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exit266 Profile picture
@exit266
Aug 5 • 30 tweets • 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
What happened in the Black Sea between August 4th and 5th?

It was a lot so I put it all in a thread for you. 🚢💥

In the early hours of August 4th there were reports of Ukrainian USVs near Novorossiysk.
Eventually what appears to be USV footage of the hit on the Olenegorsky Gornyk (Ropucha Class) was released.
As @DavidHelms570’s points out, the weather on the morning of August 4th was very similar to past USV attacks.
Wondering how this attack might affect a Ro-Ro ship?
The Olenegorsky Gornyk (Ropucha Class) did make it back to port back to port but with a significant list.
The USV attacks on Russian ships may appear minor but their effect is large, you need to watch this video from @CovertShores.
This attack on the port of Novorossiysk has implications for Russian exports as well.
There was also a UAV attack on another Russian Black Sea port on the 4th.
Again early on the morning of August 5th we began to hear reports that the Kerch bridge had been hit by a drone attack again. It remains unclear as to what, if anything, happened to the bridge.
Soon after the reports of drones hitting the bridge there were reports of a ship being hit.
The ship was subsequently identified as the Russian owned tanker SIG.
We have evidence of exactly where the SIG was anchored. She was returning from a trip to Syria where it’s likely she delivered jet fuel to the Russian Air Force stationed there. It is most probable she was empty when struck.
After the attack the SIG called for help.
Photos of the damage appeared not long after the attack.
And a few hours later the USV footage was released.
The SIG is a legitimate military target because of it’s consistent use delivery military supplies.
We have evidence to demonstrate this.
You can read more about the SIG here.
What does it all mean? Russia does not have singular control over the Black Sea. The threat is real and could increase insurance and shipping costs for Russian goods.

At what point does Russia seek security guarantees for their ships in the Black Sea?
More information on SIG.
More information on the sanctions of the operator.
More information on the sanctions and sanctions evasions.
More information about the state of SIG during the attack.
More details on the port as well as ships in the area.
More from @bridget_diakun who is truly a great follow.
@bridget_diakun Ukraine issues a warning for Russian Black Sea ports.
@bridget_diakun More from @Osinttechnical on the SIG and its documented history.
The folks at @gCaptain detail out the bigger picture of the effects on Russian shipping.
@gCaptain Thankful to @sambendett for the translations of the Russian reponses.
@gCaptain @sambendett More on the history of these Ukrainian USV attacks in recent months.

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More from @exit266

exit266 Profile picture
Jul 16
Last Sunday we talked about Zelensky’s visit to Türkiye and Snake Island and how integral they are to any prospects of an option for proceeding without Russia.

Where are we at? 🧵⬇️
There are no more BSGI ships left in the Odesa area ports and the deal expires tomorrow July 17.
Where in past Russia was inclined to at least meet with @UN officials in the lead up to a renewal there have been no mentions of meetings this time around except for Erdogan’s suggestion that Putin may visit in August.
Read 17 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Jul 9
🧵⬇️
For a long time now I, & those I work with have believed that Snake Island & Türkiye are the key to making the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) work & today seems like a good time to discuss why that is & its implications for what may come next for Ukrainian grain exports… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On 24Feb22 Snake Island was attacked by two Russian war ships (the Vasily Bykov & the Moskva) who eventually landed troops & captured the island despite heroic resistance. @CovertShores has been maintaining a list of events.
​​ https://t.co/jqk9mmTWnehisutton.com/Timeline-2022-…
This capture was intended to pave the way for Russia to place air defense & other assets on the island to cement their control over the Western Black Sea & specifically the shipping corridor to Odesa.
Read 28 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Jul 1
17 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
994 (+0) ships outbound carrying 32,443,180MT,
962 (+0) ships delivered carrying 30,689,772MT.
30Jun

🧵⬇️ #bsgi #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative https://t.co/P1aHQBVz1ftwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
A ship full of corn to China.





No ships left Ukraine on 30Jun, inspections reported today were:
Inbound 30Jun 0
Outbound 30Jun 2
There are currently only 32 ships underway to their final destination, down from over 100 earlier.



Read 10 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 24
Regarding this story you may have seen this morning, I would hold off on believing it just yet. 🧵⬇️
As far as I can tell it all traces back to this Rybar post, please do send any earlier post you can find. Image
Most importantly, @YorukIsik reports that the ship did not transit the Strait recently which debunks at least a portion of it right away. Image
Read 12 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 24
55 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
953 (+0) ships outbound carrying 30,290,085MT,
910 (+0) ships delivered carrying 28,268,984MT.
23May

🧵⬇️ #bsgi #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
ImageImageImageImage
No ships left Ukraine on 23May, inspections reported today were:
Inbound 23May 4
Outbound 23May 1
There are currently only 43 ships underway to their final destination, down from over 100 earlier. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 23
56 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
953 (+0) ships outbound carrying 30,290,085MT,
910 (+3) ships delivered carrying 28,268,984MT.
22May

🧵⬇️ #bsgi #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
ImageImageImageImage
No ships left Ukraine on 22May, inspections reported today were:
Inbound 22May 1
Outbound 22May 2
There are currently only 43 ships underway to their final destination, down from over 100 earlier. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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