Thread by @ZimermanErik

To this Kakhovka dam collapse picture, let us add a few thoughts.

We can clearly see that one thing that the destruction of the dam does is reverse the situation in the front upstream and downstream from the dam.

Let use the @DefensePolitics map to illustrate. On the eve of

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1666043545113731077

collapse, the river was narrow downstream of the dam, and Russian forces contended with crossing attempts by UA forces on a daily basis. They had occupied the middle islands, and with a powerful base of Kherson city itself right up to the bank, made a powerful force projection

across the bank. RU had to maintain relatively strong forces in this area. Above the dam, the river was much wider (Lake Kakhovka) and Russia thus maintained lesser positions. A look at a very rough deployment map (militaryland) shows us what I mean.

The destruction of the dam

reverses this situation. The river downstream became wide (flooding Russian positions in the lower Russian held bank), and the water level upstream dropped (and continues dropping). It makes sense that this was part of the great long awaited UA counteroffensive. Otherwise, the

timing is quite peculiar. As UA forces broke through either or both fronts in the east (around Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka), they could race down towards Tokmak while an additional pincer or pincers could cross from the Kherson and Nikopol areas, where the lower water level now

permitted it. A chaotic and flooded Russian western Kherson front would be disorganized and unable to redeploy. If the pincer reached the Crimean edge, this whole force could have been trapped. The crossing also would allow getting behind the coveted Enerhodar nuclear ZPP.

A variety of smaller and larger pincers and envelopments could be imagined. Throwing the Kherson western line off balance with flooding would be quite helpful as you reverse the water level realities above and below the dam. Of course, as the counteroffensives had not achieved

much (will update on them next) by June 6th, one can imagine the UA command choosing to go ahead with the thoroughly planned dam destruction anyway. And in fact, the seemingly well planned (or surpassingly quick) boat evacuations of UA troops on the islands, and the attempted

but failed crossings around Zolota Balka by UA forces would be further indication of this intent. Finally, it would further explain why so many of the new Western trained brigades have remained behind (west of) the Dnieper around Nikopol. While they look like they are tucked away

safely, but can quickly cross at Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro if needed in the front, an alternative option would be that they are poised to push through a successful cross-Dnieper operation. Not much of this plan has thus panned out of course, whatever it was, but the dam is in large

destroyed. Have been waiting for Sentinel 2 images which finally are available for the 8th of June but unfortunately the area is rather cloudy. But between Sentinel 2 and 3, we an see that indeed downstream is greatly flooded on the Russian side, & upstream the level is dropping

dangerously. Above we see Sentinel 2 images for June 5th vs 8th (after the collapse). Clearly the dam is badly damaged and the lower delta is heavily flooded, as are large parts of the southern (RU held) bank. By using Sentinel 3 images (lower res) , we can see just how wide the

Dnieper expanded, into the Russian held side. When we look further north, upstream from the dam, we can see clearly, by comparing June 5th and June 8th, that the water level dropped significantly (note the expanded dry areas around the banks). If we look to the nuclear power

plant in Zaporizhzhia, we can see that the width of the land around the cooling pond at one point expanded from around 418 meters to 554 meters. Though Russian officials are doing what they can to maintain the safety of the plant, the combination of constant shelling and now

dropping water levels is certainly not a laughing matter. UA command can do any of this with impunity due to mainstream coverage as we have discussed. In fact, one can add to the benefits in a pros and cons list for the UA command regarding the destruction of the dam, that

mainstream media will blame Russia for the act and all of its consequences regardless of any facts. Just another cherry on top (the other side of the coin of why false flag operations by RU to blame UA of anything are absurd since the media will not hear of it). We have discussed

both of these issues previously. The additional thread about the dam collapse, and its potential connection to the UA offensive done, let us move on to update regarding the counteroffensive itself.

#RussiaUkraineWar #KakhovkaDam