEI Nuclear Fuel Forum in DC on July 19. Seems like a good venue to make a big announcement on the DoE's new #nuclear fuel ...
plan, which Dr. Huff has been leading for several months now.
I'm flabbergasted that this plan has received so little attention from most #energy analysts and Congress, considering months of hints from the DoE and leaks via Bloomberg about the size ($4.3 Billion) of the plan ...
and the recent failure of a Canadian ship to make a large delivery of nuclear fuel to US utilities, and their critical dependency on Russian imports for at least 40% of enriched nuclear fuel. The plan is at least 3 months late due to multiple delays that are likely to cause ...