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Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Aug 16

NEW: US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15. In a joint press conference, Putin addressed the crowd first and spoke in Russian, reiterating several long-standing Kremlin information operations about the war in Ukraine, Russian history, and the US-Russia relationship.

Putin said nothing to indicate that he has moderated either his war aims or his willingness to compromise on them and reiterated language he has used since 2021 to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

Trump stated that the United States and Russia did not come to a firm agreement about the war in Ukraine.

Russia conducted drone and missile strikes in Ukraine in the hours before the August 15 Alaska summit, causing civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure.

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

2/ Ukrainian officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian counterattacks are stabilizing the situation east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk).

The Russian military command is reportedly trying to redeploy forces and means to reinforce and exploit the penetration near Dobropillya but has so far been unsuccessful.

ISW continues to assess that Russia's use of drone strikes to generate battlefield air interdiction (BAI) effects in the Ukrainian near rear is severely hindering Ukrainian evacuation efforts in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya area.

3/ Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on August 14 to 15.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.

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Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Aug 15

NEW: Russian and US officials further clarified the details of the upcoming August 15 Alaska summit. 🧵(1/4)

Other Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is likely to use the Alaska summit to try to deflect attention away from peace negotiations with Ukraine and towards the Russia-US relationship in order to court the Trump administration into offering Moscow sorely needed economic rapprochement.

The Kremlin is coming to Alaska with a severely weakened domestic economy, which affords the Trump administration significant leverage during the summit.

US President Donald Trump expressed concerns about the success of a potential secondary meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin is also likely to try to distract from the war in Ukraine by pressuring the Trump administration to engage in bilateral arms control talks at the Alaska summit.

2/ Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation.

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated.

3/ The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) reported that the July 2025 civilian casualties from Russia's war against Ukraine were the highest on record since May 2022.

Ukraine's European partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.

Ukraine and Russia conducted their 67th prisoner exchange of the war on August 14.

Ukrainian forces struck a large oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of August 13 to 14.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velykomykhailivka.

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Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Aug 2

NEW: Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia on the night of August 1 to 2. (1/4)

Other Key Takeaways:
Ukraine also conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against Russia's defense industrial base (DIB), drone launch sites, and air defense systems on the night of August 1 to 2.

The Kremlin has yet to employ a coordinated response to US President Donald Trump’s August 1 announcement that he ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov parroted many of the same talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made during a press event on August 1 that blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in negotiations and signaled Russia's unyielding commitment to its longstanding demands.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.

2/ Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on August 2 that it conducted a drone strike against the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan City, one of the four largest refineries in Russia.

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar080225

3/ The USF reported that the drone strike started a large-scale fire at the refinery and caused significant damage to its production facilities. The USF reported that the facility produces about 840,000 tons of TS-1 aviation kerosene per year — about 8.4 percent of Russia's total TS-1 production — and produces up to 17 million tons of oil per year, or 6.1 percent of Russia's total oil refining.

Read 4 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jul 29

NEW: Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump's new deadline for Russia to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow's interest in continuing the war. (1/4)

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against civilian targets near the frontline and in the Ukrainian rear on July 28 and 29 that resulted in high casualties.

Ukrainian forces appear to be intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian military industrial facilities and transport networks.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

2/ Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account that Trump cannot dictate the timing of peace negotiations and that negotiations will end when Russia has achieved all of its war objectives — likely referring to Russia's original war aims, including regime change in Ukraine, changes to NATO’s open-door policy, and the reduction of Ukraine's military such that it cannot defend itself.

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar07292025

3/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed that Russia will continue its war against Ukraine in order to protect Russia's interests, despite Trump's July 28 announcement of the new 10- or 12-day deadline.

Read 4 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jul 16

(1/5) Iran may be prioritizing deeper strategic ties with China over its current partnership with Russia, though the extent of China’s willingness to support Iran remains unclear.

2/ Iranian hardline outlet Farhikhtegan reported on July 15 that Iran is frustrated over Russia’s “cautious stance” during the 12-Day War.
Iran is threatening to expand its nuclear program, likely in an attempt to deter snapback sanctions.

3/ US and Israeli airstrikes have likely hindered Iran's ability to carry out these threats to expand its nuclear program, at least in the short term.

Read 5 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jul 15

NEW: Kremlin officials dismissed US President Donald Trump's demand that Russia agree to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine within 50 days while promoting claims that Russia can withstand economic pressure and remains committed to achieving its war aims. (1/4)

2/ Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine's capitulation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new appointments within the Ukrainian government.

3/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, and Toretsk.

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