Thread by @WilliamYang120

"The challenge for Washington and #Beijing is to capitalise on this moment to produce an enduring basis for stable relations. The future of global stability and prosperity depends on it." ft.com/content/d8d1df…

"More high-level interactions are coming. Several US cabinet officials are likely to travel to Beijing, probably culminating in a visit by Xi Jinping to San Francisco for the 31st Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit.

All this has created a window of opportunity to put the relationship on a more stable trajectory, or at least one less prone to accident, miscalculation or crisis.

The opening is small and fragile but, done well, it could produce a relationship that is more predictable, resilient and productive."

"Both sides are signalling they want more stability — or at least less volatility and friction. But each wants this for different reasons, and it remains uncertain whether these views can be reconciled."

"The next few months will be a process of finding — or not finding — a new normal, a strategic equilibrium of sorts."

"First, US leaders and their counterparts in Europe and Asia need to proceed with a clear understanding of the moment. Xi’s China is capable, ambitious and confident but also frustrated and insecure.

Xi now believes China is locked in a long-term geopolitical and ideological competition with the “global west”, which he sees as a prime threat to domestic and external security. His views are hardening."

"This new phase is not detente, far from it. Rather, it is reconnection. Both sides need to rebuild basic channels of communication. Washington and its partners need to work out how to talk to Xi’s new cohort of technocrats, securocrats and ideologues."

"This is fraught with risks. As dialogue resumes, a focus on improving the relationship could become an end in itself — as opposed to the means to advance US interests. This is a dynamic Beijing skilfully uses to play for time and advantage.

Second, Washington needs to have a game plan for the entire set of interactions, culminating in Xi’s possible visit.

Washington and Beijing should try to agree on an infrastructure for sustained dialogue, set a modest agenda focused on the most consequential issues, and attempt to solve some small problems."

"Third, Washington needs to proceed with clear objectives. These should include reducing Chinese misperception of US intentions, clarifying US policy (especially about Taiwan), stabilising the most volatile types of competition and eliciting co-operation on common problems."

"But even the cold war had its phases and moments of change, notably the Cuban missile crisis. For US-China relations, just such a moment may be at hand. It would be a tragedy to squander it, lest we repeat such a dangerous past."