Thread by @dogemperor

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ Because of two or three primary factors:

a) A lot of skewed polls (yes, even the "high quality" polls are *significantly* skewed towards populations that tend to vote R):



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https://x.com/dogemperor/status/1845845677718274335

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ b) There is a distinct belt of states (ranging from parts of the Midwest through the South and Appalachia, particularly in the "Bible belt") that upwards of 45% or more of registered and active voters are Christian Nationalists (either adherents or sympathisers)

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ Here is the PRRI study on Christian Nationalism and support in different parts of the US:

3/xprri.org/research/suppo…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ A Pew Research study also found similar findings (and showing overall something like 15-20% are "hard" Christian Nationalists)

4/xpewresearch.org/religion/2022/…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ c) Christian Nationalists have had a political engine literally since before Ronald Reagan was elected (and arguably starting as far back as the Southern Strategy, and yes, related to "segregation academies" losing tax-exempt status

5/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1661537…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And in particular, the Christian Nationalist political engine has focused heavily on primaries, state-level races, and nonpartisan races as well as takeover of state GOP conventions (and explicitly taking advantage of the fact these tend to be lower-turnout races).

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ 2020 set a *record* turnout--of *only 66% of registered voters* in the general election
2018 set a record for a midterm--at *only 49%* of registered voters
2022 midterms only had *46%* of registered voters in the general

That's the GENERAL, not even primaries

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ In another Pew Research study, ***ONLY A THIRD OF PEOPLE WHO ARE REGISTERED VOTERS*** participated in all three general elections

There are something like 4.4% of voters who didn't vote in 2022 (and did in 2018 and 2020) who are registered D

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And that same study shows that white people are MUCH more consistent voters than other racial/ethnic groups, and--historically--a low percentage of people under 50 who regularly come out to vote

(Which is why youth outreach is SO important!)

9/xpewresearch.org/politics/2023/…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And--again--that particular poll shows that Protestants--including Christian Nationalist evangelicals--are STRONGLY in the majority with R voters including a *third* of R voters

10/xpewresearch.org/politics/2023/…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ d) Probably THE largest predictive factor for whether someone will vote for TFG is if they are a member of a New Apostolic Reformation church or a church that has been "NARasitized" (substantially shares tenets with NAR)

11/xreligioninpublic.blog/2020/05/11/tru…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And, for all intents and purposes, evangelicalism in the US is increasingly "NARasitized" (even outside of denominations that have traditionally been part of Pentecostalism or even Wesleyan churches or Holiness Movement)

12/xreligioninpublic.blog/2024/05/13/bel…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ Due to the fact that the NAR is a paradenominational movement *and* that at least part of its strategy involves even the hostile takeover of mainline Christian churches from within, it is *very* difficult to get a bead on how many NAR churches & adherents exist

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ and these figures will vary anywhere from 3 to 33 million adherents, but *functionally* probably anywhere from 15-20% of Americans generally and likely closer to 45% or more of Americans within the "Christian Nationalism Belt"

14/xmotherjones.com/politics/2024/…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ NAR theology is INHERENTLY Christian Nationalist, and of a particularly authoritarian nature

15/x100daysinappalachia.com/2024/09/what-i…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And a recent PRRI study shows there is a strong association with authoritarianism (including authoritarian childrearing styles and domestic styles) and Christian Nationalism

16/xprri.org/research/one-l…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ That same survey ALSO gives one of the first good views on how deeply America has been "NARasitized" generally--around 25% of Americans actually believe in some form of "Seven Mountains" theology, and 17% believe in some form of British Israelism/"America as Promised Land"

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ (Of note: That last one is ALSO a hallmark of specifically "Manifest Sons of God"-lineage--actual core NAR. It ultimately stems from an old belief that white people were the "Ten Lost Tribes of Israel", and occasionally goes *extremely* antisemitic in nature.)

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ That said--something like 65% of Republicans do espouse some kind of apocalyptic/"spiritual warfare" mentality, including 76% of people who primarily consume conservative news sources, and 69% of "primarily Fox News" viewers.

(This becomes important shortly.)

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ 39% of Republicans believe in some form of Seven Mountains theology (NAR distinctive), and 30% of Republicans believe in some form of British Israelism/"America as Promised Land" (a NAR/Dispensationalist distinctive)

It gets worse when we focus on white folks...

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ If one just focuses on people who identify as "white evangelical Protestants" in the study, *48%* believe in some form of Seven Mountains theology (NAR as hell), and 33% believe in some form of British Israelism/"America as Promised Land" (again, NAR/Dispensationalist)

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ e) And this becomes important because it brings up a point I have tried to emphasize in 20 years of writing on NAR Christian Nationalism:

We are not dealing with a normal political movement.

