Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

34 games across the Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵 ⚽ Sassuolo vs Como
🏆 Serie A

📊 Como concede just 0.5/game away with 5 clean sheets — Sassuolo ship 1.5/game, Under 2.5 @ 2.00 has +5% value (model 52.5% vs 50% implied)
📊 BTTS in 8/10 for both sides, but Como outshot opponents in 7/10 and allow just 0.64 xGA — Over 2.5 @ 1.78 overpriced (model only 47.5%)
📊 Sassuolo avg 5.8 corners in 2H vs 3.9 in 1H — Over 10.5 corners in 6/10, model 37% vs 34.8% implied @ 2.15, modest late-set-piece value
📊 4/10 Sassuolo and 2/10 Como matches saw reds, Sassuolo sent off in 3/10 — high card risk in a balanced game could swing results
📊 Sassuolo Home Win @ 5.10 has +37.3% value — model 26.9% vs 19.6% implied, big price to oppose Como's 5W-4D-1L and 6W-3D-1L away

⚽ St. Pauli vs FC Köln
🏆 Bundesliga

📊 38 goals shipped in 20 combined games, yet model projects ~2.0 goals — Under 2.5 model 54.5% vs 57.5% implied @ 1.74, leans slightly against a goal fest
📊 St. Pauli blanked in 5/10 averaging 0.8 home goals — Köln scored in 9/10 with 31% in first 15 minutes, away attack more consistent
📊 Köln 0W-4D-6L away conceding 2.0/game — St. Pauli 3W-2D-5L with -12 GD and 8 conceded in last 3, two fragile sides meet
📊 St. Pauli 2H avg 1.7 goals vs 0.9 in 1H — Köln 38% of goals after 70', 2nd Half as Highest Scoring @ 2.2 fits late-action pattern
📊 Köln Away Win @ 3.2 has +22.4% value — model 38.2% vs 31.3% implied despite winless in 10 away, St. Pauli outshot in 7/10

Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

46 games across the Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie B, La Liga 2.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵 ⚽ Cagliari vs Napoli
🏆 Serie A

📊 Napoli scored in 9 straight and 9/10 overall — Cagliari blanked in 4/10 and lost to nil in 3
📊 BTTS Yes @ 2.20 (implied 45.5%) vs model 52.2% — +14.7% value backed by Napoli's relentless attack
📊 6/10 for both sides see most goals after the break — Cagliari 2H avg 1.6 vs 0.8 in 1H, late drama expected
📊 Cagliari Home Win @ 6.25 has +71.9% value — model gives 27.5% vs just 16% implied, live upset angle
📊 Over 2.5 in 9/10 Napoli games — model 47.1% vs 44.8% implied @ 2.23, modest +5% value

⚽ RB Leipzig vs TSG Hoffenheim
🏆 Bundesliga

📊 Leipzig 2H avg 2.4 goals vs 0.9 in 1H — 7/10 games see most goals after the break
📊 Hoffenheim 6W-2D-2L, avg 2 goals and 6.1 shots on target — Away Win @ 3.45 has +5.4% value
📊 Under 2.5 @ 3.00 has +15.7% value — model 38.6% vs 33.3% implied, fade the public goal rush
📊 Hoffenheim avg 12.2 corners/game, O9.5 in 8/10 and O11.5 in 7/10 — Over 10.5 corners @ 2.00 justified
📊 Leipzig 2.12 xG but only 1.6 scored — BTTS & O2.5 @ 1.61 consistent with regression-up narrative

Don't place a bet this weekend until you've read this.

38 games across the PL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga & Ligue 1.

You're going to want to bookmark this 👇🧵 ⚽ Brest vs Olympique Marseille
🏆 Ligue 1

📊 Marseille's last 10 games average 4.6 total goals
📊 Over 2.5 has landed in all 10 of Marseille's last 10
📊 Marseille have scored 26 and conceded 20 in their last 10
📊 Brest have scored in 9 of their last 10
📊 Brest have 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home games
📊 Marseille score 3.2 goals per game away from home
📊 9 of Marseille's 10 away matches went Over 2.5
📊 In 7 of Marseille's last 10, most goals came after the break
📊 Marseille generate 15.3 shots and 6.7 on target per game
📊 Marseille overperform xG: 2.6 actual goals vs 1.77 xG per game
📊 Over 4.5 cards in 7 of Brest's last 10 with a red card in 3
📊 41 goals across both sides' last 20 games combined
📊 Last 10: Brest is defensively tighter (13 conceded) than Marseille (20)
📊 Model projects 4.1 total goals for this match

There is a lot of value in player booking markets.

But 99% of people use basic stats and poor research methods.

Here's how you can filter through thousands of players in seconds to find high-potential players for bookings: Finding high-potential players comes from qualifying multiple rules at once. A player might make 2+ fouls per game, yes, but how many games have they completed? Who were the previous cards against? All of these questions (and more) formed the UI below. Let me show you more.

This morning in Australia we have a few teams looking to continue their impressive goal-scoring efforts, and some hoping to break certain trends. I'll take a look at them in the tweets below 👇 Cockburn has scored in each of their opening 4 games, winning just once. Each of those games has also seen 3 or more goals being scored. They host Sorrento, who has already scored 5 goals in 2 games this season. More: oddalerts.com/set/cockburn-c…

I have been betting on BTTS for a long time. Here is 5 key lessons I have learnt over the years.

🧵👇 1️⃣ The first lesson is to focus on the away side. I give more weight to their performance and ability to score.

🤝 Haaland is on his way to City, as predicted in millions of #FM22 saves.

⬆️ I'm currently enjoying a long-term save with Blackpool but there's just no hope of breaking into the elite whilst he remains at City. #MCFC

🧵 Let's take a look at his City career in the year 2033... This is what his profile looks like at 33 YEARS OLD. There is just no letting up for this beast, and he seemingly gets better with age. 18-20 attributes everywhere you look. Silly stuff.

🗣️ How will Steven Gerrard's team talk go tonight? #AVLLIV

Here are my thoughts and what I'm betting on tonight. MEGA-thread 🧵 🔴 Liverpool is massive favourites, obviously. There is little to suggest that Gerrard will finally beat one of the top 6 teams. Since he took over, he has picked up just 1 point from a possible 18 against top 6 opponents. The single point came against Manchester United.