OddAlerts Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
There is a lot of value in player booking markets.

But 99% of people use basic stats and poor research methods.

Here's how you can filter through thousands of players in seconds to find high-potential players for bookings: Image
Finding high-potential players comes from qualifying multiple rules at once. A player might make 2+ fouls per game, yes, but how many games have they completed? Who were the previous cards against? All of these questions (and more) formed the UI below. Let me show you more.
This tool (Player Search from @OddAlerts) allows you to filter through thousands of players in a matter of seconds. In this example, we are combining FOUR rules to find players we might be interested in for a booking this weekend. Let me explain the rules: Image
Appearances and Started %: This is pretty self-explanatory, but it's important to consider. These two metrics work well together, as a player may have started 100% of the games, but if the season is only 5 games long, it's not a significant sample size.
I like to add 1+ yellow card just so we get a collection of players that have already been booked at least once this season. Fouls (AVG) is a great place to start, but don't forget to check out the individual profile of the player. Here's a look at Benteke (2.76 PG). Image
Let's click the rule we wan to sort by and hit search...

MAGIC ✨🚀

3,742 players into 13 highly qualified players for you to explore.
The tool in this thread is the new Player Search and it's being tested by @OddAlerts users right now. It will be launching fully on the 26th June.

Explore 👇
oddalerts.com/players/search
If you liked this, you will get value from:

oddalerts.com/referees
oddalerts.com/foul-alerts

It might be post-season, but the referee page still acts as a great shortlist for potential card bets, entering the game via the referee first as opposed to the teams or players. Image

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More from @OddAlerts

Apr 17
Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

34 games across the Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵
⚽ Sassuolo vs Como
🏆 Serie A

📊 Como concede just 0.5/game away with 5 clean sheets — Sassuolo ship 1.5/game, Under 2.5 @ 2.00 has +5% value (model 52.5% vs 50% implied)
📊 BTTS in 8/10 for both sides, but Como outshot opponents in 7/10 and allow just 0.64 xGA — Over 2.5 @ 1.78 overpriced (model only 47.5%)
📊 Sassuolo avg 5.8 corners in 2H vs 3.9 in 1H — Over 10.5 corners in 6/10, model 37% vs 34.8% implied @ 2.15, modest late-set-piece value
📊 4/10 Sassuolo and 2/10 Como matches saw reds, Sassuolo sent off in 3/10 — high card risk in a balanced game could swing results
📊 Sassuolo Home Win @ 5.10 has +37.3% value — model 26.9% vs 19.6% implied, big price to oppose Como's 5W-4D-1L and 6W-3D-1L away

⚽ St. Pauli vs FC Köln
🏆 Bundesliga

📊 38 goals shipped in 20 combined games, yet model projects ~2.0 goals — Under 2.5 model 54.5% vs 57.5% implied @ 1.74, leans slightly against a goal fest
📊 St. Pauli blanked in 5/10 averaging 0.8 home goals — Köln scored in 9/10 with 31% in first 15 minutes, away attack more consistent
📊 Köln 0W-4D-6L away conceding 2.0/game — St. Pauli 3W-2D-5L with -12 GD and 8 conceded in last 3, two fragile sides meet
📊 St. Pauli 2H avg 1.7 goals vs 0.9 in 1H — Köln 38% of goals after 70', 2nd Half as Highest Scoring @ 2.2 fits late-action pattern
📊 Köln Away Win @ 3.2 has +22.4% value — model 38.2% vs 31.3% implied despite winless in 10 away, St. Pauli outshot in 7/10
⚽ Lens vs Toulouse
🏆 Ligue 1

