Daniel Zhao Profile picture
Apr 29 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Very excited to be listening to Odd Lots live at #EconTwitterIRL Image
Like the discussion of competing on science vs execution vs China. US can compete on advanced science but less so on manufacturing at low cost. China executes best where science is mature. Clean tech is an important case where US is still playing catch-up

#EconTwitterIRL
And Dan Wang's impression is that China regards AI similarly to social media where it's a technology to control rather than an opportunity for productivity growth. Evidently Twitter doesn't improve productivity

#EconTwitterIRL
On tit-for-tat industrial policy:
Adam argues that as long as we're competing by getting costs down rather than artificially raising costs, we can still win in the LR.

Dan points out it's hard to out-spend the US
From Heidi Williams: Shortening the timeframe for clinical trials (e.g., testing vaccine for impact on HPV rather than cervical cancer) means you can start capturing the benefits for patients faster.

Parallel to how tech thinks about A/B testing program design.

#EconTwitterIRL
And from Eli Dourado: If we think about science as an industry, it's not unreasonable to see it as dysfunctional in the same way we talk about housing, healthcare, etc. More R&D $ is good & all but just pouring $ in isn't a solution itself to improving processes

#EconTwitterIRL

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More from @DanielBZhao

May 2
Job openings fell to 9,590,000 in March, down from 9,974,000 in Feb and the lowest since Apr 2021.

Falling job openings adds another data point in favor of a cooling job market.

#JOLTS 1/ Image
Job openings fell most sharply in some of the service sectors that have driven much of the recent jobs recovery:

Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -144,000
Professional & business services: -135,000
Retail trade: -84,000
Health care & social assistance: -71,000

#JOLTS 2/ Image
The most concerning figure from the #JOLTS report is the jump in layoffs & discharges, rising to 1,805,000 in March, near the pre-pandemic level after spending much of the last 2 years well below, amidst a historically hot job market.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 6
Last #jobsreport for 2022 out today shows in Dec:
*223,000 jobs added, down modestly from 256,000 in Nov
*Unemp down to 3.5% + LFP up 0.1pp
*Wage growth decelerates to 4.6%

Overall, a nice gift to end 2022 with measured slowing getting us closer to a soft landing.

1/
Payroll growth slowed to 223,000 in December 2022, roughly in line with expectations.

With the exception of July, jobs growth has been steadily and gradually declining through much of 2022.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Across 2022, there were 4.5 million jobs added, the 2nd highest annual level since 1940 after 2021 when 6.7 million jobs were added.

In large part, the job gains in 2021 & 2022 were about recovering from Covid. But we're now exceeding pre-pandemic job levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Oct 7, 2022
The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:

Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug.

#jobsreport 1/
Payroll employment grew by 263,000 in September, tying the slowest rate of growth since April 2021. However, that's still well above pre-pandemic levels when jobs growth was averaging <200,000/month.

#jobsreport 2/
Job gains were a little more mixed by industry this month. Service industries led job gains though some sectors saw job losses. Some notable smaller industries:

Physicians offices: +10.2k
Home health care: +10.6k
Hospitals: +27.5k

Truck transportation: -11.4k

#jobsreport 3/
Read 10 tweets
Oct 4, 2022
Wow, U.S. job openings dropped sharply to 10.1 million in Aug. That's a steep drop from 11.2 million in Jul and the largest one-month drop since the pandemic began.

While the level is still high, that's a more definitive sign of cooling in one of the Fed's watched metrics.

1/ Image
The drop in job openings and jump in unemployment in Aug pushed the ratio of openings to unemployed workers to 1.67, down from 1.97 in Jul.

There are issues w/ this measure, but the Fed refers to it often, so the slowing here is notable.

#JOLTS 2/ Image
The drop in job openings was across the board, hitting most industries.

Note: this table shows that most industries are still seeing higher openings than pre-pandemic, but again, points to the broader economic slowdown making employers reevaluate hiring plans.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 2, 2022
The job market is falling back to trend:
Aug's #JobsReport shows 315,000 job gains, slower & more consistent w/ softer spring gains, moderating after Jul's blockbuster report

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, but on the back of strong labor force gains.
Job gains fell back to trend in August, w/ 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from the spring.

July's blockbuster job gains seem like a positive fluke, though they largely held up to revisions, revised down only 2,000.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Unfortunately, today's revisions pushed July's payroll employment below pre-pandemic levels, but no worries, instead we hit the milestone in August instead. As of August 2022, payroll employment is back to pre-pandemic levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 8, 2022
June's #JobsReport shows the job market holding steady despite recession fears. Job gains slowed modestly to 372,000, beating expectations, and unemployment held flat at 3.6% for the 4th month in a row.

This is still a hot labor market even if the broader economy is cooling.

1/
Job gains cooled only modestly in June, beating expectations. Job gains overall seem to have shifted into a lower gear in the last few months, but recall that in 2019's hot job market, monthly job gains averaged 164k. This is still a healthy clip.

#jobsreport 2/
Most industries added jobs in June in broad-based gains across the board. A few industry stories:
1. Despite concerns about rotation from goods to services, job gains returned in #retail (+15.4k) and held strong in leisure & hospitality (+67k)

#jobsreport 3/
Read 12 tweets

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