Joshua Landis Profile picture
Jun 1 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Why would @CAIRNational support sanctioning 17 million more Muslims?

The US #Sanctions are designed to keep #Syria in ruins and to stop reconstruction of the country, and stop foreign investment.

There is no U.S. plan to get rid of Assad or his security state.

This bill… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
To understand what's wrong with this bill you have to put it in the context of our current (failed) policy on #Syria

This two minute explanation by Dana Stroul gives a good summary of the policy



As Sproul says, the Assad-controlled areas of Syria are… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
As Joel Rayburn explained: US sanctions immiserate average Syrians because the Caesar Act "lowered the bar" for imposing them.

"With sanctions, oftentimes there can be a very high hurdle for the evidence that you have to gather in order to prove legal sufficiency under certain… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2) To occupy the one-third of Syria containing oil and gas resources with U.S. troops, and to prevent these resources from being accessed by the Assad regime.

This is a necessary adjunct to preventing economic reconstruction, since if the regime had control of these resources
it could supply power to the civilian economy & infrastructure as well as trade the oil for other resources

3) To prevent any normalization of relations between Syria and neighboring countries. Again, this is a necessary adjunct to keeping Assad-controlled areas as "rubble"
It prevents any normal civilian economy from emerging. If relations are normalized, economic interaction and investment can occur.

What is happening now is that the surrounding countries are getting sick of this policy and its regional side effects.
These side effects include continuing refugee flows, Assad making money through illegal means (i.e. drug dealing) in part because legal reconstruction is cut off, and the constant state of conflict in Syria.
What this bill does is respond to the Arab effort to deal with the situation by saying "No! You may not like our policy, but we're going to do it harder!".

It doubles down on sanctions in an attempt to assert U.S. authority over all of Syria's neighbors.

They have to comply… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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More from @joshua_landis

May 19
WSJ claims that “The Arab League’s about-turn, en­gi­neered by Riyadh, co­in-cides with Wash­ing­ton’s wan­ing in­flu­ence in the region. “

Why?

B/c the “U.S. has of­ten pressed for de­moc­ra­tiza­tion.”

But this is wrong. ==> 🧵 wsj.com/articles/syria…
US policy makers had decided by 2013 that they did not want to see the Syrian military destroyed b/c they feared that the opposition was dominated by radical Islamists & the country might fall apart.

The US chose Assad over the alternatives.

Blaming Russia is disingenuous
Read the Deputy Director of the CIA in 2013

"it's going to take the institution of the Syrian military and the institutions of the Syrian security services to defeat al Qaeda when this is done."

cbsnews.com/news/the-brief…
Read 6 tweets
May 17
Jordanians want sanctions on Syria lifted

Jordan's exports to Syria increased by 23% during the first 7 months of 2022, but are not close to prewar levels.

Jordanian economists demand that the Caesar Act that disrupted trade be lifted.

ammannet.net/english/jordan…
“The international sanctions on #Syria must be lifted, and Jordanian-Syrian economic relations must return to the status quo ante,” wrote Musa Al Saket, a member of the Amman Chamber of Commerce.
“The sanctions are unfair to our economy & the Syrian people,” he wrote. “Twelve years since the war broke out, more than 90% of the #Syria population lives below the poverty line, with limited access to food and medicine. This is a major catastrophe,” Saket added:
Read 6 tweets
Nov 28, 2022
US tries to thwart Turkish invasion of northern #Syria again

But with no long-term Syria policy, everyone sees the US commitment to the Kurds as weak and vacillating.

SDF Commander Mazlum Kobane insists that the US must do more: =>🧵

al-monitor.com/originals/2022… via @AlMonitor
Russia wants us to seek an agreement #Syria, Kobani told Zaman

“As for the U.S., they need to articulate a policy on Syria. They have no strategy beyond fighting [ISIS] and have failed to formulate a clear policy with regard to the future of the areas under our control. Image
"The absence of this policy makes it harder for us to negotiate successfully with Damascus,” adding that the US does not oppose talks with Assad’s government.

But Syria’s not ready, “and Russia is not applying enough pressure on them,” adds Kobane. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
Shifting energy import patterns enhance China’s clout in the Middle East

China became in 2016 the largest investor in the Arab world with investments worth $29.5 billion, targeted at infrastructure, industrial parks, pipelines, ports, and roads.
Total bilateral trade b/n Saudi Arabia & China grew from $42.4 billion in 2010 to $76 billion in 2019, quickly making China the top trading partner for Saudi Arabia.

In 2020, China replaced the European Union as the GCC’s largest trading partner.

agsiw.org/growing-china-…
Saudi Arabia was China’s top supplier of crude oil in 2021, accounting for 17% of Chinese oil imports.

KSA beat out even Russia, although since the Ukraine war, Russia may again top the KSA in export of oil to China due to discounting.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 22, 2022
The logic of Turkey and Syria returning to the Adana Agreement of 1998 or something approaching it is overwhelming.

Both Turks and Americans are learning that ruling hunks of Syria and unruly Syrians, is a thankless task that will sink them into ever growing trouble.
1. Idlib & N Aleppo cannot be made into a viable state. Neither can Kurdish led N.E. Syria.
2. ISIS is strengthened by Syria's partition into 3 waring parts.
3. There is no internat'l legitimacy to the N. Syrian statelets, which means that no oil company will undertake repairs.
4. The US gains little by its control of N Syria, save the knowledge that it has yet to forsake the Kurds. Turkey is the more important ally, causing the US to turn a blind eye to Erdogan's excellerating attacks on the SDF/YPG. It is a matter of time before US soldiers are killed
Read 6 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
I am linking to two videos made by a graduate student in Great Britain, Jalal Imran, as a part of his research on #Syria

Jisr video 1 t.me/WaR2011sl/6 (On Telegram)

This videos covers the violent episode in Jisr al-Shughour area in Syria in early June 2011.

Thread =>
This early phase of the Syrian conflict was characterized as a period of peaceful and spontaneous protests. The videos contradict this narrative.

The 1st video shows that large-scale violence in Jisr (dozens of Syrian security forces were killed) was the result of
an organized insurgency.

There was no army mutiny as the opposition asserted. The "mutiny" explanation served to obscure the existence of an armed insurgency and preserve the West's unique focus on regime violence.
Read 8 tweets

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