Thread by @CalibreObscura

Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.

Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....

armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..

..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.

Anyway, next.

Footage of the IDF armour in action without infantry support is both surprising and against what would be expected. However, I suspect that IDF are choosing to minimise troop casualties and relying on the very potent protection of Merkava, Namer, etc to keep the vehicles working.

in the same breadth, clear that the IDF have learned lessons. Cas, whilst unknown, do not appear to be maximal, and aQ attacks so far have not been catastrophic. We haven't yet seen incidents such as the catastrophic Iraqi push into Mosul's al-Salam Hospital in December 2016.

It's also clear that the IDF are willing to employ what one can describe in the most charitable terms as extremely heavy indirect fire and air support against al Qassam positions.

This has clearly led to major, major CIVCAS. These actons should be investigated...

...as at least a large amount of them appear to me to be violations of IHL.

Next, it is perhaps less than surprising that al Qassam/al Quds forces hitting IDF forces that are now deep within the stip still appear to auxillary, lightly armed fighters. I have..

..barely observed anything heavier than a RPG-7 and RPK in use, very few PK/M etc. Even IEDs seem to be uncommon. I suspect that higher tier units (Say, Nukhba et al) are being held back for the dense urban battle. The same can also be said, it seems, for ATGM and SPG...

even tho you would think the open spaces of the agricultural and resort areas of the strip currently occupied by the IDF would be ideal for attacks that can take advantage of a long LOS and elevated positions within the city itself. This is quite interesting- will save opinions.

It is also clear, speaking of battlefield innovations, that al Qassam UAVs can have enormous tactical use for the group during this battle. We have seen some grenade drop footage, and one presumes they have been used for ISR too, but...

...we haven't seen many downed yet, and barely any footage. Again, I believe that these are a limited resource and has been held back. These factors I have mentioned above are, I believe one of the reasons that the IDF has so far progressed rapidly.

I would expect that the armed factions in the strip will be relying on the excessive casualties that are almost guaranteed from operations in the very dense urban areas of the city, as well as taking advantage of tunnels, to deter the IDF entering. I personally think...

..that we may be surprised that IDF capabilites developed just for this area of ops may prove to be more effective than expected.

However- 0 of this matters if the IDF simply intend to cut off, besiege & starve factions out. This would mean tremendous civilian sufffering...

...and one that I hope doesn't occur.

Regardless of this all, whatever comes next will be utterly brutal for all concerned.