Thread by @natachakennedy

The UK is fast approaching a demographic tipping-point. You very rarely get tipping-points in demographics because, outside of wars and pandemics, births and deaths are relatively stable. However IMO we are approaching one which will have profound effects on UK politics.

1…

The effect of this demographic tipping-point will be exaggerated by the fact that many people who used to switch from supporting left-of-centre parties around the age of 40, are now not doing so. Indeed the age at which Tory voters start to outnumber Labour ones is…

2…

Probably closer to 50 than 40 now, and it is unlikely to stop there. Home ownership is one of the main drivers of this. However the number of voters over 50 is going to decline quickly over the next few years as the first post-war baby boom starts to die of old age.

3…

The most recent figures show average life expectancy in the UK to be 83 however this is probably out-of-date because of Covid. I would expect it to come down to 82 soon.

4…

The first baby boomers (the spike in births 1945-1950) will hit 82 in 2026 and the end of that boom will be 82 in 2031. So the size of the first baby boom generation will probably be halved by around 2028.

This is a huge reduction in the number of Tory/#Brexit voters…

5…

The 1945-50 baby boom is however not homogeneous. Working-class people tend to die younger than middle-class people & men younger than women. So the postwar baby-boom will see working-class men die first and middle-class women die last. This will mean a big change in…

6…

…”Red-Wall” seats, with the group most likely to be socially conservative declining in numbers earliest. This will result in a shift to the left/#Rejoin in these constituencies while the Tory “Blue-Wall” seats change at a slower rate.

7…

However this is not the whole story. The 2008 mini baby-boom will become eligible to vote in 2026, which means a significant rise in the number of 18-24 year-olds prior to the 2028/29 election.

Obviously the geographical distribution of members of these two baby-booms…

8…

…will be of significance. But it appears, to an extent, that many 2008-boomer may remain in Red-Wall seats either to work or commute to university, because the cost of moving south/to big cities is too high. So it it the Red-Wall seats that will be affected first…

9…

It must also be remembered that these demographic processes have been going for years at steady rates & it has been estimated that the net increase in numbers of Remain/Rejoin voters relative to Leavers is approximately 40,000/month since 2016 on demographic factors alone.

10…

Since younger voters are more likely to be socially liberal &!older ones socially conservative, this explains the big push by the far-right, through mainstream media and the Tory party, for right wing policies like Brexit, transphobia, renting, ending abortion, promoting…

11…

…climate change and theft of national assets by the very rich.

However it means that these fascistic culture wars politics will likely run out of steam towards the end of this decade, with the Tory Party spending an extended period out of government because…

12…

…of their record on these issues on everything from #Brexit to transphobia and the racism of the Windrush scandal.

The effect on Labour could be considerable however. Embracing such policies in opposition will go against it and it will need to alter…

13…

…its political trajectory significantly if it is not to suffer from voter apathy & alienation. Changing course on #Brexit will be the most important of these but embracing socially liberal policies in tune with an electorate likely to be significantly more left-wing…

14…

…by the end of the decade will also be important, as will reform of home ownership and building more affordable housing.

Parties that implement extreme right-wing policies will pay the price, as the Tories did in the first decade of this century.

15….

…Labour will need to shift dramatically to the left/social liberalism before the 2028/9 election. It will need to deliver on home ownership and the economy, something that will be impossible outside the Single Market, as a bare minimum.

16.