Thread by @WarintheFuture

An interesting report on Ukrainian tactical adaptation, from @olliecarroll, in the operations by the Ukrainian armed forces to breach the Surovikin Line. 1/11 🧵 #FollowTheSapper

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1678106384540262401

2/ While it is uncertain how widespread this adaptation is, the Ukrainian tactical activities to conduct obstacle breaches appear to have assumed a lower signature to increase survivability and effectiveness.

3/ While breaching under armour, using special vehicles based on a tank chassis is a favoured method by Western military institutions, these platforms have easily detectable signatures for ground and aerial forces.

4/ Also, basic defensive doctrine for most armies emphasises targeting of combat engineers before and during their conduct of mobility support to an army during their offensive operations.

5/ Given minefields are generally covered by ‘observation and fire’ this clearance task can be extraordinarily lethal, even for the best armies - especially if they lack air cover.

6/ Therefore, Ukrainian sappers are adapting to lower their signature by undertaking dismounted mine clearance operations. Using these ‘infiltration tactics’, they are also seeking to enhance their survivability by dispersing more, and potentially achieve surprise.

7/ Dispersal is a tried & true response to increasing lethality on the battlefield since the beginning of the 1st Industrial Revolution. It is a key method to enhance one’s survivability. Dupuy graphs this lethality v dispersal gradient in “The Evolution of Weapons and Warfare”

8/ The trade off however is that breach activities are slower, exposing Sappers - and other elements of the breach and assault forces - to enemy direct and indirect fires. As such, the need for friendly fires, including HE, obscurants and EW, is increased

9/ Such is the brutal calculus that battlefield leaders must face in operations and wars of this type. There are often few good options in such a situation. All choices are relative.

10/ It remains to be seen how widespread this tactical adaptation is across the different Ukrainian axes of advance. But, as they have demonstrated throughout this war, the Ukrainian military is sure to be learning and adapting in order to defeat the Russian Army. End

Thank you to the following for the images and links in this thread: @CanadianArmy @TheEconomist