Thread by @seb6philippe

🚨☢️Our new @SGSJournal article provides the first assessment of the scale of civilian death that may result from US counterforce strikes on China's new nuclear missile silos. – The findings are staggering doi.org/10.1080/089298… @PrincetonSPIA @ivnstepanov #NuclearRisks #China

As reported by @WilliamJBroad and @SangerNYT, China is building hundreds of new nuclear missile silos. Once operational, these silos are likely to be included as targets in existing US nuclear war plans. nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/…

We use publicly available information on US nuclear war planning, the locations of the new Chinese missile silos (thanks to @FAScientists !) combined with detailed meteorological data and population distribution to study the consequences of a US counterforce strike. #China #silos

To estimate fatalities, we simulated attacks for each day of 2021 using @NOAA 's @hysplit atmospheric particle transport code together with @ivnstepanov ‘s nuclear war simulator. Our results are based on a total of 1600 hysplit runs (~8 weeks of CPU time) nuclearwarsimulator.com

We find that tens of millions of Chinese civilians would be at risk of lethal fallout. The proximity of one missile silo field to Beijing and prevailing winds suggest potential devastating consequences for the Chinese Capital. #China #Fallout #Beijing

The extent and direction of fallout depend on high-altitude wind patterns. Fallout from the Ordos field could also affect cities such as Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, and even Shanghai. The risk of radiation exposure is highest for this region. #Ordos

The results of the study are sobering. Without advance warning to shelter the population, we estimate the average fatalities could reach ~18 million. Accounting for sheltering, it could still be as high as ~5 million. In the worst cases, fatalities could be 3 times as high.

Fallout from the attacks would not be limited to China. We find that neighboring countries including North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, and Japan could also face additional fatalities, making this both a regional and global concern.

Our findings confirm the grave risks associated with siting large silo fields upwind from densely populated areas as well as highlight the devastating impact of nuclear attacks on civilian populations, even when they are not the intended targets. #HINW

The study raise important questions about China's nuclear-decision making process and the absence of debate about the risks and consequences of the current nuclear arms build up for Chinese citizens. (More soon.)

Finally, we would like to thank the @SGSJournal editors and reviewers for helping us improve our manuscript greatly. Have a read here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…