I have been repeatedly warning for decades that the climate and ecological crisis, could create major food shortages and threaten our civilization far earlier than predictions imply.
As I spelled out in this thread only 2 days ago, if extreme weather events line up around the world in any given year. Extreme rainfall in some areas, lack of rainfall in others, extreme heat in others, hurricanes, - it'd cause global food shortages.
We have already seen many regional agricultural impacts, which can be compensated, by surpluses elsewhere. But what happens, if there's a perfect storm and various impacts, cause shortages across the globe?
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As climate change progresses, this is made more and more likely. We are already seeing a huge variety of climate impacts around the globe, from wildfires, flooding, drought, intensified tropical storms, etc. What I say, is not hypothetical, it's happening now.
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There is the very real possibility, that if this extreme weather lined up in a certain way, it could massively impact global food production in a given year. Before accusing me of raising hypotheticals, let me point to what is already happening.
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As I make clear in my thread 2 days ago, this risk starts this year, with the El Nino effects, causing warming in excess of 1.5C. I am not saying it is going to happen this year, simply that there is a quantifiable risk of it occurring.
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That we have sleep walked into a potential avoidable catastrophe, by taking no meaningful action in the last 30 years, and making no proper preparations for this eventuality.
As I make clear, food shortages don't have to be absolute to have major societal impacts.
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In a free market economy, restricted supplies of food commodities, will cause hyperinflation, making food unaffordable to many, with massive potential societal political, and geo-political implications. The free market system, itself is a major liability.
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The free market system, may drive prices down in times of surplus, but conversely, it also drives up prices in times of restricted supply. We are now facing the realistic prospects of restricted food supplies, due to climate change. It is a dangerous combination.
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I agree with the wonderful @vanessa_vash's wisdom here. Potential climate related food shortages, are no longer just an African problem, and the world should never have seen it like this. Climate Justice and equity, are important dynamics.
Once again, I am not trying to spread alarm. I am just pleading for realistic thinking and analysis.
That we are now planning to survive on luck, just hoping that extreme, climate change driven weather, doesn't combine in an unfortunate way, is dangerous and reckless.
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None of this danger is inevitable, and it is avoidable, if we come together, to solve this crisis cooperatively. This is the danger of the artificial competition, in the current neoliberal system, in that it inhibits cooperation, by design. We need joined up thinking.
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I think we need to sound the alarm, not just about climate change itself, but if our governments, corporations, and financial institutions, have ever really committed to addressing the climate crisis. If the whole supposed campaign has been a fraud.
Ever since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, our governments, and big business, have supposedly been committed to addressing the climate crisis. The most obvious way to achieve this, was to reduce emissions, by phasing out fossil fuels. But our governments never committed to this.
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Governments and big business, were always very careful, to avoid any commitment to any meaningful action, to reduce either the production or burning of fossil fuels. The can was always kicked further down the road. Resulting in a continued rise in emissions.
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I have become increasingly alarmed at the totally unrealistic thinking and dialogue, surrounding the climate and ecological crisis.
This is my reason for threads on matters like blaming the human species for the climate crisis, or human driven megafauna extinctions.
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I keep seeing topics like this crop up, in discussions about the climate and ecological crisis.
They are total distractions, sending people down completely blind alleyways of thinking.
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The reason I usually try to remain focused on the very rich, billionaires, corporations, governments, politicians etc, is not to blame them, or scapegoat them, as is repeatedly claimed. It's because they have all the power and influence.
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3) the level at when our civilization becomes impossible.
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All these are essentially unknowable, but there seems a lot of consensus, on how around 3C of warming, it'd make it difficult for our civilization to persist.
However, there could be serious problems that could lead to the collapse of our civilization at a much lower level.
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Not once have the advocates of the "overkill hypothesis" and human induced ancient megafauna extinctions, ever attempted to even acknowledge, let address the enormous inconsistencies in the "overkill hypothesis". They just make further unsupported assertions.
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They ask further questions, which are impossible to answer, such as why didn't these species become extinct in previous interglacial periods. When we have no evidence to properly compare the Holocene to these previous interglacials. This is not debate.
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@AnnieLeymarie @LandEthics @JCSvenning As I've said, I wasn't looking for an apology. But I did tell you very clearly that I had no memory of blocking Dr Gill on this issue. You carried on saying this.
Let me explain why I said I was going to close down any attempted debate on this matter.
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@AnnieLeymarie @LandEthics @JCSvenning Over a very long time, I have put up a huge number of major inconsistencies over the "overkill hypothesis", which has more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese. It really shouldn't exist, and should never have got past peer review.
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@AnnieLeymarie @LandEthics @JCSvenning Despite me repeatedly laying out these inconsistencies, citing massive evidence. The advocates for the "overkill hypothesis" have yet to even acknowledge any of the major inconsistencies in the "overkill hypothesis" I've highlighted.
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I want to briefly outline my objection, to early humans, caused the megafauna extinction meme, but most of all, how it is deeply damaging to an understanding of the climate and ecological crisis. Highly misleading, and distorts thinking.
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I think most people are familiar with the "overkill hypothesis". This started out, that shortly after humans arrived in the Americas, the megafauna, Mammoths etc, died out, and that this was due to humans overhunting them.
This was expanded to other regions of the world, and often used to support the claim, that humans as a species are inherently destructive. That actually, the modern climate and ecological crisis, is just a continuation of the long history of our species.
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