We are dealing with a coercive religious group with political aspirations.

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ NAR Christian Nationalism has been recognized as a harmful cult/coercive religious group in Australia since around 2004-2005 (when walkaways from Hillsong started seeking help from groups more akin to working with ex-members of $cient0logy or the Moonies).

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ General recognition of the NAR as a coercive religious movement has been slower in the US, but by 2017 there was a wide agreement amongst cult experts that the NAR has enough "danger signals" as a movement to be considered a coercive religious movement.

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ NAR churches are typically set up very much like an MLM "Pyramid" structure, with an extremely authoritarian structure (@andre_gagne1 has written an excellent recent book on the NAR, an interview re that book here: )

26/xbroadview.org/why-white-evan…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 And New Apostolic Reformation Christian Nationalism effectively has a *religious mandate* for countries to be taken over by hook or by crook, which is LITERALLY what that whole "Seven Mountains" thing is about

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 Very few people actually get what it's like to be in a cult (unless they're a political refugee from a dictatorship, or were raised in a cult or a former cult member themselves).

I write about how cults work, and the inner psychology of cult members

28/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1543971…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 And yes, this even extends to the home level (which is WHY I have emphasized the Post-It Note Strategy for GOTV).

This is also why JD Vance's horrendous misogyny DIRECTLY appeals to male Christian Nationalists

29/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1636017…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 It's also notable that experts on coercive religious groups and cults of personality *increasingly recognize MAGAtism in and of itself* as a political cult, with the same harmful characteristics that the NAR or QAnonsense have as coercive religious movements.

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 Coercive movements, *as a rule*, block their users off from any information critical of the movement--whether it be claims that non-cult-linked media is Religiously Bad or overtly Owned By The Enemy, or via "thought terminating cliches" that trigger a Rage Button

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @andre_gagne1 And this is literally a phenomena (both the redefinition of phrases to have *strong* emotional triggers and in-group meanings AND isolation from outside news) that have been noted literally since George Orwell wrote "1984".

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ f) And THIS in turn explains why we HAVE to get every bit As Good in ensuring turnout in a Blue Tsunami (a literal series of Blue Waves) in every election, every time

So let's take that 66% voting in a big presidential election

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ From *Republican voters alone*, you have fully 30 percent (and in some states, as high as 45-48%) of people who espouse Christian Nationalism of some form, and upwards of nearly 40% who believe in SOME kind of Seven Mountains theology

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ Meaning that you LITERALLY have 40% of the registered GOP voter base who believe they have an Actual Religious Mandate to turn out Every Election (yes, including the primaries)

Meaning THAT is the group that's the GOP's core membership at this point

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And considering there are *slightly* more registered R's than D's on average, this means on average...in *any* given election, fully a fourth or more of voters are in fact full-on Seven Mountains Theology types actively VOTING for a theocracy because of a religious mandate

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And especially in primary elections (where on average participation rates can be as low as 15% of registered voters)...the Seven Mountains types are the ones who are ALWAYS part of that 15 percent.

They are INCREDIBLY motivated

37/xtheatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And at least some of the recent national polls ARE hitting areas that are heavy Christian Nationalist areas (and there are counties, including in TN and AL, where Christian Nationalists are actually a supermajority).

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ Pennsylvania has been a particular target of the NAR as well, to the point that one of the better websites reporting on Christian Nationalism is PA's own @BucksCoBeacon

It's also gotten attention of civil-rights groups like @splcenter

39/xsplcenter.org/year-hate-extr…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And at least one reason the NAR HAS gotten attention is partly from Project 2025 (which is their baby) AND because the NAR was (along with the racist-right) at the core of #J6 (both in instigating AND being involved)

40/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1546663…

@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ tl;dr THAT is why things are as close as they are:
a) we're literally fighting a cult that in and of itself is possibly 30% or more of registered voters
b) on average, only 45% show up to the polls (and MAYBE 66% on a BIG POTUS race)
c) To fix that involves NUMBERS.

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ As always: Polls don't vote. People do. We don't win if we don't come out in NUMBERS!

Check reg! vote.gov
Check your options! iwillvote.com
Make a plan to vote! threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763057…
Make a guide! threadreaderapp.com/thread/1800169…

AND VOTE IN NUMBERS.

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ And after 2024, you KEEP voting in NUMBERS.

Every election. Every primary. Even in the off years. Even in the odd years (*especially* in the odd years and the off years).

THAT is the way you build a Blue Tsunami and a durable movement.

Let's get to it!

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@nerdzsaywhat @KamalaHQ @threadreaderapp unroll