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Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
@fundstrat
May 26 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🚨#fintwit I will be on @CNBCClosingBell today at 3pm ET hosted by the ‘judge’ @ScottWapnerCNBC

- heading into a holiday weekend

Hope y’all can tune in

@fs_insight @CNBC twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/
Doing this remote

See y’all soon Image
3/
Here is a clip in case you missed it
👇
4/
Here is another clip on $NVDA
👇
5/
On regional banks
👇

• • •

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More from @fundstrat

Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
May 28
A 🧵 🪡
1/
On Friday, I was on @CNBCClosingBell and the segment was >20 minute covered some important ground

- it’s Sunday of a long weekend, so I wanted to share some perspectives
2/
Foremost, FANNG up 45% this year because earnings delivery has surprised to the upside

- look at $NVDA and $META others
- future forecast of earnings higher, supporting higher PE and on higher EPS

Our #FSInsight family members know this has been our top sector pick for 2023
3/
There are many who say the stock market is “so expensive” and therefore they are bearish

- ex-FAANG, PE is 15x
- two most expensive sectors
- Staples 20x and Utilies 19x
Read 5 tweets
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
May 17
a 🧵🪡

1/
Update on our upgrade of Regional Banks "tactical buy" which we initiated on 5/7

- rationale on 5/7 was failure of $FRC created "temporary Fed put" for regional banks

- #Fed then paused

$KRE $NYCB $EWBC $WAL $BANC $CNOB
2/
Technical picture for $KRE regional banks has since strengthened sharply

- Regional banks registered "13" buy setup on @DeMarkAnalytics daily and weekly charts

- flagged by @MarkNewtonCMT

- and yesterday, we got the necessary "price flip" higher on $KRE Image
3/
As you can see, the Regional Bank "temporary Fed put" trade is outperforming the broader market

- summary of trade ideas is below Image
Read 5 tweets
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
May 12
A short 🧵🪡
1/
On why this plunge in #FINRA margin debt matters more you one realizes
👇

- margin debt tanked -35% off peak and -$330 billion
- greater than GFC peak to trough
- and 1.59% (% market cap) lowest since dot-com low
2/
2023 equity market has been a game of “inches” but bullish case has gained #anygivensunday

- this week’s soft side inflation readings strengthened case for #Fed pause

- and a “pause” reduces risk of a hard landing

So that’s a good thing

3/
At some point, some “tie breaker” data will emerge:

- either “soft” or “hard” landing

Here is the thing, investor positioning clearly “hard” landing as #FINRA margin shows

- if our base case of “soft” landing plays out
- expect a #stampede into equities

Positioning 🤔
Read 4 tweets
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
Apr 26
A short 🧵🪡
1/7
Equity markets remain on a ‘hair trigger’ and today’s wobble probably due to $FRC and regional bank model concerns

👀 on #Fed FOMC 5/3-5/4

- we still expect a ‘dovish’ +25bp
- regional softness one factor
- other is lots of disinflation in pipeline
2/7
Case-Shiller showed upside surprise on price (MoM) but arguably as important is home prices went to ZERO YoY

- zero price inflation on homes
- @Redfin rent yoy negative
- Yet, #CPI showing 8.6% yoy gains for housing

CPI lagging real-time measures = disinflation in pipeline Image
Link to 3 (broke somehow)
Read 9 tweets
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
Jan 9
🧵

1/
Stocks $SPY off to a strong start so far in 2023, gaining ~2% in first 5 days

- is this important?
- actually, it’s a big deal
2/
 For 2023, pundits all reading off same menu:

- Fed gonna crush every rally until job market cracks + EPS going to fall in ‘23

- consensus thus, stocks fall in first half to 3,000 (S&P 500) and then maybe stocks recover to “flat” by YE
3/
 Several issues with this consensus view:

- stocks rarely “flat” after a year (11% instances) and far more likely to rise >20% (53% of time)

- volatility matters more than EPS = Fed is key

- we see roadmap for volatility to sink sharply in 2023, already happened with bonds
Read 6 tweets
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not the drummer) FSInsight Profile picture
Dec 29, 2022
🧵
1/
After a horrendous year 2022, low expectations for 2023:

- mainly negative “E” from recession/EPS
- plus “tight” Fed

Positive catalysts = 2023 probably far better than “muted” expectations

Read on…
2/
“Mission accomplished” on 2% inflation

- inflation ⬇️ faster than markets expects
- Core PCE (#Fed measure) inflation ann. 2.6% in Nov
- this is 3M annualized, and ex-housing

At this pace, Dec ‘22/Jan ‘23, could show 3M ann. Core PCE ex-housing ~2.0%-ish and overall <3%
3/
Inflation falling faster than expected would also surprise @federalreserve

- at last FOMC mtg,
- #Fed forecast YE2022 (Dec) Core PCE to be 4.8% YoY
- requires Dec MoM to be 0.65%, or 4X pace of Nov

Actual YE PCE inflation tracking to 4.2%, or 60bp less
Read 10 tweets

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