1/ EDX Markets, a non-custodial exchange, went live today.

That sounds like a contradiction right?

Here's background on EDX and initial thoughts. Image
2/ EDX Markets is a non-custodial cryptocurrency exchange that launched in 2022.

EDX is backed by Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments, and Charles Schwab, Virtu and others​​.
3/ Since its inception in September, EDX has facilitated trading in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash.

The exchange operates a marketplace, enabling firms to negotiate prices and execute trades.
4/ The exchange facilitates the matching of buy and sell orders, akin to the role of a traditional exchange like NASDAQ or NYSE.

The critical distinction is that EDX does not handle customer assets directly thereby mitigating certain types of custodial risks.
5/ The non-custodial aspect of EDX refers to its settlement process.

Unlike traditional exchanges that require customers to deposit assets (crypto) into wallets controlled by the exchange, EDX plans to use third-party banks & a crypto custodian to hold customer assets.
6/ The actual exchange of assets happens directly between the firms involved. This is how the 'non-custodial exchange' contradiction is resolved.

These trades are settled through the transfer of crypto & cash between firms.
7/ EDX plans to streamline settlement with the introduction of a clearinghouse later this year.

Notably, EDX has not explicitly stated that it seeks to operate as a Alternative Trading System.

I couldn't find a filing for this on Edgar
8/ The backers behind EDX are telling. Schwab/Fidelity are the largest consumer retail brokers in the United States.

Citadel and Virtu are the leading electronic market makers.

There's no mention of Nasdaq, NYSE, ICE or the legacy investment banks as investors.
9/ Digression: Citadel and Virtu are relative newcomers to Wall Street.

Their business models use technology to upend the way business is done by distintermediating traditional over-the-counter market making desks.
10/ In 2018, Citadel rolled out a CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) for Treasuries - a big deal in Fxed Income

Old-school fixed income trading desks benefit from opacity (over-the-counter, not electronic, no best bid/best offer, no order book). The CLOB is premised on transparency
11/ The Citadel CLOB impact was mixed.

Citadel's move was disruptive in that it sought to introduce a new trading paradigm in a market that had been dominated by large banks. This was seen as a potential threat to these banks, who stood to lose market share.
12/ There are factions on Wall Street with their own interests. Classic Wall St prefers OTC trading and opacity.

Citadel, Virtu, MarketAxess et al prefer to compete in transparent liquid markets.

Digression end.
13/ Back to EDX.

EDX avoids directly serving retail investors. Paradigm is an EDX investor - and also a backer of Coinbase.

EDX caters to institutions, providing API-based trading access rather than a traditional front-end user interface.
14/ It's possible that EDX may have aspirations to evolve into a Regulated ATS and ultimately a 'National Securities Exchange' (think Nasdaq or NYSE).

I'm speculating here...but the approach is awfully consistent with that patten. And that would be good for crypto markets.
15/ The longer-term aspirations for EDX might be to revisit Citadel's CLOB ambition and disrupt fixed income markets using crypto rails [5-year plan?]

EDX has not stated that ambition - but the inclusion of Schwab/Fidelity means there's a lot one can do.

I am speculating.
16/ At the same time, I do agree with @CampbellJAustin's take that the machinations to fit into the current regulatory framework.

*You don't need a clearinghouse to settle trades with blockchain*

That reflects on the current regulatory framework not on the EDX initiative.
17/ Segregation of Duties

EDX is applying federal securities laws to crypto

By utilizing third-party banks and crypto custodians for asset custody, EDX minimizes conflicts of interest and protects against asset misuse like we saw in FTX, Celsius, and DCG/Genesis issues etc.
18/ EDX is one path forward that is constructive for the sector.

Another path (heavy lift) remains a decentralized prime brokerage model.

20/ Assorted additional context:
- Why those 4 tokens? Least likely to be deemed securities.

- Historical fact: the Big Banks (JPM, GS, etc.) were opposed to decimalization initially. Stocks were traded in 1/8ths and 1/16th etc. The 'new faction' was comprised of folks like… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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More from @ramahluwalia

Jun 19
1/ Markets are down and the Vix is...down.

