Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 18, 2023 6 tweets 6 min read Read on X
NEW: #Ukrainian forces continued #counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.

Details below and in tonight's update on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar061723 ImageImageImageImage
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks west and south of #Kreminna. isw.pub/UkrWar061723 Image
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations near #Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar061723 Image
4/ The Russian MoD and other Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian ground attacks on the #Avdiivka-#Donetsk City line. isw.pub/UkrWar061723 Image
5/ Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near the administrative border between western #Donetsk and eastern #Zaporizhia oblasts. isw.pub/UkrWar061723 Image
6/ Ukrainian forces also conducted counteroffensive operations southwest and southeast of Orikhiv in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to two kilometers in multiple unspecified directions in southern #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar061723 Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Dec 14
Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. 🧵(1/8)

(📸: @Maxar) Image
Overview of the northern section of Russian Hmeimim Air Base on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Overview of the Russian naval base at Tartus on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
2/ Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 13 that an unspecified source familiar with the matter stated that Russia is currently negotiating with unspecified new Syrian "authorities" about maintaining Russia's military presence at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus. Image
3/ Maxar satellite imagery from Dec. 13 shows two Russian An-124 military transport aircraft preparing to load cargo while a Ka-52 helicopter and elements of an S-400 air defense system are likely undergoing preparations for transport at Hmeimim Air Base.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 14
NEW: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.

Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
3/ Syrian Democratic Forces: The SDF is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi announced that the SDF plans to negotiate its role in a future Syrian government, likely to prevent further unrest within Arab populations and militias under the SDF.Image
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Read 7 tweets
Dec 13
.@Maxar collected new satellite imagery this morning (December 13th) of the two primary Russian military bases in Syria—Khmeimim airbase near Latakia and the port/naval base at Tartus. Details ⬇️🧵(1/4) Image
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2/ At Khmeimim, @Maxar imagery shows two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at the airfield—both with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load equipment/cargo. Image
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3/ Nearby, @Maxar has captured a Ka-52 attack helicopter being dismantled and likely prepared for transport while elements of an S-400 air defense unit similarly prepare to depart from its previous deployment site at the airbase. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Dec 11
NEW: Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.🧵(1/X)Image
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2/ Russian forces have advanced in western Novyi Trud and along the E50 highway south of Dachenske, narrowing the small pocket west of the E50 highway and south of the Novyi Trud-Dachenske line. This advance places Russian forces about 6km south of Pokrovsk. Image
3/ Russian forces will likely continue efforts to close the pocket between Novyi Trud and Dachenske in the coming days, as doing so will provide them a stronger position from which to assault Shevchenko (just northwest of Novyi Trud and southwest of Pokrovsk). Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11
🧵(1/8)

Sentinel-2 imagery from Dec. 10 collected by @kromark shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. x.com/kromark/status… x.com/TheStudyofWar/…Image
2/ @MT_Anderson identified 4 Russian ships within this radius as of Dec. 10—the Adm. Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Adm. Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, & the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.
3/ Satellite imagery from December 9 indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of December 10.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 9
The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 🧵(1/5) Image
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2/ Russia has leveraged its Tartus naval base to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO's southern flank, and link its Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean Sea. Image
3/ The loss of Russian bases in Syria will likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts, and Africa Corps rotations, particularly weakening Russia’s operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. Image
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Read 5 tweets

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