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Peter Foster Profile picture
@pmdfoster
Sep 19 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
David Frosts column on #Brexit this morning goes in three phases:

- gaslighting readers over his “thin” deal being actually fat 🙄

- some actual truth on UK as rule taker

- and then total failure to admit he’s responsible for this mess 🧵1/4

telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/1…
First the gaslighting: his deal is a ‘reverse’ trade deal…it erects barriers, it doesn’t remove them. It’s only “broadest deal ever” if UK started from zero relations, rather than working down from Single Market membership. As he well knows, but I wonder about the readers.😬 /2 Image
Second the one bit of truth. To get closer to EU and fix bits of his rubbish deal, the UK will become a big rule taker. That will be hard. What Frost omits to say is that’s a pure function of the hideous position his #Brexit deal has put the UK in. And no seat at the table. /3 Image
Lastly, with Liz Truss levels of brass neck, Frost asks why no-one, not even Brexiter Sunak, speaks up for his pitiful #Brexit deal. Rather like they don’t beg for another Truss “growth plan”. 🙈 4/4 Image

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More from @pmdfoster

Peter Foster Profile picture
Jul 18
🚨🚨when ministers aren’t bashing UK universities they love to boast about them. Rightly. But unless something changes on funding there will be a lot less to boast about in 10 years time. /1

Here’s why via @ft Big Read…

on.ft.com/3rtAhGF
As Simon Marginson Higher Education prof at Oxford University explains the UK is in danger of getting back to the funding crisis levels that sparked need for tuition fees…/2 Image
These charts by @amy_borrett explain the basic problem. Triple whammy of inflation, #Brexit and risky over reliance on international students to x-subsidise undergrad teaching (previously used to make up research grant shortfalls). /3


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Read 8 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Jun 29
Went to the Midlands to talk to UK manufacturers about slow #Brexit strangle. @MakeUK_ CEO Stephen Phipson summed up the challenge:

"The question we must ask is, ‘would Airbus make all their wings in the UK, if they were making that decision now’?” /1

https://t.co/YwerpUopHKft.com/content/2f99a9…


What he's getting at is that #Brexit is not, as is still widely supposed, a one-off event that companies adjust to.

It's a permanent friction that makes UK companies a risker bet for your supply chain than an EU company. And that matters for maufacturing/2
That's because 50 per cent of UK exports are from manufacturing, and of those that go to EU, around 50 per cent feed into EU supply chains -- so they make bits of things that criss-cross Europe to become whole things that then get exported to rest of world. /3
Read 12 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Mar 22
This was interesting session. The 'chart wars' are a bit baffling if you're not an economist. I'm not. But I am a reporter. Gudgin argued #Brexit had no effect on the economy, but I don't know how that squares with all the conversations I've had with business in last 6 years/1
I get you can argue over the quantum of #brexit impact -- Springford model says -5.5% GDP, Portes reckons that fees too high, says thinks -2.5%...Jessop said -1%, but transitory...but "nothing" surely doesn't pass the sniff-test (to quote Gudgen on Springford's Doppelgangers /2
The empircal work by Jun Du at Warwick and Thomas Sampson at LSE on the numbers of traded lines/relationships, for example, can't amount to "nothing"; nor can UK parlous trade performance; even if non-differentiated impact on EU v RoW exports isn't yet explained/3
Read 6 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Mar 22
Graham Gudgin says that @JohnSpringford "doppelganger" method of analysing Brexit is a "statistical artefact" -- one that is used by Office of Budget Responsibility in their March 2023 forecast.

obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploa… == see p.47
Gudgin concludes that Brexit has had no real impact on UK economy. And talk about Brexit masks real reason for productivity crunch. OBR, Bank of England, CER etc and BBC/FT that report these studies are distracting.
Now @JohnSpringford responds to criticisms of his doppelganger method. Says that its misleading to compare individual countries. The Doppelganger composite smooths out differences, which is why it makes better counterfactual.
Read 4 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Feb 3
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨SO. David Davis tells @instituteforgov that Whitehall did a "cr*p job" of negotiating #Brexit...and then tells anecdote of ill-prepared @BorisJohnson making a "horlicks" of his contribution at Chequers. And you wonder where the problem was? 🤔/1
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Was the problem "cr*p" civil servants who Davis says were too close to the EU and blinded by the fact that their EU interlocuters were "nice" to them...or was it witless and confused politicians, too lazy to do their homework (see Boris above) and too weak to face trade-offs?/2
It really takes a special kind of cheek to blame Whitehall for the #Brexit mess -- and when they did come with crazy sh*t (like Theresa May's dual-track customs scheme in Chequers) it was because the politicians were too busy chasing unicorns to be sensible /3
Read 5 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Jan 17
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨NEW estimate that ending free movement has led to a 330,000 short fall in UK labour market, with lower skilled sector hit hardest #Brexit via @ft @jdportes @JohnSpringford @CER_EU @UKandEU /1

on.ft.com/3Xgc3L7
As @jdportes says, this change will have “profound” impact on UK labour market. Some will win, others lose. @JohnSpringford sees combo of “higher wages and prices and less output” in sectors that can’t automate /2
We’ve already seen, for EG, shift in NHS workforce and agricultural labour. Biz argues that yes we need to train/find homegrown talent but there is limit of availability, so govt needs to open more sectors to lower visa threshold/3
Read 4 tweets

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