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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
@BULLReturns
May 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Fresh asymmetric theme incoming no rush to deploy, do the work on survivability and low end valuation entry <0.2x book #regionalbanks
2 on this list will do over 10x returns from their incoming cycle bottoms.
When looking for compelling cycle bottom in #regionalbanks 2009 indicates a peak to bottom of -70%, that would imply <$19 $IAT entry. Image
That's for 2x returns over 5yrs, individual stock selection of -95% and up 10-15x will be available

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More from @BULLReturns

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
May 2
#uranium facts for last week are in ....900klbs traded Image
Utilities joined in but didn't dominate Vs traders #uranium
Another 2-3mlb pounds to be taken out through the end of May if blue skies are to be enjoyed. But to sustain higher levels, Utilities will need to dominate, near term (<24 months) contracting books need to be nearing capacity to result in continued upward momentum. #uranium
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
May 2
For those pre-production #uranium caps (<US$150m size) raising money to take them towards the Final Investment Decision, this should come as no surprise, one should build into their models dilution as follows:
$55 spot = likely 50-65% dilution if capex is funded at this point
1/3
$65 spot = 45-55%

$75 spot = 40-50%

$85 spot = 35-45%

Hence our view that buying < 0.7x peak CF 3-4 years out undiluted = 0.9-1.2x diluted = 4-5x upside.

Those trading at <0.5x = 6-8x upside.

2/3
Funding a project at $85 spot implying > $50lb cash margins for 3-5mlb capacity = operating CF US$150-250m 3-4 yrs out

Buying that cap today at $53 spot

US$100m cap = 4-7x return

US$75m = 5-8x

US$50m = 6-10x

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
May 2
Living a Honda lifestyle on a Bugatti income (including return compounding) provides one multiple options when the shit hits the fan.
Incoming shit hitting the fan:

A) job losses and no savings to pay the mortgage, with 35% drop in the property value to exit it.

B) those high on margin will get called and massively hit, likely account implosion

C) 75% wealth hits for those not understanding incoming risks
Survival action to be taken now:

- Dial back unnecessary expenditure
- Pay off credit card debt
- Build a savings buffer > 9 months of expenditure
- Close out margin positions
- Sell non essential assets to build liquidity for incoming risk (job loss, refinancing risk etc)
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 22
We would love to sit in privately held #coal companies getting 50% plus dividend yields for the next 20-30 years.
$500k investment and $250k dividends annually is a great pension annuity
$SBER < 50c DR entry (March 2022) equated to around a 300% dividend yield through 2026, likely payable for the next 50 years, capital gains >50x.

Mis-priced high dividend assets are great compounders.
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 15
How do avoid being financially stressed? Live within your means, focus on a high savings rate which leads to freedom. Never live paycheck to paycheck with your credit card as a bridge. Build a investment stack of $300k and learn how to compound at 20% plus.
Our cycle bottom approach allows compounding at 20-30%, resulting in the <30yrs retiring at around 50yrs.

Note our 10x10x10=1000x return thesis within 20yrs.
Things you don't need are plentiful until your investment stack has been achieved:
- no $1000 per month car payment, stick with the 15yr old car for another 5 years
- no Starbucks coffee required, make at home and bring with you
- self prepared picnic as opposed to eating out
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 4
Up to 22% outperformance with peers on the day....wrong again, but don't worry someone's defamation lawyer will be in touch.
Context: Alan Davison, hiding behind a mask.
There is Alan the defamer without any substance, jealously is the motive?
Read 4 tweets

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