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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jun 9 • 6 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukrainian attacks in western #Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current #counteroffensive. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ #Ukraine appears to have committed only a portion of the large reserve of forces available for counteroffensive operations.
3/ It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater...
4/ ...and their defensive performance is unlikely to be reflective of the defensive capabilities of Russian groupings elsewhere on the front. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
5/ The Russian defense of this sector should not be taken as indicative of overall Russian defensive capabilities as Ukraine continues counteroffensive operations. Russian forces defending in other sectors have indeed performed much more poorly.
6/ Ukraine, having recently regained the battlefield initiative across the theater, will be able to choose exactly where in to continue attacking based on the observed defensive capabilities of various RU groupings along the frontline among other factors. isw.pub/UkrWar060823

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jun 9
Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ Russian doctrine for a defending motorized rifle battalion calls for a first echelon of troops to repel or slow attacking forces with minefields, fortifications, and strongpoints, with a second echelon of forces counterattacking against an enemy breakthrough.
3/ Russian forces apparently operated in this fashion in this sector – Ukrainian forces penetrated the initial defensive lines; Russian forces pulled back to a second line of fortifications; and Russian reserves subsequently counterattacked to retake the initial line of defenses.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 9
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack in western #Zaporizhia Oblast with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ The overall Russian response to the attack, both among milbloggers and the MoD, was notably coherent and relatively consistent with the available visual evidence, which may suggest that Russian forces were not surprised and reacted in a controlled and militarily sound manner.
3/ As ISW has previously assessed, the Russian information space reacts with a high degree of chaos and incoherence when taken by surprise by battlefield developments that do not allow the propaganda apparatus to develop a clear line.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 9
Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western #Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.🧵⬇️ Image
2/ Russian sources began reporting late at night on June 7 that elements of Ukrainian brigades that have recently been equipped with Western kit launched an attack southwest of Orikhiv in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
3/ Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked along the Mala Tokmachka-Polohy line with the aim of breaking through the Russian defensive line between Robotyne and Verbove (both about 15km southeast of Orikhiv). isw.pub/UkrWar060823
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 9
NEW: #Ukraine has conducted #counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.

Latest assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar060823 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian officials signaled that Ukrainian forces have transitioned from defensive to offensive operations in the #Bakhmut sector and are making gains of between 200 meters and nearly two kilometers on the flanks of the city. Image
3/ Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains during limited localized counterattacks in western #Donetsk Oblast near the #Donetsk-#Zaporizhia Oblast border since June 4. Image
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 8
The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun.

Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.

🧵on what we’re seeing & how to evaluate this activity ⬇️ isw.pub/InteractiveUkr…
2/ Ukrainian officials have long signaled that there will not be an announcement that the #counteroffensive has begun.
3/ The #counteroffensive won’t likely unfold as a single grand operation. It will likely consist of many undertakings at numerous locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks.
Read 15 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 8
Ukrainian officials continued to accuse Russian forces of destroying the #KakhovkaDam out of fear that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank #Kherson Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar060723
2/ Russian milbloggers had expressed concern about claimed Ukrainian river crossings onto the east bank the day before the destruction of the #KakhovkaHPP dam and on numerous occasions in the past.
3/ ISW offers no assessment of whether the Ukrainians were attempting to cross the river or for what purpose they might have sought to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar060723
Read 4 tweets

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