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Yan Qin Profile picture
@YanQinyq
Jun 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
European Carbon price shows very strong correlation with Gas price lately

Today: 📈Front-month TTF +23% and EUA +5%

Last week when TTF fell 14%, it pulled down #EUETS price too 📉 #Fuelswitchingison Image
TTF gas is up because 👇

And TTF gas is down today, EUA is down too 🙃

📈📉📈📉 Image
Well explained by @SStapczynski

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More from @YanQinyq

Yan Qin Profile picture
Jun 6
❗️China’s official response to EU Carbon tariff #CBAM #OCTT

Exclusive news by Yicai news from the 5 & 7 June WTO trade policy review of the EU 🇪🇺

🇨🇳 delegate: “CBAM is regrettable and fails to comply with UNFCCC, Paris Agreement principles and WTO rules” Image
Yicai news: “China said such measures would discriminate against imported products and restrict market access, especially for products from”
Yicai news:
“China cited a recent study by the African Climate Foundation that said CBAM would cost African countries $25 billion a year.”
Read 7 tweets
Yan Qin Profile picture
Feb 6
Gas shortages in Hebei province 🇨🇳

Check this in-depth analysis by Caijing news, with frontline interviews of the residents

-Long-existing problems of Pricing mechanism
-Legacy issues from the massive Coal to Gas conversion in 2017

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kRt1ULyB5A_M…
Late December, some residents in the northern Hebei province are faced with local gas shortages and purchase restrictions. They had to use coal or firewood.

The shortage lasted several weeks and is reportedly resolved in January.

scmp.com/economy/china-…
Caijing journalists visited the villages in Hebei and conducted onsite interviews to find out why gas shortages are recurring in Hebei again...

Several factors are behind this instance of shortage

BUT the key one is the Pricing mechanism/Gas market reform
Read 12 tweets
Yan Qin Profile picture
Feb 3
🚀This week European Carbon price approached €100

Main drivers:

Short-term: short-covering, options, catch-up hedging, colder weather

Underlying: Compliance demand, improving economic outlook and optimism following #EUETS reform deal

🧵A thread
The Dec23 EUA contract broke above several resistance levels in recent sessions, hitting €97.55/t on 1 February, the highest since August 2022.
The rally since mid-January has definitely caught some participants unprepared, triggering short-covering
Read 14 tweets
Yan Qin Profile picture
Mar 22, 2022
🇨🇳 state planner released the long-awaited 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy sector today.

by 2⃣0⃣2⃣5⃣:

Energy production: 4.6 bln tsce
CO2/GDP intensity: -18%
Energy/GDP intensity: -13.5%
Non-fossil: 20%
Non-fossil power: 39%

⚡️installed capacity: 3000 GW
This official doc '14th Five-Year Modern Energy System Plan' is dated 29 Jan 2022, approved by State Council then, and now released on 22 Mar by NDRC

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb…

(A quick look at the headline targets, largely in line with previously announced)
As expected, there is NO total energy consumption target in the plan.

Main targets (2021-2025) focus on below:
-Energy supply more secure/robust
-Low carbon transformation
-Energy system efficiency
-Innovation and development
-Service level enhanced
Read 6 tweets
Yan Qin Profile picture
Mar 18, 2022
⚠️China Carbon data fraud

On 14 March 🇨🇳environment ministry published official statement on Carbon emissions data falsification and slammed 4 firms for misconduct.

mee.gov.cn/ywgz/ydqhbh/ws…

🧵A thread with more info than the official statement
What happened?

4 firms were charged with forging data/testing reports/writing distorted and inaccurate conclusions in CO2 data verification

Zhongtan Nengtou 中碳能投
SinoCarbon 中创碳投
Qingdao Xinuo 青岛希诺新能源
Liaoning Dongmei 辽宁省东煤测试分析研究院
...there are of course huge incentives to fake the data

a coal power plant can show lower emissions than the actual data, then sell its surplus allowances in the carbon market 💰

It's reported some verifiers share the proceeds with the enterprise 50/50
Read 16 tweets
Yan Qin Profile picture
Jan 28, 2022
🚨China Power Sector Reform

🇨🇳NDRC just released Guidance on Speeding up establishing National Uniform Power Market

This is HUGE news 🎉

2025: preliminary completion 2030: finalizing national power market

Set up national Power Exchange
This new milestone document set out key components of China power market following the Document No.9 in 2015 kicking off the second round of power sector reform

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/2…

It is official: China power sector liberalization will speed up! 🚀
This monumental guideline has already been approved on 24 November 2021 at 22nd meeting of the central committee for deepening overall reform.

“the development of a unified national market system for electric power.”

news.cn/english/2021-1…
Read 27 tweets

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