Today Khamenei spoke with #IRGCterrorists Basij in #Iran for Basij week. Signaling how October 7 aimed to disrupt U.S. policy, like the Abraham Accords and its expansion, he said #alaqsastorm "literally managed to disrupt the table of American policies in the region..." 1/3
"and God willing, if this Storm continues, it will wipe out the whole table." Khamenei insisted "the Islamic Republic is not of the view of throwing Zionists and Jews into the sea" despite him praising the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. 2/3
And endorsing policies--like the referendum--would destroy the world's only Jewish state. He believes October 7 was so significant that it disrupted the map of the Middle East in favor of the Resistance Axis. This is why calls for a ceasefire right now are so dangerous. 3/3
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#BREAKING: Ali Akbar Ahmadian has replaced Ali Shamkhani as the secretary of #Iran's SNSC. Ahmadian is a former commander of IRGC's Navy, chief of IRGC's Joint Staff, & head of IRGC's Strategic Center. 1/4 apnews.com/article/iran-s…
Shamkhani was the last vestige of Rouhani administration in SNSC. Raisi has been seeking to replace him for some time, but it is only now Khamenei consented. I don't expect there to be much change from Shamkhani to Ahmadian, but Ahmadian lacks Shamkhani's unique skill set. 2/4
Shamkhani was an ethnic Arab and had survived and thrived in administrations across factions. Ahmadian has no such political experience, serving solely as a career military man. However, like Shamkhani, Ahmadian is a strategic thinker and has an IRGC naval pedigree. 3/4
Today #Iran's supreme leader spoke to MFA officials and ambassadors. He notably spoke about the need for expediency, but he claimed that the concept of "heroic flexibility"--which he used to justify nuclear negotiations in 2013--was misunderstood by those at home & abroad. 1/4
He said expediency means finding a way to overcome difficult obstacles & continue the way to reach the ultimate goal. A telling remark coupled with Abdollahian saying at this meeting they have restored balance to foreign policy away from JCPOA's dominance in Rouhani years. 2/4
At the same time Khamenei made another veiled criticism of the Rouhani years saying "we have had cases where our diplomacy was, to put it accurately, the diplomacy of groveling." 3/4
In keeping with the core Judaic values of tikkun olam, we today are announcing the formation of The Jewish Committee to Support #WomanLifeFreedom in #Iran. We have all been moved by the bravery of the Iranian people & the activism & unity of the diaspora. 2/5 #MahsaAmini
Our mission is to connect the American Jewish community with the Iranian diaspora to support their efforts to amplify the voices, vision, and dreams of the Iranian people in Western capitals. We will be offering grants to those committed to the #WomanLifeFreedom movement. 3/5
Important. I asked which force in #Iran—MOIS or IRGC—plotted against @AlinejadMasih in July as indictment Friday didn’t mention. @IranIntl reports it was IRGC-QF. If true, this should provide EU grounds—hot off the press—to sanction #IRGCterrorists. 1/4
This network is heavily involved in the Caucasus. There is a specific mention of IRGC-QF Unit 840 working on Masih plot. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, who was killed in Iran last year, served under unit’s head Yazdan Mir. *Unit 840 has also plotted assassinations in Europe.* 2/4
Timing here is interesting in the plot against Masih took place at a time when there were changes in the IRGC-IO. A series of botched operations in Turkey culminated in Hossein Taeb’s ouster. Some of those IRGC-QF operatives implicated in Masih plot had background in Turkey. 3/4
Some commentary here is exasperating. A "no deal, no crisis" dynamic does not take into account in October 2023, UNSCR 2231's missile restrictions on #Iran are scheduled to be lifted. U.S. and E3 can't just sit idly by. That's why snapback is needed. 1/4
“No one wants the JCPOA to die like this,” said a senior EU official. Plenty of people in U.S. and Europe do--they're uninterested in giving IRI a lifeline. This nostalgia and attachment to a product from 2015 is unhealthy and detached from reality. 2/4
This logic should be discarded. An #IRGCterrorists designation is how you build leverage to telegraph to #Iran's regime it will not be business as usual. EU's problem has been it's too consumed over preserving JCPOA and not developing a comprehensive policy. 3/4
A few thoughts about @USEnvoyIran's reported meetings with #Iran's UN ambassador. U.S. has an obligation to bring American hostages home & these meetings could have been about those cases. It may have also been telegraphing red lines on nuclear file. 1/5
Engagement between U.S. & Iran at UN in New York isn't new, even though Khamenei prohibited direct contacts during Vienna negotiations. That being said, releasing funds to Iran now would be a terrible idea--it risks being construed as an external intervention amid protests. 2/5
That's especially true if there are no strings attached amid a lengthy list of Iranians who are at risk of execution & who are being abused. The U.S. has brought home hostages before without the release of funds--see Xiyue Wang & Michael White. 3/5