Sunny River Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023 β€’ 15 tweets β€’ 9 min read β€’ Read on X
A $700B bank has just predicted that #Bitcoin will hit $100K by the end of 2024! πŸš€

With #Bitcoin currently at $25,000, $100k seems a long way off... UNTIL we look at:

πŸ“ˆ The #Bitcoin multiplier effect
🀯 The other Banks buying #Bitcoin in Q1 2023

🧡Time for a THREAD 🧡

1/ Image
Before we explore what BOA & Blackrock are doing, we're going to look at some simple grade 11 maths behind this $100,000 prediction, because:

EVERYBODY is doing their #Bitcoin math WRONG!

Most people would assume that to reach $100K, Bitcoin needs to reach a MC of $2.1T...

2/ Image
This is... CORRECT

$21T/21M = $100,000 per #Bitcoin

Considering BTC has a MC of around $500B today, that would mean we would only need around $1.5T-$$1.6T of capital to flow into Bitcoin, right...?

3/ Image
WRONG!

This is wrong because it doesn't account for the fact that not all the 21M Bitcoin are actually available for sale.

For example, 78% of the Bitcoin supply hasn't moved in over a year!

Due to Bitcoins scarcity, we need to do something with our maths equation...

4/ Image
When calculating any future valuations of BTC, we need to consider that not all 21 million Bitcoins are available for sale.

We can see that ON AVERAGE over the last 5 years, for every $1 that tries to buy BTC, it pushes the MC up by around 2.6X.

Welcome to what I call...

5/ Image
''The #Bitcoin multiplier effect!''

Now let's use it correctly in our maths equation to find out why $100,000 in 2024 COULD be conservative!

Let's round up from 2.6X to 3X for simplified demonstrative purposes and get bullish with the correct maths we should be using...

6/ Image
CONSIDERING our Multiplier effect, we would now ONLY need $0.533T of NEW capital wanting to buy #BTC to get our desired $1.6T of inflows we need to push #BTC to that magic $2.1T MC!

Suddenly that $100,000 prediction doesn't look so outrageous...

But wait, there's more...

7/ Image
This 2.6X multiplier effect is based on the previous 5 years of data..

Since 2020 something UNPRECEDENTED has happened in BTC!

1M #BTC have left exchanges since 2020, creating a 3-year supply suffocation!

Exchange balance:
πŸ“ˆ Mar 2020: 3.1M
πŸ“‰ May 2023: 2.1M

What's worse?

8/ Image
Some HUGE US banks have silently bought RECORD amounts of #Bitcoin during Q1 2023...

These banks include:
BLACKROCK
BOA
Fidelity

These banks are buying HUGE amounts of MSTR stock, which is the easiest way for some US investors to get exposure to the price movements of BTC.

9/ Image
We can see that in Q1 2023:

πŸ“ˆ BlackRock has a 6% stake in MSTR
πŸ“ˆ BOA bought 47,800% more MSTR stock
πŸ“ˆ Fidelity bought 28,000% more MSTR stock

2 of those names are SUPER interesting because...

10/ Image
Yes, that's the same BOA who pointed to the fact BTC had a multiplier effect of over 100X for a brief period of time in 2021...

And YES, that's the same BlackRock that only invests in ESG-friendly companies!

Have both giants changed their mind about #Bitcoin...

11/ Image
The #Bitcoin supply is becoming even MORE illiquid every day as we witness Binance suffering from a bank run!

Why are these banks silently buying HUGE swaths of MSTR?

Could this change BTCs cycle?

Will this cause the multiplier to rise in future Bitcoin bull markets?

12/ Image
We'll explore those Qs in more detail below, HOWEVER in the meantime...

If you've enjoyed this 🧡 so far, we'd appreciate it if you:

1. RT the tweet below to share this 🧡 with your audience
2. Follow us @BTC_Culture & @LukeMikic21 for more 🧡s

13/
For those who want to read more on this topic, we explore these questions in more detail in our free 5-minute weekly Sunday newsletter!

Check that one out here-πŸ‘‡
btcculture.com

For those who prefer video content, we've got you covered as well...πŸ‘‡

14/
For those who want to learn more on this topic, Luke recently covered this topic in depth on YT in this videoπŸ‘‡

TLDR: No one is bullish enough!

The halving is coming in 2024, and the supply is shrinking as demand is about to go PARABOLIC!


15/

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