Thread by @BalticDefRadar

#Ukraine: the window of opportunity for the #counteroffensive has opened. Only the Ukrainian General Staff knows when and where it will take place, but it is imminent.

Some notes and points to watch:

- It will be a tough fight against the entrenched RU forces ..

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.. and #Ukraine will not avoid attrition, but UKR has the necessary capability and a very realistic chance of success.

- The stakes of the upcoming operation are very high. If UKR will fail to achieve the strategic breakthrough, then the war might head into a stalemate.

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- If UKR forces will reach the shore in the south, then it will not only break the RU land bridge to Crimea, severely disrupting RU logistics, but will also reopen the access to the Sea of Azov. It would open a new avenue for operations in the sea and many problems for RU.

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- There are already several indicators that #Ukraine is making preparatory movements of its forces. We will also see more of the battlefield shaping: sabotage, operations behind the lines, aggressive reconnaissance, PSYOPs and, of course, deep strikes into the rear.

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- The opening attacks may be on more than one axis. There will be an element of deception but #Ukraine may achieve only a very limited effect of surprise. The ground contact line is ~150km and it's ~100km to reach the coast. The area of strategic value is roughly 200x100km.

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- In the first days, there will be confusion and uncertainty: the fog of war. However, they will be indicative as they will shape the character of the counter-offensive. RU lines of defence can be hard to puncture. Prepare for the long creeping fight, but hope for the rout.

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- The Western countries can still quickly and significantly boost UKR capability by: 1) supplying more artillery shells from their stockpiles 2) providing long-range missiles e.g. ATACMS. #USA should show the leadership and #Europeans will join. There still is some time.

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- Last but not least: it is unlikely that the UKR success would mean the end of the #war. However, the counter-offensive will be very consequential and therefore a successful operation would be a very important milestone towards the victory of #Ukraine.

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For high quality war analysis, we recommend @KofmanMichael and @konrad_muzyka.

We hope @oryxspioenkop and @Rebel44CZ will continue documenting the losses. RU fortifications: @bradyafr.

Also, we continue documenting the military aid for #Ukraine: ukr-mil-aid.org

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We wish the Armed Forces of #Ukraine (ZSU) all the luck and we are confident in their victory.

Meanwhile, there is only one message for russians (in the language they understand): ЗСУ вас отпиздит!

Слава Україні! 🇺🇦

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