Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra Profile picture
May 6 โ€ข 15 tweets โ€ข 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
As @Paytm released its Q4FY23 results yday, I dived into last 8-qtrs of its lending biz ๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก

Hereโ€™s a breakdown of numbers that you wonโ€™t find all in one place anywhere else ๐Ÿ‘‡

Tags: @vijayshekhar | #Paytm Image
Paytm earns 2 things on each loan given.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Commission (C): A %age of the loan amount

๐Ÿ’ฐ Performance bonus (PB): A %age of the EMIs collected, only when the loan is paid back
Some basics about the performance bonus!

๐Ÿ‘‰ In case of defaults, #Fintechs used to compensate the lending partners (LPs- NBFCs & banks) under #FLDG (first loan default guarantee) agreement
๐Ÿ‘‰ However, RBI was unhappy, as it geared LPs to give credit with relaxed norms. Thus, it banned FLDG partnerships!

๐Ÿ‘‰ Now, LPs needed comfort as fintechs mostly brought in 1st-time borrowers w/o a credit history. Without a solution, loans wonโ€™t happen
๐Ÿ‘‰ Thus they brought down the overall commissions paid & introduced a performance bonus (PB) issued when all EMIs have been paid. They like to call it โ€œLoan Collection Feeโ€. This way, banks donโ€™t pay much to fintechs if defaults happen. Itโ€™s FLDG reverse-engineered. Intelligent๐Ÿ˜…
All that said, letโ€™s dive into Paytmโ€™s 3 lending products!

(BRACKETS denote the wtd avg QoQ growth rate for last 8-qtrs.)
BNPL (Postpaid) ๐Ÿ‘‡

No. of users: ~80L
Total lending to date: Rs 25k cr
Q4FY23 disbursals: Rs 6.8k cr (27%)
Avg loan size: Rs 5.9k (13%)
No. of loans: 5.6 cr (12%)

Paytm earns ~2.5% C & ~0.75% PB ๐Ÿ’ฐ
Main takeaway: ~80L users have taken 5.6cr BNPL loans. Means, an avg user has used BNPL for at least 7 months now! ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘
Personal Loans ๐Ÿ‘‡

No. of users: ~6L
Total lending to date: Rs 12k cr
Q4FY23 disbursals: Rs 3.5k cr (33%)
Avg loan size: Rs 1.3L (8%)
No. of loans: 10.4L (24%)

Paytm earns ~3% C & ~1% PB ๐Ÿ’ฐ
Main takeaway: 10.4L loans to ~6L users Means, 40%+ repeat borrowers- Thatโ€™s amazing! As more people complete one loan & come back for another, biz will need lesser marketing ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘
Merchant Loans ๐Ÿ‘‡

Total lending to date: Rs 8k cr
Q4FY23 disbursals: Rs 2.3k cr (38% QoQ)
Avg loan size: Rs 1.7L (7% QoQ)
No. of loans: 5.6L (29% QoQ)

Paytm earns ~3.5% C & ~1.5% PB ๐Ÿ’ฐ
Main takeaway: No. & value of loans growing mush faster than BNPL, and also Personal loans. This is good news, as Paytm earns way more on each Merchant loan disbursed! ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘
Broader takeaways ๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ‘ Growing avg loan size for all 3 show higher usage with time for respective users

๐Ÿ‘ As nos. show, every underlying metric for each of the 3 products is doing damn good

๐Ÿ‘ More importantly, the products on which Paytm earns, are also growing much faster
Given its multiple biz verticals, people donโ€™t know much about Paytmโ€™s superb lending biz. Hope, this helps change that ๐Ÿ™

(Disc: Invested)
Biz News+ WA group:ย bit.ly/3HFCaVT

PS: I post one such deep-dive daily 11am. If interested, doย follow! Note: This is a personal #investmentย thesis & not aย #stockย /ย #stockmarketย rec

Tags: #IndianStocks #Startups #IndianStartups #Paytm #PhonePe

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More from @jshilanjanm

May 8
How can long-term @IndiaMART investors not be delighted with @DineshAgarwal! ๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿ™Œ

The company released its Q4FY23 results some days back. So, I dived in & sliced through its numbers for the last 16 qtrs.

Here is all that I learned ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
In last 4yrs:
๐Ÿ‘ย Revenue/month: Rs 85cr | Up ~90%
๐Ÿ‘ Profit/month: Rs 25cr | Up ~278%
Just look at those numbers!
How did it happen?

