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Sunny River

@sunnyriverr

Jun 12, 2023 • 15 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X

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A $700B bank has just predicted that #Bitcoin will hit $100K by the end of 2024! 🚀

With #Bitcoin currently at $25,000, $100k seems a long way off... UNTIL we look at:

📈 The #Bitcoin multiplier effect
🤯 The other Banks buying #Bitcoin in Q1 2023

🧵Time for a THREAD 🧵

1/

Before we explore what BOA & Blackrock are doing, we're going to look at some simple grade 11 maths behind this $100,000 prediction, because:

EVERYBODY is doing their #Bitcoin math WRONG!

Most people would assume that to reach $100K, Bitcoin needs to reach a MC of $2.1T...

2/

This is... CORRECT

$21T/21M = $100,000 per #Bitcoin

Considering BTC has a MC of around $500B today, that would mean we would only need around $1.5T-$$1.6T of capital to flow into Bitcoin, right...?

3/

WRONG!

This is wrong because it doesn't account for the fact that not all the 21M Bitcoin are actually available for sale.

For example, 78% of the Bitcoin supply hasn't moved in over a year!

Due to Bitcoins scarcity, we need to do something with our maths equation...

4/

When calculating any future valuations of BTC, we need to consider that not all 21 million Bitcoins are available for sale.

We can see that ON AVERAGE over the last 5 years, for every $1 that tries to buy BTC, it pushes the MC up by around 2.6X.

Welcome to what I call...

5/

''The #Bitcoin multiplier effect!''

Now let's use it correctly in our maths equation to find out why $100,000 in 2024 COULD be conservative!

Let's round up from 2.6X to 3X for simplified demonstrative purposes and get bullish with the correct maths we should be using...

6/

CONSIDERING our Multiplier effect, we would now ONLY need $0.533T of NEW capital wanting to buy #BTC to get our desired $1.6T of inflows we need to push #BTC to that magic $2.1T MC!

Suddenly that $100,000 prediction doesn't look so outrageous...

But wait, there's more...

7/

This 2.6X multiplier effect is based on the previous 5 years of data..

Since 2020 something UNPRECEDENTED has happened in BTC!

1M #BTC have left exchanges since 2020, creating a 3-year supply suffocation!

Exchange balance:
📈 Mar 2020: 3.1M
📉 May 2023: 2.1M

What's worse?

8/

Some HUGE US banks have silently bought RECORD amounts of #Bitcoin during Q1 2023...

These banks include:
BLACKROCK
BOA
Fidelity

These banks are buying HUGE amounts of MSTR stock, which is the easiest way for some US investors to get exposure to the price movements of BTC.

9/

We can see that in Q1 2023:

📈 BlackRock has a 6% stake in MSTR
📈 BOA bought 47,800% more MSTR stock
📈 Fidelity bought 28,000% more MSTR stock

2 of those names are SUPER interesting because...

10/

Yes, that's the same BOA who pointed to the fact BTC had a multiplier effect of over 100X for a brief period of time in 2021...

And YES, that's the same BlackRock that only invests in ESG-friendly companies!

Have both giants changed their mind about #Bitcoin...

11/

The #Bitcoin supply is becoming even MORE illiquid every day as we witness Binance suffering from a bank run!

Why are these banks silently buying HUGE swaths of MSTR?

Could this change BTCs cycle?

Will this cause the multiplier to rise in future Bitcoin bull markets?

12/

@BTC_Culture

We'll explore those Qs in more detail below, HOWEVER in the meantime...

If you've enjoyed this 🧵 so far, we'd appreciate it if you:

1. RT the tweet below to share this 🧵 with your audience
2. Follow us @BTC_Culture & @LukeMikic21 for more 🧵s

13/

https://twitter.com/BTC_Culture/status/1668381045392044039?s=20

For those who want to read more on this topic, we explore these questions in more detail in our free 5-minute weekly Sunday newsletter!

Check that one out here-👇
btcculture.com

For those who prefer video content, we've got you covered as well...👇

14/

https://twitter.com/LukeMikic21/status/1667957422000840707?s=20

For those who want to learn more on this topic, Luke recently covered this topic in depth on YT in this video👇

TLDR: No one is bullish enough!

The halving is coming in 2024, and the supply is shrinking as demand is about to go PARABOLIC!

https://twitter.com/LukeMikic21/status/1667957422000840707?s=20

15/

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