Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Apr 30 10 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
@JakeSullivan46 is a very thoughtful leader and it's probably the most carefully intellectually developed exposition of the administration's philosophy that we have had to date.

Biden Administration's Industrial Policy
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Certainly, he's right that the world has changed. He's right that China represents a new kind of challenge. He's right to emphasize after what we've seen in Europe with oil, other things, the importance of resilience.
But I was disappointed that the speech did not emphasize the central importance of importing low-priced goods. That is a substantial part of what determines the living standards of Americans.
That is a substantial part of what determines the competitiveness of American producers.

For example, we have 60,000 people working in the steel industry and 6 million people working in industries that use steel. When we raise the price of steel, we are hurting people.
I think that the administration is much too quick to move to industrial policy strategies on grounds of resilience.

Let me give you two examples.
The Jones Act was the resilience policy of 1920s. It says: Let's have all our shipping be on U.S carriers. That's made the price of heating oil considerably higher in New England all year. It screwed up our help to Puerto Rico after hurricane b/ we didn't have adequate capacity.
We had a major infant formula problem in this country that was related to “buy American” policies. That meant we couldn't turn quickly to European supply chains.
Of course, we're all for resilience. We're all for strong US producers and strong U.S. businesses.
But what I find missing in the approach is helping consumers, which after all is the middle class and is central to how people feel they're doing.
Also missing is recognizing the importance of cooperation in producing a more prosperous global economy that works to our benefit and the United States maintaining its commitment to other countries, which we have not done in the trade area for quite some time.
I think in their extreme preoccupation w/ manufacturing, their failure to consider consumers and reluctance to embrace cooperation in favor of more aggressive economic nationalism. I don't think they're quite in the place that will ultimately serve the long run interests of USA.

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More from @LHSummers

Apr 4
Today marks the 75th Anniversary of President Truman’s signing of the Marshall Plan into law. It might well be the greatest act of American foreign policy since World War II. Interesting to reflect on it today.
Could Congress imaginably today commit 2 percent of GDP, or about $500 billion, to a 4-year foreign assistance venture? Would the Marshall Plan have passed in 1948 if it had been focus grouped?
Relative to the total scale of the countries being assisted, it represented only about .5 percent of GDP per year. Why was it so successful compared to modern reconstruction and aid efforts that are often 10 to 100 times as large relative to recipient economies?
Read 4 tweets
Mar 20
Transferring frozen Russian reserves would be morally right, strategically wise and politically expedient — particularly with a restive U.S. Congress.

Read our @PostOpinions column with Philip Zelikow and Robert Zoellick #Ukraine️ #Russia

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
There is elegant justice in using Russia's state funds, now lying idle, to counter the cost of Moscow's destruction.
Govts would have plenty of legal justification to move ahead.

Those who hold Russian assets are entitled, under int'l law of state countermeasures for a grave breach of int'l law, to cancel their obligations to Russian state & apply Russian state funds to pay what Russia owes
Read 8 tweets
Mar 17
I am not surprised that the group of big banks deposit in #FirstRepublicBank has done little for confidence. The banks committed for only 120 days whereas government money is in for a year, so there is not obvious economic substance.
There is no transparency on what understanding there are, or are not, with the @USTreasury. And it projects more than a whiff of alarm. Policymakers can do better.
I am also concerned #SVB bonds rallied on the news @ the holding company bankruptcy. If these bonds enjoy-as markets expect-substantial recovery while taxpayer funds are used to support deposits it will be highly problematic for the strong principles @POTUS has rightly laid out.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
There is much fog of war surrounding the #SVB situation. Impossible to assess or prescribe with confidence, based on public information. 1/
I hope and trust that the authorities are on a path to doing what is necessary to restore confidence. Acting decisively and rapidly is both the cheapest for taxpayers and the best for the economy. Failure to act strongly enough would be a Lehman-like error. 2/
It is a clear imperative that all #SVB segregated assets and uninsured deposits be fully backed by Monday morning.

Also imperative that sufficient support be provided to other banks to insure full availability of deposited funds across the banking system. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
New analysis with @asdomash of Phillips curve models first put forward a year ago confirms very substantial grounds for concern that inflation is not yet on a path back to 2 percent
cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
Contrary to what others have claimed, standard models of labor market slack are not overly pessimistic as predictors of inflation, and can readily explain observed ECI wage disinflation in recent months
Many argued that the slowdown in ECI wages to 4.2% last quarter was evidence that disinflation is possible in a very tight labor market. On the contrary, we show that this level of wage inflation is consistent with what a traditional Phillips curve model predicts.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
I told @FareedZakaria @CNN: This has evolved towards a war of attrition. That is going to make what happens to the Russian economy, and even more importantly what happens to the Ukrainian economy, central to how this plays out.
Russian economic sanctions haven’t really bitten that hard because less than half the world has been involved as part of the sanctions. A large part of the worlds' GDP --China, India, Turkey-- have not been part of the sanctions.
If you look at Russia's neighbors, their trade with us has ramped up considerably in the last year, which suggests they are serving as a weigh station for goods to get into Russia.
Read 5 tweets

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