Thread by @Justin_Br0nk

A thread on the US approval for #F16 transfer to #Ukraine once pilot training is complete:
This US decision is important as it clears one of the obstacles to delivery from European operators - US authorisation as the original manufacturer.
Several issues remain, however: (1/10)

The first is who will service and turn the jets once in country? F-16 is a complex aircraft and the airframes likely to be sent are quite old. Even on high risk timeframes it will take years to train journeyman or master level maintainers who can supervise and assure. (2/10)

This means that just like any other FMS customer that the US has helped set up with an F-16 fleet, there will be a heavy reliance on civilian contractors to supervise and provide on-the-job training to Ukrainian maintainers in-country, even after months of initial training (3/10)

This is an issue because any F-16 bases set up inside Ukraine will be priority targets for Russian cruise and ballistic missile strikes. Therefore, more ground support equipment and contractors are needed to enable dispersed basing, and they’ll still be actively targeted (4/10)

This increases the political risk of Western contractors being killed by Russian strikes and in any case the US Administration has a ‘no boots on the ground in Ukraine’ policy, so no US contractor support is likely without a major policy change there. (5/10)

The F-16s likely to be sent are Dutch, Danish and Norwegian, but those air forces need their own F-16 maintainers + contractors to retrain on F-35 to support their current fleets. Thus, where the required maintainers come from is a key question that is so far unanswered (6/10)

Another key question is how to finance this in the near term. F-16 is cheap by Western fast jet standards but is still very expensive. Essential US support would have come out of the limited Presidential Drawdown Authority budget for military support to Ukraine as a whole (7/10)

Given a lack of European capacity, the key is finding a way to support Ukrainian Air Force to set up and sustainably operate F-16s without unacceptably drawing finite PDA budget away from more critical supplies of artillery, ammunition, tanks, IFVs, Patriot missiles etc.
(8/10)

It will also take significant time to train Ukrainian pilots as formation leaders to execute the complex 4-8 ship tactics required for the F-16 to operate effectively near the frontline under the concurrent threats of Russian layered SAM systems and fighter CAPs with R-37M (9/10)

Lastly, the weapons given will be critical to how effective an F-16 fleet can be. Key items like the long ranged AIM-120D variant of AMRAAM and JASSM standoff missile have yet to be approved, and may be deemed too sensitive to risk Russian (and Chinese) capture/ analysis (10/10).