Amy Zegart Profile picture
Apr 14 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Been thinking about #Teixeria's fast arrest in the #IntelligenceLeak case and how it showcases the changing nature and rising power of open-source intel. A thread.
10 years ago, open-source investigations into the Boston Marathon bombing were shoddy and scary. The wisdom of the crowd became the danger of the mob. Well-intentioned amateurs on Reddit fingered innocent people. It took more careful work by law enforcement to get the truth.
This week was a different story. As govt investigation gears ground away, the heroes of the hunt were amateur investigators and journalists using unclassified info and clever sleuthing.
@bellingcat investigator @AricToler tracked the migration of classified docs across Discord servers and other Internet platforms and posted his findings online.
@shaneharris at the @washingtonpost got one of the members in Thug Shaker Central to speak on the record. Incredible interview full of information with key details about the alleged leaker.
Toler then teamed up with @nytimes. He used telltale clues from photos of the docs to tighten the dragnet and identify Teixeira as a suspect. The FBI then moved into action, arresting Teixeira at his home. Some takeaways:
1. All open-source investigators are not equal. @bellingcat is exceptional. There's quality control, a willingness to work with responsible partners. Both are key. In the amateur open-source world, errors can be costly but nobody loses a job for making them.
2. Open-source investigators can often move faster than governments precisely b/c they are not operating in a bureaucracy. Umpteen deputy assistant unit managers for x don't have to sign off on every word change. Big advantage.
3. Worth noting that many experts couldn't help! If you have a security clearance, you are not allowed to click on the leaked docs b/c they are officially still classified even tho they are public. DOD sent guidance yesterday reminding personnel about this.
4. For intel agencies, the writing on the wall is clear: open-source intel is enormously powerful and it is here to stay. US spy agencies have to find new ways to harness this info and work with leaders in this space or they will fall behind and leave the US less safe.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Amy Zegart

Amy Zegart Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AmyZegart

Apr 13
Some thoughts on the #leak investigation and what we don't know yet. 1. Has the bleeding stopped? Are there more classified docs floating around the Internet that haven't yet been discovered?
2. How did the leaker access these docs? In the course of his normal duties/access or did he use other measures like social engineering (which is what Snowden did) to gain access he did not ordinarily have?
3. Why did he do it? So far it appears he was driven by ego and a need to impress a handful of gamer friends. Is there more? Were there other members of his Discord server that were actually foreign intelligence officers?
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
Thoughts about the #Chinesespyballoon, intel history, and lessons learned. A thread.
Q1: Why did the US in 1960 (when a U2 was shot down over the USSR) and the Chinese last week say that spy activities were weather missions when everyone quickly knew it wasn't true?
The answer is fig leaves can often be very useful b/c official acknowledgement of truth can escalate a crisis. After the Soviets invaded Af, the US launched a covert op to arm the Mujahideen.The Soviets knew, & we knew that they knew. But both superpowers pretended otherwise.
1 reason was to keep the proxy war from becoming an all-out war between the US and Soviet Union that could have gone nuclear. But in both the U2 and spy balloon incidents, the fig leaf strategy backfired, for 3 reasons.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 8, 2022
1/9 A thread about this story and why the Biden administration's release of low-confidence intel in an effort to coerce/deter/message #China & #Russia is such a bad idea. nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
2/9 Trust in intelligence is essential but fragile. The more the Biden admin releases low-confidence intel, the more likely the intel will be wrong. And the more intel is seen as wrong, the less anyone will believe it even when they should.
3/9 Most people don't parse wording and caveats like "high confidence" vs "moderate confidence" or "we assess." Outside the govt, intel is seen as right or wrong. If intel agencies have to explain "well we were mostly right about that one part," they've lost the argument.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 19, 2022
1/5. The Biden Admin's unfolding #intelligence strategy was front and center in the #Xi-Biden call today. The essence of the strategy, I think, is revealing to coerce. Disclosing secrets may not stop all bad actions, but it can shape adversaries' behavior to our advantage.
2/5 How? By raising costs & decreasing room for adversaries to hide, pretend, maneuver. With the war in Ukraine, exploiting the wedge between Russia and China is critical. Disclosures that back Beijing into a corner publicly help do that. And that's what we're seeing.
3/5 There have been 2 sets of intel disclosures ab China and Ukraine. Disclosure #1: Intel officials say C'se senior leaders knew about Putin's invasion and asked that it be postponed til after the Beijing Olympics. Translation: China is complicit, and everyone knows it now.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8, 2022
The Director of National Intelligence released the annual threat assessment today & intel leaders testified before the House Intel committee. A hot take thread:
1/ The assessment is outdated, literally & figuratively. Doc is dated Feb. 7 with info as of Jan. 2022. It's March 8.
2/ We are seeing massive geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Why is the document not updated to reflect latest or at least more recent thinking? Suggests the annual threat assessment process is still moving at the speed of bureaucracy, not threats.
3/China is still clearly threat #1. Document & testimony made that clear. Russia is the hurricane. China is climate change. It's the long-term strategic threat to US values, US tech and economic leadership, US military power projection in Indo-Pacific and world, and int'l order.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(