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As the Allies launched their 1944 invasion of France, General Eisenhower told his troops that "the eyes of the world are upon you". This is true today as we witness a potential Ukrainian offensive. 1/24 🧵 
2/ Back in January, I explored important considerations for the Ukrainian offensives in 2023. As we watch the prelim activities of a possible Ukrainian campaign develop, I thought I would re-examine these considerations. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-campaign…
3/ Back then, I used the following seven considerations: purpose; design; timing; location; resources; adaptation; and politics. These are all still relevant. I have now added an eighth - training.
4/ Purpose. Purpose matters at every level of military endeavour. The Ukrainian campaign in 2023 will have a desired purpose. It is important in planning, and is vital in leadership and the execution of operations.
5/ For Ukraine, purpose has been explicitly described by President Zelensky. It is to clear the Russians from Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, and free Ukrainians in occupied areas. president.gov.ua/en/news/vorog-…
6/ Design. Operational design is an important component of military professionalism. Through good operational design, commanders and their staffs’ sequence and orchestrate tactical goals and actions to meet strategic and political objectives.
7/ Ukraine will have developed a design that considers how many offensive activities at once, and how each consecutive advance is sequenced. This design considers main effort, supporting efforts, command and control and opportunities to exploit breakthroughs.
8/ A vital aspect of campaign design is the prioritization for allocation of forces, logistic support, intelligence, transport, and inter-service collaboration. At least in theory, campaigns should be largely joint rather than service oriented.
9/ The Ukrainian operational design will seek to avoid what the Russians have tried to do during their invasion – advance on multiple fronts simultaneously without a main effort and little unity of effort. Good operational design will also underpin tactical mission command.
10/ Timing. In war, the ability to exploit time is one of the most important considerations in the planning and execution of military activities. Colin Gray writes that “every military plan at every level of war is ruled by the clock.”
11/ For the Ukrainians, timing for offensives is influenced by the ability to concentrate the numbers of forces required for close combat, engineer support (the advance takes a lot of engineers), artillery support, air support, communications, logistics, psyops, EW, etc.
12/ Timing for the Ukrainian offensive is also driven by the level of attrition of Russian forces, weather (especially cloud obscuration), phases of the moon (darkness still matters) as well as political considerations (examined later in this thread).
13/ Finally, timing for H-Hour will be influenced by Ukraine's ability to degrade Russia's logistics networks, supply holdings (especially munitions), reserves (think HIMARS on troop barracks) as well as their C2. mickryan.substack.com/p/striking-fur…
14/ Location. The locations of offensives will be an important consideration. Which part of Ukraine offers the most potential for gains in territory for the Ukrainian forces that might be available? And where are significant concentrations of Russian forces located?
15/ Terrain, and the cross country ‘going’, is an important consideration. Will the offensive be conducted over close terrain or open terrain? Will towns and cities be bypassed? Each drives the pace of advancing troops, their formations and logistic support.
16/ Resources. Offensive operations are expensive in recon assets (to find, fix & kill the enemy), artillery, armour and mobility support (engineers), logistics and air support. Multitudes of each, combined in Brigades, Divisions or Corps, will be needed. newsweek.com/ukraine-10000-…
17/ Follow on echelons are also needed. Whether this is passage of lines for exploitation forces, military police for traffic control, civil police or reconstruction personnel, once territory and towns is liberated, Ukrainian government authority needs to be re-established.
18/ The provision of Western aid has been vital including newer IFVs & tanks. Support vehicles like recovery vehicles, engineer vehicles, fuel trucks and low loaders are also critical, as will be the fuel and ammunition for them.
19/ Adaptation. The Ukrainians – especially at the tactical level – have been superior to the Russians at recognising and exploiting battlefield opportunities. Deceiving the Russians, achieving surprise and adapting to exploit opportunities will be vital.
20/ Training. This has been crucial as #Ukraine raises new units, reinforces old ones, inducts new equipment and conducts the planning and rehearsals for its offensive operations. Training leaders and planners has been an important 2023 activity. washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/…
21/ Politics. A final consideration, for both sides for their offensives in 2023 will be politics. As Clausewitz tells us: “War is not merely an act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, carried on with other means.”
22/ The 2023 offensive will be connected to politics. Liberation of Ukrainian territory and its citizens, and hurting the Russians to influence their political leaders, are important political considerations for Ukraine. So too is ensuring Western nations see this as a success.
23/ In the coming days and weeks, we will witness all 8 of these considerations in play. All of them will have influenced the overall design of the Ukrainian campaign. All 8 will impact on Ukrainians leading at every level. Good luck to them all. End.
24/ Thank you to the following whose images and links were used in this thread: @abcnews @washingtonpost @DefenceU @GeneralStaffUA @Militarylandnet @Newsweek. You can read more at my substack: mickryan.substack.com
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