The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
3/ #Russia reprioritized the Battle for #Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line. Wagner began assaults on settlements east and SE of Bakhmut, using Russian-occupied territories as springboards for the attack.
4/ The successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022 that liberated Izyum ended the prospect of a wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east, thus depriving the attacks on Bakhmut of operational significance.
5/ #Wagner mercenaries nevertheless intensified their offensives on #Bakhmut and fully committed to the Battle for Bakhmut in Fall 2022 likely to achieve informational and political rather than operational objectives. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
6/ The Russian MoD began to prepare for its own winter offensive operation in December 2022 and likely began to deprioritize support for #Wagner forces at that time. Wagner’s highly attritional offensives began to show signs of culmination by late December 2022 and in Jan 2023.
7/ The #WagnerGroup began committing its remaining forces to #Bakhmut between February and March to threaten Ukrainian forces into withdrawing from the city so as to avoid having to fight through it.
8/ The Ukrainian military blocked the Russian efforts to envelop or encircle #Bakhmut in March, forcing Wagner forces to fight through the city and suffer significant losses for the next two months.
9/ ISW assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut was a strategically sound decision as Ukrainians would benefit from exhausting Wagner forces if they were able to retain control over the two GLOCs west of Bakhmut. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
10/ #Prigozhin has likely signaled the culmination of #Wagner forces in declaring victory in #Bakhmut on May 20 and announcing Wagner’s withdrawal from the city and plans to reconstitute on May 25, despite subsequent denials.
11/ The #Wagner Group’s announced two-month reconstitution period could have #Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive depending on when and how it begins. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
12/ The Battle of Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. It is also not even clear that the Battle of Bakhmut is yet over. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
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2/ Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced ~4km north of Ocheretyne towards the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka (NW of Avdiivka and Ocheretyne) and that Ukraine does not maintain positions on the NW outskirts of Ocheretyne.
3/ Additional geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces advanced to a windbreak south of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) and northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka). isw.pub/UkrWar050824
2/ The IDF confirmed that it intercepted an “aerial target” approaching Israel from the east after Iranian-backed militias in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting southern Israel.
3/ West Bank: Israeli forces destroyed a new Palestinian fighter group in Qalqilya on May 8.
Southern Lebanon: The IDF struck over 20 Hezbollah targets in Ramiya in southern Lebanon on May 8.
NEW: Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale. 🧵(1/6)
2/ This is the fifth large-scale Russian missile and drone strike targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 22, 2024, as the Russian military has attempted to exploit degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities in spring 2024 to collapse Ukraine's energy grid and constrain Ukraine's defense industrial capacity.
3/ Russian forces will likely continue to conduct mass strikes to cause long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure as degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities persist until the arrival of US-provided air defense missiles and other Western air defense assets at scale.
2/ Russian sources claimed on May 6 and 7 that Russian forces continued to advance northwest of Svatove near Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
3/ Russian forces also cont'd offensive operations NE of Kupyansk near Synkivka; NW of Svatove near Pishchane, Berestove, & Stelmakhivka; NW of Kreminna near Nevske; west of Kreminna near Terny & Yampolivka; & south of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area & Bilohorivka.
2/ Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Chasiv Yar near Bohdanivka; in eastern Chasiv Yar in the Novyi Microraion; east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske; and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
3/ Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Ukrainian forces are rebuilding bridges across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal to reestablish communications routes.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove, near Avdiivka, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. 1/8
2/ Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army in an unspecified time period.
3/ Russian elites and Kremlin officials are reportedly vying for influential positions in the Russian government ahead of the Russian presidential inauguration on May 7 to prematurely secure powerful roles in the event that Putin leaves power around the end of his new term.