Why is the Vix sub-14? And what is the Vix?

Debrief from my convo with a equity volatility options trader.

What happens from here?

Charts below.

#VIX #volatility #nvidia
2/ Vix closed at 13.5 today.

The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days.

It is often referred to as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it represents the market's expectation of volatility. Image
3/ The Black-Scholes (or related equations) are used to back-out the implied volatility. Observed put/call prices on front-month contracts Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
1/ I went thru the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF S-1 filing.

There are novel elements to the BlackRock application.

This covers the background and what the main open questions are to asses likelihood of approval.

🧵
2/ First some perspective - The iShares Bitcoin Trust filing is at least the 28th attempt at launching a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, and we believe BlackRock is the 20th company to file.

(Source: Bloomberg @JSeyff @EricBalchunas kudos for excellent reporting!)
3/ The SEC has denied each application.

There are only 2 other applications that are open now alongside BlackRock: 21Shares and Ark.

The SEC must respond within 240 days under the 19b-4 process

Source: Bloomberg
Read 20 tweets
Jun 9
1/ Takeaways from Stanley Drunckenmiller Bloomberg Invest interview with @sonalibasak

"I've never had a down year, but I'm not sure I've made money in shorts."

- History of Bubbles
- Bearish on Macro, Bullish on AI
- Nvidia talk $NVDA
- Shoes to Drop
2/ Entitlements are a 'pig in the python'

The Baby Boomers are becoming seniors.

People are living longer. Social security, medicare, medicaid are taking a larger share of gov't spending.

>>Expect higher interest rates for longer.
3/ "The Present Value of Entitlements are $200 Tn. You'd have to raise taxes to 40% forevor or cut spending 30% forevor. Politicians are dodging the issue."

>> Inevitable: a) More taxes, b) Cuts to spending, c) higher inflation and rates [ or mix of the above ]
Read 23 tweets
Jun 6
1/ Chair Gensler is the Anakin Skywalker for the crypto. He was the Chosen One.

Ben Kenobi during the light saber duel: 'He taught MIT Blockchain! He wrote Op-Eds in Coindesk...Algorand...'

Then the turn to the Dark Side. Here's an explainer on what happened.
2/ Tattooine: Chair Gensler recognized the core ideals of decentralized networks:

'The potential to lower verification and networking costs is worth pursuing, particularly to lower economic rents and data privacy costs, and promote economic inclusion'

- Gensler (Coindesk '19)
3/ Tatooine:

..."blockchain applications might help jumpstart multiparty network solutions in fields that historically have been fragmented or resilient to change."

Gensler praised Algorand and its MIT creators.

coindesk.com/consensus-maga…

@baidakova
Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
1/ The Non-Farm Payrolls report is out.

The big takeaway?

14 months in a row where growth has exceeded expectations.

Where's the growth / losses? What's the impact on Fed Futures? Inflation? 🧵
2/ Markets expect rates to be unchanged at the next FOMC meeting in 2 weeks: 70% probability.

Recall last week markets had a 64% probability of a rate hike after the stronger than expected CPI print. Image
3/ The growth in employment is outpacing the pre-pandemic job growth.

Rememer a 200K+ jobs growth used to be considered a big gain? Image
Read 9 tweets
May 31
1/ How does Nvidia compare to Cisco, another hardware tech infra darling indexed to majo secular growth?

How does Nvidia compare to Cisco's valuation and growth rates during the peak of the Dotcom book?
2/ Cisco, one of the internet-era success stories, hit a peak price/sales ratio of 39 during the DotCom cycle.

Nvidia today has a price/sales of 36.

Comparably valued, both hardware infra businesses linked to secular sector growth.
3/ Cisco hit a peak P/E ratio of 200 during the Dotcom Boom.

Nvidia's P/E ratio today is ~175.

Since the DotCom peak, Cisco’s revenues grew 4X to to $49bn, with profits up 5X to $11bn.

Cisco stock has still not recovered to ATH Image
Read 12 tweets

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