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Thought of the day: A reminder for our followers, each new asymmetric theme should be restricted to a 5-7% portfolio weighting with around 5 stocks positions to mitigate stock specific risks in each theme. Incoming themes over the next 6 months: #regionalbanks #REITs etc
Rules of engagement for #regionalbanks & #REITs
- we are approaching entry into the eye of the storm, this will likely need to play out 75% prior to serious capital deployment (6 months +).
- shoes to drop include freezing lending markets, deposits moving to higher yields etc
- we are approaching entry into the eye of the storm, this will likely need to play out 75% prior to serious capital deployment (6 months +).
- shoes to drop include freezing lending markets, deposits moving to higher yields etc
Let some bottoming clarity take place...as in the short term, what was strong yesterday, may not be tomorrow, the rate of change can be swift until the environment settles.
We continue to look for amazing survivability entry points, more likely available in the later stages of the storm:
<1x trailing PEs
>75% trailing dividend yields
<0.15x book
Secure sustainable funding arrangements
<1x trailing PEs
>75% trailing dividend yields
<0.15x book
Secure sustainable funding arrangements
Note 2008-2009 destruction -95% and 2010-2017 recovery +10-15x
We expect similar outcomes from cycle bottoms in 2023/24 with recovery through 2027.
We expect similar outcomes from cycle bottoms in 2023/24 with recovery through 2027.
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