The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
3/ #Russia reprioritized the Battle for #Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line. Wagner began assaults on settlements east and SE of Bakhmut, using Russian-occupied territories as springboards for the attack.
4/ The successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022 that liberated Izyum ended the prospect of a wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east, thus depriving the attacks on Bakhmut of operational significance.
5/ #Wagner mercenaries nevertheless intensified their offensives on #Bakhmut and fully committed to the Battle for Bakhmut in Fall 2022 likely to achieve informational and political rather than operational objectives. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
6/ The Russian MoD began to prepare for its own winter offensive operation in December 2022 and likely began to deprioritize support for #Wagner forces at that time. Wagner’s highly attritional offensives began to show signs of culmination by late December 2022 and in Jan 2023.
7/ The #WagnerGroup began committing its remaining forces to #Bakhmut between February and March to threaten Ukrainian forces into withdrawing from the city so as to avoid having to fight through it.
8/ The Ukrainian military blocked the Russian efforts to envelop or encircle #Bakhmut in March, forcing Wagner forces to fight through the city and suffer significant losses for the next two months.
9/ ISW assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut was a strategically sound decision as Ukrainians would benefit from exhausting Wagner forces if they were able to retain control over the two GLOCs west of Bakhmut. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
10/ #Prigozhin has likely signaled the culmination of #Wagner forces in declaring victory in #Bakhmut on May 20 and announcing Wagner’s withdrawal from the city and plans to reconstitute on May 25, despite subsequent denials.
11/ The #Wagner Group’s announced two-month reconstitution period could have #Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive depending on when and how it begins. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
12/ The Battle of Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. It is also not even clear that the Battle of Bakhmut is yet over. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
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NEW: Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia on the night of August 1 to 2. (1/4)
Other Key Takeaways:
Ukraine also conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against Russia's defense industrial base (DIB), drone launch sites, and air defense systems on the night of August 1 to 2.
The Kremlin has yet to employ a coordinated response to US President Donald Trump’s August 1 announcement that he ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov parroted many of the same talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made during a press event on August 1 that blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in negotiations and signaled Russia's unyielding commitment to its longstanding demands.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
2/ Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on August 2 that it conducted a drone strike against the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan City, one of the four largest refineries in Russia.
3/ The USF reported that the drone strike started a large-scale fire at the refinery and caused significant damage to its production facilities. The USF reported that the facility produces about 840,000 tons of TS-1 aviation kerosene per year — about 8.4 percent of Russia's total TS-1 production — and produces up to 17 million tons of oil per year, or 6.1 percent of Russia's total oil refining.
NEW: Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump's new deadline for Russia to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow's interest in continuing the war. (1/4)
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against civilian targets near the frontline and in the Ukrainian rear on July 28 and 29 that resulted in high casualties.
Ukrainian forces appear to be intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian military industrial facilities and transport networks.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
2/ Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account that Trump cannot dictate the timing of peace negotiations and that negotiations will end when Russia has achieved all of its war objectives — likely referring to Russia's original war aims, including regime change in Ukraine, changes to NATO’s open-door policy, and the reduction of Ukraine's military such that it cannot defend itself.
3/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed that Russia will continue its war against Ukraine in order to protect Russia's interests, despite Trump's July 28 announcement of the new 10- or 12-day deadline.
(1/5) Iran may be prioritizing deeper strategic ties with China over its current partnership with Russia, though the extent of China’s willingness to support Iran remains unclear.
2/ Iranian hardline outlet Farhikhtegan reported on July 15 that Iran is frustrated over Russia’s “cautious stance” during the 12-Day War.
Iran is threatening to expand its nuclear program, likely in an attempt to deter snapback sanctions.
3/ US and Israeli airstrikes have likely hindered Iran's ability to carry out these threats to expand its nuclear program, at least in the short term.
NEW: Kremlin officials dismissed US President Donald Trump's demand that Russia agree to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine within 50 days while promoting claims that Russia can withstand economic pressure and remains committed to achieving its war aims. (1/4)
2/ Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine's capitulation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new appointments within the Ukrainian government.
