Thread by @DawsonSField

So it appears that the Manhattan D.A.s office has indicted Donald Trump.

So what opportunities does this open up?

Why now? And why now is important...

#TrumpIndictment

D.A. Alvin Bragg's office has confirmed the indictment in 2 places. One is attributed to a Spokesperson & the other his office's General Counsel.
Is it odd he hasn't personally confirmed it?
Don't know.
But unless he's planning the biggest April Fools joke of all time, it's real.

According to NYTs the indictments are felony charges for "falsifying business records".
They require the courts to find that the records were falsified to cover up another crime, otherwise this is just a misdemeanor.
NY doesn't have jurisdiction to decide federal election crimes.

This makes it very interesting as it's similar to Gore's defense for illegal Chinese fundraising when he claimed there was "no controlling legal authority" about those election crimes.
Gore argued that judges had not found a case where his specific circumstances violated the law.

This is very critical in establishing "mens rea" the legal state of a guilty mind; knowing what you did violated the law & doing it anyway.

It is very important in a criminal case where you have to prove intent to violate the law.

Anyone think Bragg can prove that Trump knew?

So many Dems think Trump is not very smart, so that opens the door to the argument that he did not know the law.
Removing intent & guilt.
Especially when he can rely upon the claim that his lawyer Michael Cohen told him it was okay to do this...

Trump tweeted his alibi!

It gets even better as both attorneys involved in the agreement, Cohen & Avenatti, were prosecuted & sentenced to prison for various federal crimes.

But that will make it much harder to convince a jury that Cohen is telling the truth about anything.

Cohen plead guilty to crimes with a maximum sentence of 75 years.
Cohen was sentenced to 3 years in the cushiest prison in America but only served 1 because of COVID.

Makes it very easy to argue Cohen plead guilty to the election charge to get a deal.
justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/m…

Fortunately for Trump, that election charge is the essential element of every felony charge. Without that 'crime' the falsifying records charges are just misdemeanors.
But a NY state prosecutor does not have jurisdiction over federal election laws, which make this case very weak.

The Federal Election Commission is the body designated by law to handle violations of federal election laws.
So while Cohen plead guilty to a violation of law that he could have beat at trial.
There was "no controlling legal authority" within FEC case law on the matter.

In order to get the complaint before the FEC, the complainants had to make the false allegation that rent payments from the campaign to Trump Tower were the payments to Stormy Daniels. Fictionally making it a campaign committee involvement.

Why is this important? The only evidence that this was for the purpose of influencing a federal election is Cohen signing a guilty plea, under advice of his attorneys, that he didn't write...
And NY state law has no jurisdiction to decide if a federal election law was broken.

And the FEC failed to find Donald Trump or anyone else had committed this 'election crime'.
Not failed to find proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but failed to find reason to believe that those election crimes occurred.
fec.gov/data/legal/mat…

So it is very unlikely that the D.A.s novel theory will survive court review when he has no legal jurisdiction over the 'crime' he is alleging happened. So the 'false records' can't be a felony under current precedent.

Dems argue that some staff investigators thought there was reason to invetigate. In the unlikely event that Bragg gets a ruling to say that FEC dropping an investigation still means the crime was committed.
That is very bad news for Hillary's campaign...

Why?
Because the DNC & Hillary's campaign has a similar 2-2 dismissal of a campaign violations case.
But it wasn't a $130k payment barely connected to the election.

It was for laundering $83 million through state party offices to the DNC to allow excessive contributions to HFA.

It's also not based on the testimony of a convicted perjuror.
The FEC had the #receipts.
Donors would give to the Hillary Victory Fund. Dollars would be dispersed to 40 states to hide excessive donations. Then immediately back to DNC & HFA.
fec.gov/files/legal/mu…

Why is this important?

In the unlikely event Bragg secures a court ruling that he can prosecute Trump for an uncharged federal campaign funding violation, what happens?

It sets the precedent that state D.A.s in all 40 states including NY can charge DNC, Hillary & her campaign!

It gets worse for Hillary before it gets worse...

What did Cohen bill Trump for?
Legal Services
What did Hillary pay Fusion GPS & Chris Steele for through her lawyer Mark Elias & Perkins Coie?
Legal Services

FEC found probably cause!
DNC & HFA paid fines to resolve the case!

We learned this through Durham's prosecution of Michael Sussmann!

Hillary Clinton's campaign & the Democratic National Committee falsified business records to conceal from the FEC that is was paying Fusion GPS & Steele by calling it legal services.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

Here is the DN & Hillary's campaign confessions that they falsified business records & submitted them to a federal agency to commit an election crime. Claiming that their lawyers said it was okay to do that... storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

FEC 'exonerated' Perkins Coie, Elias, Steele & Fusion GPS & placed all the blame on the DNC & Hillary For America (HFA).

Unsubstantiated reports claim that DOJ is very upset that Bragg brought this week case & that it's dismissal or Trump's acquital will sabotage other cases 'against' Trump.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

The GOP Swamp seems very upset that Bragg is indicting Trump. But this may be more about timing.
This case will almost certainly fall apart before the 2024 election, it will also occur in a court room where evidence not fake news rules.
politico.com/f/?id=00000187…

Which means any Swampy efforts to engineer big news & allegations against Trump during the primary season in early 2024 are going to much more difficult.

It's like how the timing of the 1st Impeachment prevent Hillary's friends from using her dossier against Biden & he won!

If the GOPe & FauxMAGA go after Trump while the base is rallying around him, they will be sabotagins themselves.

Which means no February surprise to get a Swampy candidate to win the GOP nomination.

And if the legal precedents are set, and his does approach a trial.
Trump & DOJ may have to play the Trump Card that might mess up the J6 & Classified documents investigations of the Swamp.

After all, DOJ doesn't want to reveal to the Swamp that Trump is an FBI asset & has been catching everyone.

So maybe they will intervene & file that under seal with Bragg or the court...