📊 Lens hit 26 goals in 10 (2.6/game) with O2.5 in 9/10 — Over 2.5 @ 1.79 has +12.9% value (model 63.1% vs 55.9% implied)
📊 Lens 9W-0D-1L at home conceding 0.6/game with 6 clean sheets — Toulouse lost to nil in 3/10, supports Lens-heavy angles
📊 Lens outscored Toulouse 26–11 over 10 games with 2.27 xG — BTTS Yes @ 1.84 has ~+9% value (model 59.3% vs 54.3% implied)
📊 Lens lean late (2H avg 2.5 goals vs 1.6 in 1H) but Toulouse skew early (1H avg 1.6 vs 0.9 in 2H) — Highest Scoring Half a volatility play
📊 Toulouse Away Win @ 5.8 has +13.9% value — model 19.6% vs 17.2% implied, high-risk given Lens' 9-0-1 home run

⚽ Inter vs Cagliari
🏆 Serie A

📊 Inter 2H avg 1.7 goals vs 1.1 in 1H, Cagliari 1.5 vs 0.7 with 6/10 most goals after HT — 2H Over 0.5 @ 1.16 strongly supported
📊 BTTS in 8/10 Inter home and 8/10 Cagliari away, but Cagliari blanked in 4/10 overall — model sides with BTTS No at 57.3%, tight market
📊 Inter avg 16.3 shots vs Cagliari's 10.6, outshot opponents in 8/10 and won corners in 7/10 — Inter-driven corner markets preferred over thin match-winner odds
📊 3/10 Cagliari games featured reds, sent off twice — elevated card risk can skew goals and result markets live
📊 Under 2.5 @ 2.48 has +14.8% value — model 46.3% vs 40.3% implied, Inter's 0.87 xGA and Cagliari's 4 blanks counter the overs image
Read 18 tweets
Mar 20
Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

46 games across the Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie B, La Liga 2.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵
⚽ Cagliari vs Napoli
🏆 Serie A

📊 Napoli scored in 9 straight and 9/10 overall — Cagliari blanked in 4/10 and lost to nil in 3
📊 BTTS Yes @ 2.20 (implied 45.5%) vs model 52.2% — +14.7% value backed by Napoli's relentless attack
📊 6/10 for both sides see most goals after the break — Cagliari 2H avg 1.6 vs 0.8 in 1H, late drama expected
📊 Cagliari Home Win @ 6.25 has +71.9% value — model gives 27.5% vs just 16% implied, live upset angle
📊 Over 2.5 in 9/10 Napoli games — model 47.1% vs 44.8% implied @ 2.23, modest +5% value

⚽ RB Leipzig vs TSG Hoffenheim
🏆 Bundesliga

📊 Leipzig 2H avg 2.4 goals vs 0.9 in 1H — 7/10 games see most goals after the break
📊 Hoffenheim 6W-2D-2L, avg 2 goals and 6.1 shots on target — Away Win @ 3.45 has +5.4% value
📊 Under 2.5 @ 3.00 has +15.7% value — model 38.6% vs 33.3% implied, fade the public goal rush
📊 Hoffenheim avg 12.2 corners/game, O9.5 in 8/10 and O11.5 in 7/10 — Over 10.5 corners @ 2.00 justified
📊 Leipzig 2.12 xG but only 1.6 scored — BTTS & O2.5 @ 1.61 consistent with regression-up narrative
⚽ Lens vs Angers SCO
🏆 Ligue 1

📊 Lens 9W-0D-1L at home conceding 0.6/game with 6 clean sheets — BTTS Yes @ 2.14 has +12.5% value
📊 Lens scored in 10/10 (23 goals, 2.3/game), 2.15 xG — Angers just 7 goals in 10 with 0.83 xG
📊 Lens scored 1H in 7/10 and win corner count in 8/10 — 2H O0.5 @ 1.22 backed by model's 79.9%
📊 Angers Away Win @ 11.5 has +112.2% value — model 18.5% vs 8.7% implied, huge upset angle
📊 Lens O2.5 in 8/10 but Angers U1.5 in 5/10 — market @ 1.72 already reflects the stylistic clash

