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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 14 • 11 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo

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@smh

My latest article is now available at the Sydney Morning Herald (@smh). In this article, I included some advice for those observing the Ukrainian 2023 offensives from afar… 1/11 🧵

2/ First, understand that in military operations first reports are almost always wrong. smh.com.au/world/europe/w…

3/ There have been many initial reports about success or failure in this offensive. We should remain wary of these in the short term and not rush to judgment about the overall success or otherwise of the Ukrainian offensives.

4/ Second, it is impossible to assess the progress of a war, or even a single battle, from a picture or video.

5/ One photo over the weekend, showing multiple Ukrainian armoured vehicles damaged and stationary, was used as evidence for a multitude of different assessments.

6/ When observing the war at a distance, time is required to assemble many different data sets from varying sources to ascertain the direction of the conflict.

7/ Third, avoid the fallacy of certainty. Despite the enhanced transparency of the modern battlefield provided by a meshed network of military and civilian sensors, human will cannot be viewed remotely or through social media.

8/ The fog and friction of war, explored by Carl von Clausewitz in On War, is every bit as relevant today as it was two centuries ago when Clausewitz wrote his book. There are no certainties in war; beware of those who predict definitive outcomes.

9/ Finally, strategic patience is essential. These kinds of operations often unfold slowly at first, and then, as they generate tempo, can evolve very rapidly. We must be patient over the coming weeks.

10/ In saving their nation, the Ukrainians are attempting the most difficult form of military operation possible. They are not working to the comfortable timelines of the Western media or commentators. smh.com.au/world/europe/w…

@smh

11/ Thank you to the following whose links and images are used in this thread: @smh @Militarylandnet @TDF_UA @UAWeapons @DefenceU @combined2forces

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More from @WarintheFuture

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 13

In the past week, Ukrainian armed forces have come under a spotlight as analysts pore over reports to divine how the 2023 offensive is progressing. It is much too early for such strategic judgements. It is however timely to review the Russian response. 1/25 🧵

2/ Having culminated in their 2023 offensive, the Russians must now (largely) turn to the strategic defensive to defend against the Ukrainian campaign just commenced. What are the next moves for the overall Russian commander, General Valery Gerasimov?

3/ In an article published in May 2023, I characterised Gerasimov as a four-time loser. This is important context in considering his response to the developing Ukrainian 2023 offensive. A brief exploration of his recent failures are as follows. abc.net.au/news/2023-05-0…

Read 25 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 10

In his 9 June speech, President Zelensky noted that “for our soldiers, for all those who are in particularly tough battles these days. We see your heroism.” Now the Ukrainian 2023 offensive has begun, some initial thoughts & analysis (based on my longer substack piece). 1/24 🧵

2/ While many describe this as a counteroffensive, I will be describing it as the 2023 offensive or 2023 campaign. This will be a campaign, consisting of multiple operations and offensives across a 1000km frontline.

3/ So far, the Ukrainian campaign has consisted of three key elements. In the preliminary phase, political strikes were conducted against Moscow and Belgorod to confuse the Russian leadership and prod it into making changes in force dispositions (including air defence).

Read 24 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 10

President Zelensky has noted that “for our soldiers, for all those who are in particularly tough battles these days. We see your heroism.” Now the Ukrainian 2023 offensive has begun, some initial thoughts and analysis (a short version of my latest Futura Doctrina post). 1/24 🧵

2/ While many describe this as a counteroffensive, I will be describing it as the 2023 offensives or 2023 campaign. This will be a campaign, consisting of multiple operations and offensives across a 1000km frontline.

Read 11 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 7

As the Allies launched their 1944 invasion of France, General Eisenhower told his troops that "the eyes of the world are upon you". This is true today as we witness a potential Ukrainian offensive. 1/24 🧵

2/ Back in January, I explored important considerations for the Ukrainian offensives in 2023. As we watch the prelim activities of a possible Ukrainian campaign develop, I thought I would re-examine these considerations. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-campaign…

3/ Back then, I used the following seven considerations: purpose; design; timing; location; resources; adaptation; and politics. These are all still relevant. I have now added an eighth - training.

Read 24 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Jun 4

As Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has noted over the weekend, #Ukraine is ready for its coming offensives. H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives will have been set and is drawing near. 1/24 🧵

2/ Preliminary actions have been taking place for months. Since late 2022, Ukrainian planners, diplomats and strategic leaders have been reviewing different plans, working with allies and wargaming options for their 2023 offensives against the Russians.

3/ Ukrainian training institutions have been preparing soldiers and leaders, which has been supplemented by tactical and technical training being undertaken in NATO countries. Brigades and battalions have been conducting collective training and rehearsals.

Read 24 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

May 22

In the past few months, many western nations have stepped up the provision of weapons and munitions to #Ukraine. This will be key to the coming Ukrainian offensives. But #leadership at all levels of the Ukrainian government and military will be even more important. 1/23🧵

2/ There are two aspects of combat power which are vital for Ukraine’s defence. These are the moral and intellectual elements of their nation's fighting power.

3/ The intellectual component provides the knowledge of war, strategy and cognitive capability – the ‘what to think’. The moral component reinforces culture, values and legitimacy, and is a foundation for the will to fight.

Read 23 tweets

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