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India's #electricity grid set several record highs Tuesday - there's a heatwave going on.
Per @GridIndia1's MERIT data (via @CSEP_Org's carbontracker.in):
1) Record demand met: ~216 GW
2) Record #coal generation: over 166 GW
📢 3 issues going forward...(short 🧵)
Per @GridIndia1's MERIT data (via @CSEP_Org's carbontracker.in):
1) Record demand met: ~216 GW
2) Record #coal generation: over 166 GW
📢 3 issues going forward...(short 🧵)
Issues:
1) This isn't over - typical annual peaks are in June(ish).
2) The peak was not AM any more, rather, closer to 3 PM
3) Coal's output has been steady near max, with long durations of highs.
These 3 pts have implications as expanded below.
1) This isn't over - typical annual peaks are in June(ish).
2) The peak was not AM any more, rather, closer to 3 PM
3) Coal's output has been steady near max, with long durations of highs.
These 3 pts have implications as expanded below.
1) It will take planning, luck, AND ₹ (or $ = forex!) to prevent blackouts.
Short-term issue is fuel - gas prices ⬆️ & coal imports also ⬆️. Railways is stretched so coal stockpiles at plants are ⬇️.
@IMDWeather forecasts decent monsoon (96%), but the issue is also the timing.
Short-term issue is fuel - gas prices ⬆️ & coal imports also ⬆️. Railways is stretched so coal stockpiles at plants are ⬇️.
@IMDWeather forecasts decent monsoon (96%), but the issue is also the timing.
2) Till now this year, peak demand was closer to noon, nicely matching solar. 3PM is also daytime, but less so.
BUT, even the evening peak is now ↑ (and likely to rise). Note #RE has limited evening output.
If we measure "net demand" (= demand - variable RE), it peaks evening.
BUT, even the evening peak is now ↑ (and likely to rise). Note #RE has limited evening output.
If we measure "net demand" (= demand - variable RE), it peaks evening.
3) Generation is busbar (net), post auxiliary consumption. Thus, gross coal gen (capacity) was prob. ~180 GW, ominously close to the total installed capacity.
Coal output was ~steady high. This means future RE+storage would need long duration storage (and not a "4-hr battery").
Coal output was ~steady high. This means future RE+storage would need long duration storage (and not a "4-hr battery").
Policy recommendations:
Some are obvious - get more fuel to plants.
Less obvious: a) more demand response & a smarter grid. We need time of day pricing, both wholesale and for retail.
b) Add more RE (saves coal) but esp. wind (helps evenings).
c) Better manage (& grow) hydro.
Some are obvious - get more fuel to plants.
Less obvious: a) more demand response & a smarter grid. We need time of day pricing, both wholesale and for retail.
b) Add more RE (saves coal) but esp. wind (helps evenings).
c) Better manage (& grow) hydro.
Will India face rolling blackouts? Government has been planning, scrambling to find fuel, pushing stockpiles. But will it be enough with 🔥wave?
If more imports are used, how much will that hit prices?
What is being done for more FIRM power at scale? Storage is still expensive.
If more imports are used, how much will that hit prices?
What is being done for more FIRM power at scale? Storage is still expensive.
cc (without any claims made!): @srnarasimhan @sksoonee @CEA_India @bharathjairaj @kiychettira @CERC_India @robbie_andrew @JKempEnergy @JaiAsundi @ashwingambhir @NavrozDubash @Maveryq @ThomasASpencer @bijliabhinav @Nikit_Abhyankar @KaygeeAtWork #RituMathur
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