⚽ Genoa vs Udinese
🏆 Serie A

📊 Genoa 2H avg 1.9 goals vs 0.9 in 1H — 44% of goals after 70', O1.5 2H @ 2.55 looks appealing
📊 Over 2.5 @ 2.48 has +20.8% value — model 48.7% vs 40.3% implied, Genoa home games consistently open
📊 BTTS Yes @ 2.04 has +10.7% value — model 54.3% vs 49% implied, mutual defensive fragility narrative
📊 O4.5 cards in 6/10 Genoa with 3 reds — no Udinese reds, clear disciplinary imbalance
📊 Udinese Away Win @ 3.8 has +13.9% value — model 30% vs 26.3% implied against 4W-3D-3L Genoa
Read 24 tweets
Feb 20
Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

38 games across the PL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga & Ligue 1.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵
⚽ Brest vs Olympique Marseille
🏆 Ligue 1

📊 Marseille's last 10 games average 4.6 total goals
📊 Over 2.5 has landed in all 10 of Marseille's last 10
📊 Marseille have scored 26 and conceded 20 in their last 10
📊 Brest have scored in 9 of their last 10
📊 Brest have 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home games
📊 Marseille score 3.2 goals per game away from home
📊 9 of Marseille's 10 away matches went Over 2.5
📊 In 7 of Marseille's last 10, most goals came after the break
📊 Marseille generate 15.3 shots and 6.7 on target per game
📊 Marseille overperform xG: 2.6 actual goals vs 1.77 xG per game
📊 Over 4.5 cards in 7 of Brest's last 10 with a red card in 3
📊 41 goals across both sides' last 20 games combined
📊 Last 10: Brest is defensively tighter (13 conceded) than Marseille (20)
📊 Model projects 4.1 total goals for this match
⚽ Sassuolo vs Hellas Verona
🏆 Serie A

📊 These sides have shipped 36 goals in 20 combined games
📊 Verona have a -13 goal difference in their last 10
📊 Verona concede 2.0 per game vs just 1.34 xGA
📊 Verona have lost by 2+ in 4 of their last 10
📊 Over 2.5 has landed in 7 of Verona's last 10
📊 Sassuolo have failed to score in 5 of their last 10
📊 Verona have failed to score in 6 of their last 10
📊 6 of Sassuolo's last 10 saw most goals after the break
📊 Sassuolo are 3W-2D-5L and out-cornered in 8 of their last 10
📊 Verona are 1W-3D-6L but have kept 3 away clean sheets
Read 39 tweets
May 11, 2022
This morning in Australia we have a few teams looking to continue their impressive goal-scoring efforts, and some hoping to break certain trends. I'll take a look at them in the tweets below 👇
Cockburn has scored in each of their opening 4 games, winning just once. Each of those games has also seen 3 or more goals being scored. They host Sorrento, who has already scored 5 goals in 2 games this season. More: oddalerts.com/set/cockburn-c…
In the Northern NSW, Charlestown City Blues (2nd) is looking to make it 8/8 in terms of scoring. They remain unbeaten, winning 5/7. Interestingly, BTTS has landed in 100% of games for them this season. More: oddalerts.com/set/cooks-hill…
Read 5 tweets
May 11, 2022
I have been betting on BTTS for a long time. Here is 5 key lessons I have learnt over the years.

🧵👇
1️⃣ The first lesson is to focus on the away side. I give more weight to their performance and ability to score.
Look for teams that can handle themselves away from home. They do not need to be excellent, but clearly able to consistently score. This fixture from Costa Rica is a good, recent example: oddalerts.com/set/san-carlos…
Read 19 tweets
May 10, 2022
🤝 Haaland is on his way to City, as predicted in millions of #FM22 saves.

⬆️ I'm currently enjoying a long-term save with Blackpool but there's just no hope of breaking into the elite whilst he remains at City. #MCFC

🧵 Let's take a look at his City career in the year 2033...
This is what his profile looks like at 33 YEARS OLD. There is just no letting up for this beast, and he seemingly gets better with age. 18-20 attributes everywhere you look. Silly stuff.
😆 He signed for Manchester City in 22/23 for £135m and proceeded to score 310 goals in 360 games.
Read 5 tweets

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