Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
May 22 23 tweets 9 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In the past few months, many western nations have stepped up the provision of weapons and munitions to #Ukraine. This will be key to the coming Ukrainian offensives. But #leadership at all levels of the Ukrainian government and military will be even more important. 1/23🧵 Image
2/ There are two aspects of combat power which are vital for Ukraine’s defence. These are the moral and intellectual elements of their nation's fighting power.
3/ The intellectual component provides the knowledge of war, strategy and cognitive capability – the ‘what to think’. The moral component reinforces culture, values and legitimacy, and is a foundation for the will to fight.
4/ The moral and intellectual aspects of combat power are the domain of humans, and in particular, leaders. abc.net.au/news/2023-05-2…
5/ Few need reminding of the role played by President Zelensky in this war. Zelensky has united his people, and led his nation through the calamity of a Russian campaign desired to exterminate his country.
6/ His “I need ammunition, not a ride” moment will be recorded in history alongside the great statements of wartime leaders such as Churchill’s “we shall fight them on the beaches” or Lincoln’s “last full measure of devotion”.
7/ The secret of good #leadership is that it is a shared undertaking. Great leaders listen to their subordinates and then provide them with clear purpose, resources and direction. They then step out of the way, allowing subordinate leaders to get on with the job.
8/ For #Ukraine, another critical leadership function is played by Defence Minister @oleksiireznikov & @CinC_AFU Zaluzhny. Reznikov has shuttled between Kyiv and western capitals gaining masses of military aid for his nation. He is one of the unsung heroes of this war. Image
9/ Zaluzhny has been more internally focused, expanding his military while overseeing the military strategies that have seen Ukraine defend itself and take back territory, while also planning for the offensives to come. Image
10/ Both men operate within what @EliotACohen has described as an ‘unequal dialog’ between the civilian and military leadership. It is a robust, interactive and ongoing dialog about the war, where all have a say but only one - the President - makes the final call.
11/ Zaluzhny commands another layer of leaders, his senior military leadership, which lead the army, navy and air forces, as well as his joint forces command, intelligence, logistics and other functions.
12/These generals are the ones who turn strategic direction into plans, fighting forces, logistic support, air defence, long range strike, intelligence collection and the many other vital military functions that must be synchronized for a nation to win a war.
13/ A final layer of leaders that will be vital for the coming Ukrainian offensives will be tactical leaders.
14/ These are the section, platoon, company, squadron, battalion, regiment, wing and brigade commanders whose entire focus is the rehearsals, preparations and execution of close combat to defeat the Russians. ImageImageImageImage
15/ Executing a myriad of tasks while tired, wet, time-poor and lacking the full picture of the situation before them, the training, educational and development of these leaders is the primary function of good military institutions.
16/ The existential threat of the Russians has seen the Ukrainian armed forces build a new generation of tactical leaders. Many of them - leading from the front - have been killed, wounded and terribly maimed in this war.
17/ At the same time, they have been learning about new ways of war, to exploit drones and digital command networks to better connect reconnaissance forces with artillery while also improving and networking combined arms operations. Image
18/ It is this generation of tactical leaders, who have learned Western approaches to mission command and developed their own Ukrainian Way of War. These leaders provide the purpose, direction and inspiration to their people in circumstances few outsiders understand. Image
19/ They are commanding a Ukrainian army of professional soldiers as well as 100s of thousands who have left their lives as musicians, tradesmen, doctors, dancers & others united by a common love of their country & who have accepted the unlimited liability of military service.
20/ Like no others of their society, tactical leaders are given the profound and terrible responsibility of leading their units in the killing their enemies on the battlefield. It is the purest, and most horrendous, expression of human will. Image
21/ Therefore, as we celebrate the extraordinarily valuable commitments of Western hardware in preparing the Ukrainians for the offensives to come, we should not forget the leaders that turn these mountains of materiel into effective warfighting formations.
22/ As the various phases of the coming Ukrainian offensives are executed, it will be leaders at many levels who will ultimately determine victory or failure. The fate of their nation rests on the quality of their leadership. End abc.net.au/news/2023-05-2…
23/ Thank you to the following whose images and links are used in this thread: @abcnews @cnni @TDF_UA @Liberov @combined2forces @DefenceU @Eyes_On_Ukraine

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More from @WarintheFuture

May 18
Recently, the pending Ukrainian offensives have received a lot of attention. However, we should also understand how these offensives, and those likely to follow in the future, comprise one part of a larger view of victory for #Ukraine. 1/25 Image
2/ Victory is a central concept in our understanding of war.  Sun Tzu, writing in On War, described victory as the main object in war, writing that “a skilled commander seeks victory from the situation, and does not demand it from his subordinates”.
3/ In a May 1940 speech, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill asked “What is our aim? Victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror; victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.”  winstonchurchill.org/resources/spee…
Read 25 tweets
May 15
Over the past few days , there have been a succession of reports about Ukrainian advances around #Bakhmut. Multiple reports indicate that Russian forces have withdrawn to positions further to the north of the city in the vicinity of the Berkhivs'ke Reservoir. 1/25 Image
2/ There has been almost a year of fighting over #Bakhmut. It is a battle over a small city, with minimal strategic value, but which has attained high political value because of several visits by the Ukrainian president, and Russian desires for a symbolic ‘victory’. Image
3/ The Ukrainian assaults, resulting in Ukrainian territory liberated from the Russians, are some of the most significant observed in 2023. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-o…
Read 25 tweets
May 9
In warfare, an important target is often the enemy commander and the headquarters that assists them to plan and execute military operations. A thread on #Gerasimov, failure and the coming Ukrainian offensives. 1/25 🧵 Image
2/ Killing a senior military leader can result in slower planning and decision making. This can lead to a break down in the cohesion of a large military force, allowing friendly forces to attack them or exploit tactical opportunities while they can’t respond effectively.
3/ The Chinese call this Systems Destruction Warfare. It is an extraordinarily effective approach if planned and coordinated well, particularly given the reliance on communications, sensors and AI-based decision support tools by modern militaries.
Read 25 tweets
May 8
This is a very good thread on Russian obstacle zone development in #Ukraine, from @Inkvisiit, for a number of reasons. 1/12
2/ First this is a very extensively fortified region with multiple defensive zones in depth. It is impossible to create such a complex for the entire length of the front line being defended by the Russians.
3/ The assessment therefore is that defensive complexes such as this give us insights into what the Russians view as the key terrain in the coming Ukrainian offensives.
Read 12 tweets
May 6
Over the past week, there has been a lot of attention devoted to the attack on the Kremlin, as well as the Ukrainian preparations for their offensives. Today, I want to explore the Legacy of #Bakhmut. 1/12 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ It is never too soon to learn from war, particularly for those who find themselves in the middle of it. And I think there are some important insights that might be gleaned from #Bakhmut.
3/ There has been debate about whether Ukraine should have stayed or withdrawn. This is an important debate, but there are very few people who have the requisite information to have made this decision.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Undoubtedly, H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives is drawing near. For months, Ukrainian planners and strategic leaders preparing. How might we assess the success of the offensives to come? 1/22 🧵 Image
2/ In my previous post on this topic, I described the rationale for measures of success & failure. I also listed five principles for their development and application. Success in the coming offensives can be measured at different levels and over different timescales.
3/ Progress will be assessed by multitudes of analysts, journalists, politicians and citizens. At the same time, some will quickly jump on short term tactical setbacks instead of waiting a few days to assess the full implications of such incidents.
Read 22 tweets

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