Daniel Zhao Profile picture
May 2, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Job openings fell to 9,590,000 in March, down from 9,974,000 in Feb and the lowest since Apr 2021.

Falling job openings adds another data point in favor of a cooling job market.

#JOLTS 1/ Image
Job openings fell most sharply in some of the service sectors that have driven much of the recent jobs recovery:

Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -144,000
Professional & business services: -135,000
Retail trade: -84,000
Health care & social assistance: -71,000

#JOLTS 2/ Image
The most concerning figure from the #JOLTS report is the jump in layoffs & discharges, rising to 1,805,000 in March, near the pre-pandemic level after spending much of the last 2 years well below, amidst a historically hot job market.

3/ Image
Unusually, much of the jump in layoffs was due to construction which has been on a roller coaster in the last few months (in terms of #JOLTS data volatility). Hard to tell how construction will trend from the JOLTS data alone.

4/ Image
Quits fell to 3,851,000 in March, still up ~10% above pre-pandemic levels, but also falling in a sign that workers are growing less confident in their ability to quit & find new jobs amidst a cooling job market.

#JOLTS 5/ Image
Notably, quits in leisure & hospitality and accommodation & food services tanked in March. Quits in accommodation & food services are now below their pre-pandemic peak from 2019.

#JOLTS 6/ ImageImage
The Federal Reserve has often pointed to openings and openings in relations to unemployment as a sign that the labor market is out of balance. While openings cooled in March, they are still elevated compared to historical levels...

#JOLTS 7/ ImageImage
Quits point to a labor market that is hot but less "out of balance", elevated but more consistent with historically low unemployment. That points to a labor market that is hot but maybe not still overheating.

#JOLTS 8/ Image

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More from @DanielBZhao

Mar 4
Another drop for the @Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index in Feb, falling to 45.1%, down from 45.7% last month & 50.7% in Feb 2023, as recent layoffs in the headlines continue to drive anxiety among employees.

1/ Image
Discussions of layoffs in @Glassdoor reviews have skyrocketed over the last 2 yrs in tech & media. In tech, they're actually higher than even the worst of Covid.

Despite measured layoffs remaining low by historical standards, anxiety about layoffs remains high.

2/ Image
One partial explanation is that sentiment from current employees who mention layoffs in reviews (likely employees who survived a layoff) has seen a sharper drop than other groups as burnout & morale appear to be worsening.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
First #jobsreport of 2024! Wow, some surprisingly hot figures on the headline:
-Payroll growth beats at 353k
-Unemp at 3.7%
-Avg hourly earnings up to 4.5%

Lots of details to look at below the headlines

1/
(Sorry for delay, took some time to digest data)

Payrolls grew 353,000 in Jan, well past expectations. Dec & Jan both were much stronger than originally reported, though new seasonal trends around turn of year means the true underlying growth rate is probably a touch lower.

2/ Image
Payroll growth over 2023 came in at 3.1 million jobs added, lower than the recent Covid recovery years but faster than the pre-Covid years & comparable to 2014–2015.

The annual revisions reaffirm the strength of the job market in 2023

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 5
Last #jobsreport of 2023 is solid though a mixed bag under the hood:
-Payrolls beat with 216,000 jobs added
-Unemployment flat at 3.7%, though with a tick down in LFP
-Avg hourly earnings ticks up to 4.1%

Charts to follow 1/
216,000 jobs added to payrolls in December is a solid number, right about average for 2023.

Over 2023, there were 2.7 million jobs added to payrolls, down from 2021–2 when there were more "reopening jobs" coming back but still the highest pre-pandemic jobs growth since 2015

2/
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Jobs growth in December was driven in large part by private education & health services (+74k) and government (+52k). Health care, education and government together accounted for almost 4 in 5 jobs created in H2 2023, a higher share than in the past few years.

3/
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Read 5 tweets
May 5, 2023
Job market defying gravity in April:

*253,000 jobs added, above expectations though big negative revisions to last 2 months
*Unemp drops to 3.4%. Black unemp at record low 4.7%
*Wage growth jumps to 4.4% YoY

There's still heat in the job market #JobsReport 1/
Employers added 253,000 jobs, a slower pace than much of 2022, but Feb & Mar were downwardly revised by 149,000. Post-revisions, the start of the year was much slower than originally reported, but job gains remain healthy.

#JobsReport 2/ Image
The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%, tying the recovery low. Ties the pre-pandemic low from 2019 and before that, we hadn't seen that low level since 1969.

#JobsReport 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29, 2023
Very excited to be listening to Odd Lots live at #EconTwitterIRL Image
Like the discussion of competing on science vs execution vs China. US can compete on advanced science but less so on manufacturing at low cost. China executes best where science is mature. Clean tech is an important case where US is still playing catch-up

#EconTwitterIRL
And Dan Wang's impression is that China regards AI similarly to social media where it's a technology to control rather than an opportunity for productivity growth. Evidently Twitter doesn't improve productivity

#EconTwitterIRL
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6, 2023
Last #jobsreport for 2022 out today shows in Dec:
*223,000 jobs added, down modestly from 256,000 in Nov
*Unemp down to 3.5% + LFP up 0.1pp
*Wage growth decelerates to 4.6%

Overall, a nice gift to end 2022 with measured slowing getting us closer to a soft landing.

1/
Payroll growth slowed to 223,000 in December 2022, roughly in line with expectations.

With the exception of July, jobs growth has been steadily and gradually declining through much of 2022.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Across 2022, there were 4.5 million jobs added, the 2nd highest annual level since 1940 after 2021 when 6.7 million jobs were added.

In large part, the job gains in 2021 & 2022 were about recovering from Covid. But we're now exceeding pre-pandemic job levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets

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