In 2018, I visited Bakhmut, bought some soda from this decommissioned German DHL delivery truck re-used as a mobile shop, and got a digital award for staying in “Hotel Bakhmut” in the city center. Now the city does not exist anymore because of the Russian terror.
There was a stadium behind the hotel - I tried to make my jogging exercise there, but it was extremely hot at noon in July, and I gave up after 3 km (instead of planned 10). Neither the hotel nor the stadium exist anymore.
Next day, we went to Mayorske checkpoint about 40 km from Bakhmut - the last Ukraine-controlled position before the Russia-occupied territory. People could cross the contact line there. Of course on the days when the Russians did not shell the checkpoint (they did it regularly).
The way to the checkpoint and back was quite depressing. But it was nothing compared to 2023.
There were signs warning about landlines everywhere. Street signs were pierced by the Russian bullets - as the Russians shot at “Kharkiv” name after they realized they will not get the city. Now there is much more mines and UXOs, and Kharkiv ist still free. #RussiaUkraineWar
On that 3,500-km trip around Ukraine we also visited Mariupol, including the Illicha steel plant (the older one, out of two: Illicha and AzovStal).
I jogged in Mariupol too, up to AzovStal steel plant from my hotel Reikartz (the pic). Neither the plant nor the hotel exist anymore. Where you see “8” at my map, it was the theater which the Russians bombed killing hundreds of civilians #RussiaUkraineWar#RussiaisATerroristState
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THREAD: Ok, let us have a sober look at the U.S. - Ukraine - Russia - EU constellation. First: the U.S. - Ukraine agreement was not necessary for Ukraine. It was not necessary for the U.S. as well. It was necessary only for Trump, therefore he is vulnerable. Let me explain. /1
The "agreement" didn't provide Ukraine with anything. It was aimed on payment for the U.S. from Ukraine (and practically allowed the U.S. to mine Ukrainian resources on Russia-occupied lands). Trump needed it to prove that he is a great dealer. But why did Ukraine need it? /2
The agreement did not foresee any U.S. military support, guarantees, even "commitments". Ukraine paid retrospective for what they have got for free. So for Ukraine, it was a pure cost factor, for Trump - pure profit factor. And he needed it asap. Therefore - he was vulnerable. /3
In four weeks, Feb. 23rd, Germany will have preliminary elections. In this THREAD I will try to explain what it is about, who would probably win, where are bottlenecks, and what it means for the world and for Ukraine. /1 ⬇️
First, we need to understand: German electoral system is designed to dilute votes. No job higher than a city mayor gets elected directly. The reason is the Nazi past: no politician may claim being elected by the PEOPLE. So people vote for parties, and they name politicians. /2⬇️
So people vote for parties, and parties need 50%+1 vote to name a head of a region, or a chancellor. Normally, no party gets over 50%, so a coalition is needed (on a federal level, conservatives from the CDU under Adenauer have got 50,2% in 1957, but still formed a coalition)/3⬇️
Yesterday in Davos, Germany's guru diplomat and Merkel's minion @ischinger made some absolutely crazy statements, effectively urging for occupation of Ukraine by BRICS countries (and promoted his wife's book in the beginning). In this THREAD I explain why this was terrible /1 ⬇️
Let us deconstruct Ischinger step by step. First, he claims Western peace troops in Ukraine must follow a rule "all in - all out". Who told you so? NATO countries supported Ukraine on their own all the time. Had we waited for Hungary and Scholz, 🇺🇦 would never get anything /2 ⬇️
Second. Ischinger claims, European NATO troops may not be sent, because they would automatically and never be able to fight without a presence of the U.S. troops. Hallo, Ischi, ever asked how Ukrainian troops fight quite successfully without the U.S. troops on the ground? /2 ⬇️
A THREAD: Our 2024 #ChristmasDrones campaign is running! Why it is important, and how we at the @EuroResilience deliver donated goods directly to the frontline? Get insight from this THREAD (And a donation link: ) /1paypal.com/donate?campaig…
During our last donation campaign by @EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA and @frontlinekit, we have raised €277,000. For this money, we have produced hundreds of drones, and bought addition equipment for the drones units: off-the-shelf drones, cars, antennas, power stations. /2
@EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA @frontlinekit I personally traveled days through Ukraine, bringing equipment directly to the frontline. When you stay at the units, sleep in their premises, eat with soldiers, and escape Russian drones attacks, this creates bonds. Soldiers tell you what they REALLY need, and trust you. /3
A large number of genuine Ukrainian accounts I follow on different social media (and in many cases I personally know people behind them) are looking positively towards Trump's presidency, and see him as a hope for any true action. This shows how much Biden has pissed off Ukraine.
I stress: I don't say if Trump is good or bad. I say: many Ukrainians who risk their life daily, many at the front, are glad that Biden's team leaves the stage. They are well aware of Trump's ambiguity, and of what he & his team said about 🇺🇦 or Putin. Still they are relieved.
Biden's team went to this catastrophe deliberately and for years. From Ukraine's hero who has provided Ukraine with Javelins - to a pity old delusional man who is afraid of the might of the country he runs.
THREAD The real problem in communication btw Ukraine and its allies is the total lack of a common post-war world vision ➡️ the lack of a common goal. 🇺🇦 goal is to guarantee survival of the 🇺🇦 state AND of 🇺🇦nation, AND to achieve sustainable security for them in the future. 1/8
This goal is impossible to achieve without a full military defeat of Russia, and either significant demilitarization of Russia, or a significant increase of Ukraine’s military capacities, including gigantic long-range strike capacities (cruise missiles and Air Force). 2/8
The Western goal is different. While it’s not aimed against Ukraine per se
and would even welcome Ukraine’s survival, first of all it is aimed at prevention of Russia’s uncontrolled collapse, which associates with global risks (while Ukraine’s defeat is seen as a local risk). 3/8