#Map#Klishchiivka pushback
First reported somewhat significant πΊπ¦ gain in a couple of months happens at the area where π·πΊ was struggling since capture of Kurdumivka.
The area is estimated from 2 to 8 kmΒ² and makes no difference.
What matters is momentum and positions. 0/X
Bakhmut is more than just a city - it's a lowland area east of the Donbas canal and offense can't stop on any point until canal is reached.
So π·πΊ should hold positions along the canal whatever the cost or start trading South and regroup.
1. πΊπ¦ recaptured area West of the canal - the main π·πΊ bridgehead, it also provides an access to the road, who controls it has a agility advantage over the enemy.
Control of the area cuts of the woods at the North, no more attacks over the canal.
2. Narrow high ground. Not used for the supply but is crucial for the defense of the π·πΊ supply routes through Klishchiivka.
It's important for πΊπ¦ to keep π·πΊ away, not even entering there.
3. Canal gaps near Ozarianivka and Kurdumivka.
In order to move further πΊπ¦ should control those gates.
It could be difficult to maintain a bridge crossing but it's impossible to destroy the natural crossing.
There were recent πΊπ¦ activities near Ozarianivka.
4. T0513 - one of the important Horlivka - Bakhmut connections. With no secured connection over T1302 as well, π·πΊ would be limited in supplies.
In order to reach the road πΊπ¦ should pass the settlements that were heavily damaged in last months, so itβs hard to predict the outcome.
5. With the control of the South claw, Bakhmut can be isolated and bypassed.
The old "plans" gives some understanding what targets can be chased.
Summary.
The change is important but it makes no big difference so far. Only next steps will uncover the further development direction.
At least activity on the flanks can make the city attackers more nervous and force some tough decisions.
P.S. need to clarify "insignificant gain"
For πΊπ¦ it's not that important, but that shuts the door for π·πΊ.
Itβs more π·πΊ lose than πΊπ¦ win.
β’ β’ β’
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#Thoughts
π·πΊ "Lost" fortification section on the Volnovakha front.
There must be at least two lines.
Majority of π·πΊ fortifications are build on the hill behind the water stream and the link between those valleys.
For some reason second line is missing on the Vremiivskiy lendge.
Without control of Vuhledar there was no chance to build anything along Kashlahach river.
The ledge made the area too deep to justify the construction 25km away from the front.
Incomplete uneven fronts complicates and hight expectations postponed the decision, So non were build.
While @Nrg8000 map shows a continuous lines of fortifications. @AndrewPerpetua use dots in the data representation.
Volnovakha is a watershed, all the rivers goes there so its a natural direction for the offense.
Defense is defined by
a1. main fortifications protected by the streams and lowlands
a2. the forest that protects the city from the North.
a3. 20km deep buffer.
In order to break the city πΊπ¦ should prepare the battlefield for it.
Important task is to cut of H20, but T0512 would be out of reach.
City is surrounded by the villages it would be a hard task to get over it.
Pavlivka - Petrivske - Krasna Poliana road is the starting point.
#Map fortifications and roads
Probably under impression after previous πΊπ¦ operations π·πΊ decided to concentrate their efforts on the roads, ignoring underdeveloped direction of Azov Upland.
@Nrg8000 Logic of π·πΊ fortifications is next 1. Protect hubs (crossroads and storages) 2. Protect the elevation (force the enemy to go always uphill) 3. Protect the Black Sea Lowland access (fast track)
The "welcome" eastern section requires too much efforts from the attacking side and will rely on maneuver defense.
The major obstacle is the infrastructure. Supply lines should stretch along the dirt roads and the closes exit in Bilmak is fortified.
Another 20 destroyed artillery units reported.
For some reason no talks about the reported artillery position strikes.
The first such event was reported at Jan 11, the next in Jan 27, next Mar 7, it has never been a consistent event.
Everything has changed in May.
Other distinct categories in the reports are
S-300 - were reported several times
MLRS - there were only 3 cases, all in April
EW - 13 were hit in May 19,20 and reported constantly since April.
EW is a Special equipment category and it has spiked in March.
Artillery is the only combat component where πΊπ¦ has some advantage over π·πΊ.
When π·πΊ has a lot of stuff and can execute firewall strategy, πΊπ¦ can simply outshoot the enemy limiting their capabilities.
In order to overcome that π·πΊ will rely on aviation.