#Map#Klishchiivka pushback
First reported somewhat significant ๐บ๐ฆ gain in a couple of months happens at the area where ๐ท๐บ was struggling since capture of Kurdumivka.
The area is estimated from 2 to 8 kmยฒ and makes no difference.
What matters is momentum and positions. 0/X
Bakhmut is more than just a city - it's a lowland area east of the Donbas canal and offense can't stop on any point until canal is reached.
So ๐ท๐บ should hold positions along the canal whatever the cost or start trading South and regroup.
1. ๐บ๐ฆ recaptured area West of the canal - the main ๐ท๐บ bridgehead, it also provides an access to the road, who controls it has a agility advantage over the enemy.
Control of the area cuts of the woods at the North, no more attacks over the canal.
2. Narrow high ground. Not used for the supply but is crucial for the defense of the ๐ท๐บ supply routes through Klishchiivka.
It's important for ๐บ๐ฆ to keep ๐ท๐บ away, not even entering there.
3. Canal gaps near Ozarianivka and Kurdumivka.
In order to move further ๐บ๐ฆ should control those gates.
It could be difficult to maintain a bridge crossing but it's impossible to destroy the natural crossing.
There were recent ๐บ๐ฆ activities near Ozarianivka.
4. T0513 - one of the important Horlivka - Bakhmut connections. With no secured connection over T1302 as well, ๐ท๐บ would be limited in supplies.
In order to reach the road ๐บ๐ฆ should pass the settlements that were heavily damaged in last months, so itโs hard to predict the outcome.
5. With the control of the South claw, Bakhmut can be isolated and bypassed.
The old "plans" gives some understanding what targets can be chased.
Summary.
The change is important but it makes no big difference so far. Only next steps will uncover the further development direction.
At least activity on the flanks can make the city attackers more nervous and force some tough decisions.
P.S. need to clarify "insignificant gain"
For ๐บ๐ฆ it's not that important, but that shuts the door for ๐ท๐บ.
Itโs more ๐ท๐บ lose than ๐บ๐ฆ win.
โข โข โข
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Shepherds of sponge war
The sponge front makes it tempting to push forward, but drones make any movement excessively dangerous. Still, doing nothing is even worse unless you have proper hideouts. A network of isolated, dispersed hideouts creates a true sponge defense.
1/12
Fortifications alone don't stop anything. Without coverage, drones and bombs suppress observation and make deliberate breaks deadly. The real sponge defense is a network of isolated, dispersed hideouts - hard to target and easy to melt into.
2/12
Speed can decrease drone danger, but speed reduces maneuverability and situational awareness. Fast-moving vehicles are ideal mine targets. Trade-offs matter: survive the drone - but don't run into mines.
3/12
Rashanverse has no time dimension; Frontline isn't an exception, hence all time-based predictions consistently fail. With this and the Russians' recent dynamics in mind, let's explore how the Donbas offensive will evolve.
Beyond dense settlements, terrain remains the main factor. Roads are important but rarely used for assaults. Fortifications may slow down the advance but don't affect the vector of attack.
Grind allows focusing on high ground and using ravines for occasional jumps. Vectors of attack usually follow the watershed, with rare attempts to cross multiple streams in a single operation (hello Dobropillia).
In a modern positional warfare, seizing ground isn't enough - attackers must capture stable positions they can hold. This thread explains why those points turn tactical gains into lasting control - and why taking them often comes at a very high cost.
From the attacker's perspective, a stable position is more than a point on a map - it's a foundation for control. Capture it and you gain decisive lines of movement, observation, and logistics; fail and your gains evaporate.
Stable positions solidify control: they anchor supply routes, protect rear areas, enable forward basing for artillery and drones, and deny the defender easy counterattack corridors. For an occupier, they turn fleeting footholds into lasting presence.
Cheese Defense review
Heavy drone usage has significantly reshaped modern defensive tactics in Ukraine.
For the AFU, adapting means balancing exposure risks with the need for flexibility along one of the world's longest active frontlines.
Instead of rigid continuous lines, the AFU uses "pockets" - fortified strongpoints or "super nodes".
These hubs resist enemy attacks while visible gaps let AFU hold more ground with fewer troops.
Those gaps aren't empty. Theyโre filled with mines, obstacles & kill zones to slow Russian advances.
Drones amplify this: RuAF UAVs search for weak spots, while AFU FPVs & loitering munitions strike intruders.
Russian forces of Army Group East are attempting to secure tactical gains on the front by shifting their focus westward, away from Novopavlivka, in an effort to cross the Vovcha river and establish a foothold.
With Novopavlivka as an obvious answer.
AFU are relying on the high ground west of the river and defensive bubbles centered around major strongholds to contain the offensive. In exchange, Ukrainian defenders appear willing to concede some empty territory, of 13 people per square kilometers.
Russians may be allowed to advance as far as Vyshneve, in the area between the Yanchur and Vovcha rivers, moving along AFU main ditches in a narrow corridor behind the defensive lines.
That will give them up to 300km2 to report but no real benefits to threaten AFU.