Outstanding jump in paying subscribers:
๐Ÿ”† 72% up in the Top-8 cities (~1.1L users)- 20% up in last 1yr alone
๐Ÿ”† 62% up in the cities with >5L people (~53k users)- 25% up in last 1yr alone
Read 13 tweets
May 7
Indiaโ€™s pvt sector is going gangbusters on coal mining, breaking all records โ›๏ธโ›๏ธ

A 5yr old #ModiGovt reform has set Indiaโ€™s captive coal economy on a big growth path.

Hereโ€™s all you should know! ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
Indiaโ€™s coal is primarily produced by 2 sets of entities.

โ›๏ธ PSUs: #CoalIndia & #SCCL

โ›๏ธ Captives: Pvt sector entities or PSUs like #NTPC or #SAIL which mine coal to meet in-house power demand

Here is how their production (million tonnes/MT) has fared over the last 10yrs ๐Ÿ‘‡
Brackets show share of captives in overall production.

(Total | Coal India | SCCL | Captives)

FY14: 566 | 462 | 51 | 53 (9.3%)
FY15: 609 | 494 | 53 | 62 (10.2%)
FY16: 639 | 539 | 60 | 40 (6.2%)
FY17: 658 | 554 | 61 | 42 (6.4%)
FY18: 675 | 567 | 62 | 46 (6.8%)
Read 13 tweets
May 3
An avg #Rapido rider does ~3 trips a day, earning just Rs 200! ๐Ÿ˜ฎ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

Whatโ€™s his persona & motivation? What does @rapidobikeapp earn out of it?

Hereโ€™s all that the companyโ€™s data reveals! A thread ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
This morning, @livemint published a great data-rich story on #Rapido by @sumantbanerji. What did it show? A lot of things. But some key numbers are all that probably matters.
๐Ÿ”† No of riders: 7.5L

๐Ÿ”† Total monthly rides: 3cr

๐Ÿ”† Avg rider's monthly earnings: Rs 6k (Rs 200 daily)

๐Ÿ”† Full time rider's (10-12hrs) monthly earnings: Rs 20k (Rs 666 daily)
Read 15 tweets
May 2
Indian smartphone sales drop to lowest in 4yrs! Thatโ€™s the catchy headline they report ๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜…

The important truth comes out only when one breakdown the numbers ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
Smartphones sold in India (crore).
โ€™19: 15.2
โ€™20: 15.0
โ€™21: 16.1
โ€™22: 14.4

This is what media circulates, calling it stagnancy.

But, a deep dive by segments shows, nothingโ€™s stagnant at all:
<$150 ๐Ÿ“›:
๐Ÿ‘‰ Vol -24% YoY
๐Ÿ‘‰ Mkt share: 46% vs 54% last year

$150-300 ๐Ÿš€:
๐Ÿ‘‰ Vol +15%
๐Ÿ‘‰ Mkt share: 38% vs 36% last year

$300-500 ๐Ÿš€:
๐Ÿ‘‰ Vol +20%
๐Ÿ‘‰ Mkt share: 10% vs 8% last year

> $500 ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€:
๐Ÿ‘‰ Vol +55%
๐Ÿ‘‰ Mkt share: 6% vs 2% last year
Read 14 tweets
May 1
Rs 420cr wrongly charged by @atherenergy & @OlaElectric to scooters owners? ๐Ÿ“›๐Ÿ“›๐Ÿ“›

This wild & unethical play has got the Govt up in arms against them!

Hereโ€™s all you should know ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
As per Govtโ€™s Vahan portal, the number of scooters sold by Ola & Ather to date (as per Vahan) stand at 1.72L & 1.25L.

But Vahan portal doesnโ€™t yet include sales from Telangana & Lakshwadeep. Thus, letโ€™s round up the sales to account for some of that:

๐Ÿ”† Ola: 1.8L
๐Ÿ”† Ather: 1.3L
But, what really drove those big numbers?

๐Ÿ”† Govtโ€™s FAME scheme which has been massively subsidising electric scooters

๐Ÿ”† In layman terms, the scheme says that after subsidy, the ex-showroom of a price of a scooter should be <Rs 1.5L. And this subsidy could go up to Rs 60k!
Read 13 tweets
Apr 30
#GujaratGovtโ€™s directives on dividends & buybacks is a big bad negative for the stateโ€™s 7 PSU stocks! ๐Ÿ“›๐Ÿ“›

Hereโ€™s why I booked profits in 2 of those, with no plans to reinvest ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
Here's how the share prices surged in the last week ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (11%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat Industries Power Company Ltd - India (23%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd (29%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Limited (9%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat Mineral Development Corp (18%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat State Petronet Limited (8%)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Gujarat Gas Limited (3%)
Read 14 tweets

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