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John Reade Profile picture
@JReade_WGC
May 19 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Gold has recovered a litle of thegrounds lost over the past few days and is trading around $1963/oz on Friday just after noon in Europe. Image
The dollar has slipped a little overnight, which has taken the pressure of #gold for the near term. Image
There are more fundamental (or sentimental) reasons why gold has corrected.

There hasn't been a bank failure for a few weeks.

The appearance of progress on the debt ceiling talks in the US.

A slightly more hawkish Fed. Image
The breach of the 50-day moving average (currently around $1987/oz) may have played a role too, as #gold has clearly lost its recent upside momentum. Image
There are lots of potential triggers for short term moves in #gold in coming weaks - both to the upside and the downside - so I expect to see choppy trading ahead.

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More from @JReade_WGC

John Reade Profile picture
May 19
How to interpret this? Think that it's very much a case of perspective.

Yes, the Central Bank of Turkey is selling #gold, which is counter to the theme of unprecedented central bank buying.

But...
Putting this another way, if all the sales from the CBT have been to fulfill demand for gold domestically, then retail investment demand for #gold has exploded in Turkey.

Here is quarterly #gold bar and coin demand from our #GDT data series. Image
Q1-2023 saw strong demand of about 50t...

The implication is that in April alone 80t of #gold was bought in Turkey.

Turkish investors have turned to #gold to protect then from high inflation and the prospect of currency depreciation.
Read 4 tweets
John Reade Profile picture
May 11
We published a new primer on #gold last week at the same time as #golddemandtrends

"Gold Market Size and Structure"

gold.org/goldhub/resear… Image
I'll tweet out some of the highlights from the report for those too lazy to download it.

Above: total stock of #gold above ground is about 209,000t.

Below, the value of this stock. Image
Note that there are substantial quantities of OTC #gold derivative positions that are not included in this total as this information is not readily or reliably available.
Read 7 tweets
John Reade Profile picture
Nov 16, 2022
Another question, this time from people who have followed / traded gold for some years:

"Why isn't gold lower, considering the strength in the dollar and moves in real rates?"
A version of this chart even made it into the FT recently, with the "TIPS implied gold price" from Macquarie.

(Full article here, probably paywalled).

ft.com/content/21d20c…
We've (obviously) noticed the divergence between #gold and the TIPS yield as its been going on for a while.
I beleive that this relationship, which has worked very well since the run-up to the GFC may have fundamentally changed...
Read 4 tweets
John Reade Profile picture
Feb 11, 2022
Spot #gold is trading aroundv$1827/oz with a $0.30/oz bid-ask spread on Friday morning in London.

Although it bounced after stronger US inflation data, it couldn't hold those gains as yields firmed late in the day.

But lets look at a slightly longer term perspective...
Since the start of the year, #gold is essentially flat...
...yet 10-year treasury yields are about 65bp higher (less negative)
Read 12 tweets
John Reade Profile picture
Aug 9, 2021
I've been looking a bit more at the move in #gold in Asia on Monday morning.

Between 23:30 and 23:45 BST 17,538 contracts traded on Comex, low was $1677.90.

Between 23:45 to Midnight a further 7,825 contracts traded and 5,705 in the 15 minutes that followed.
What triggered the initial move lower in #gold?

It's hard to be sure but the dollar did open a little firmer than Friday's close.
Could the sell-off have been a 'fat finger' or something malicious? Either are possible.

But its also possible that #gold slipped lower as the dollar firmed, triggering stop-loss selling, which caused gold to slip lower, triggering more stops until the selling was exhaused.
Read 7 tweets
John Reade Profile picture
Jul 27, 2020
All-time highs for #gold – a thread

Gold hit a new all-time high this morning, posting $1944.71/oz during late Asian trading and is currently near that level.
There has been a LOT of coverage of the all-time-high on social media – who knew there were so many #gold experts?😃😃
It’s great timing as far as we are concerned, as it means that #gold is getting a lot of attention ahead of the launch of our Q2-2020 / H1-2020 #GoldDemandTrends release, which will come out on Thursday.
What can we say about #gold at the moment? Obviously I am not going to front run the release of GDT, but we can repeat themes we’ve been making for some time.
Read 17 tweets

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