3/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, and Toretsk.
MORE: Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev suggested that Russia will occupy most of Ukraine if the West continues to aid Ukraine.
🧵⬇️(1/6)
1/ Medvedev called for Russian control over a buffer zone encompassing nearly all of Ukraine, apart from a relatively small area of Volyn and Lviv oblasts along Poland’s border, on his English-language social media accounts on May 25 and threatened that Russia will seize virtually all of Ukraine as a buffer zone if the West continues to supply Ukraine with military aid.
Medvedev and other Russian officials have repeatedly called for Russia to establish buffer zones in northern Ukraine, and Medvedev himself previously called for Russia to occupy most of Ukraine as a "buffer zone" in order to place Russian cities out of the range of Ukraine's Western-provided long-range strike systems.
Russian officials routinely issue demands for Ukraine to concede significant swaths of occupied and unoccupied territory to Russia and have used Russia's illegal annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea and the Kremlin-generated concept of "Novorossiya" — an invented region of Ukraine that Kremlin officials have claimed includes all southern and eastern Ukraine — to justify these claims.
Medvedev's statements are part of a long-term Kremlin strategy to use prominent voices in the information space and weaponized versions of history to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory.
2/ The Kremlin is attempting to leverage large strike packages and increasingly aggressive rhetorical efforts to distract from the Russian military's poor performance during this current stage of the war. ⬇️
Putin may assess that significant strikes against Ukrainian cities and aggressive Russian rhetoric against NATO and Eastern European states will draw sufficient attention away from Russia's slow, grinding advances in eastern Ukraine.
Putin likely intends long-range strikes and aggressive rhetoric to generate feelings of hopelessness in Ukraine and the West and dissuade European capitals and the US from further aiding Ukraine by falsely portraying Russian victory as inevitable.
Russian officials are attempting to obfuscate the reality of Russia's compounding economic and materiel constraints, which are increasingly hindering Russia's ability to achieve significant battlefield gains.
3/ Russian forces have eliminated the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk after a four-month-long offensive operation to level the frontline south and southwest of Kostyantynivka in order to set conditions to advance towards the settlement.
Russian forces have eliminated the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk after a four-month-long offensive operation to level the frontline south and southwest of Kostyantynivka in order to set conditions to advance towards the settlement.
Russian forces intensified assaults in this area in early February 2025 and began a concerted effort to eliminate Ukrainian positions in the pocket south of Romanivka in late April 2025.
Russian forces have struggled to advance in this area, however, despite appearing to prioritize this sector of the frontline and reinforcing this area in early 2025.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war. ⬇️(1/3)
Trump stated on March 17 that he plans to speak with Putin on March 18 and "want[s] to see if [he and Putin] can bring the war to an end." Trump added that he and Putin will "be talking about land," "power plants," and "dividing up certain assets."
The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to a 30-day ceasefire proposal that is contingent on Russia's "acceptance and concurrent implementation." The proposal stated that Ukraine and the United States intend to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace — noting the distinction between the temporary ceasefire and future negotiations on a peace settlement.
Putin rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal on March 13 and claimed that the cessation of hostilities "should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes" of the war. Putin thus rejected one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that the temporary ceasefire precedes formal negotiations to end the war.
The US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal noted that the United States and Ukraine discussed the return of prisoners of war (POWs), detained civilians, and forcibly deported Ukrainian children — all of which will require future talks with Russia. The US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal did not mention talks with Russia about Ukrainian territory, energy infrastructure, or assets.
Putin also suggested on March 13 that he may call Trump to discuss "issues" involved in the ceasefire proposal, such as Ukraine's continued ability to mobilize forces and receive military aid from partners and allies — issues notably not included in the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.
2/ Putin is attempting to change the sequence of talks in order to push Trump into making preemptive concessions on issues that are not part of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire but are part of Russia's war aims.
3/ The acceptance of these Russian demands in the context of negotiations for an immediate ceasefire would cede valuable US and Ukrainian leverage during future negotiations to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.