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How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.
Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).
But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.
On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Keep in mind: in 2020, when Biden’s favorability was above water and Trump was at 41% job approval (and Biden was ~7 pts ahead in the final polling averages), Trump still came within 42,915 votes in AZ, GA & WI out of ~160M cast nationally of winning a second term.
Now fast forward to 2024 with tied national polls, 40% Biden approval, equally dismal Biden/Trump favorability, more economic pessimism, growing migrant/intl crises and the potential for RFK/West to double Jill Stein’s pull on campuses, etc.
Biden is in absolutely dire shape.
Biden is in absolutely dire shape.
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